MKTX · MarketAxess Holdings
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $190.72
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
13.4% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $190.72, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are up 2.6% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $190.72, far over the $167 cash price, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500. A raised or competing offer above $167 per share would also prove the call wrong.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Catalyst
Key figures from the filings · Financials
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 6 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 210
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +0.8
- Operating margin (%)
- 35.4
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 352
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- 289
- Price to earnings (×)
- 19.9
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 6.3
- Enterprise value to operating income (×)
- 16.2
All filed numbers
What MarketAxess Holdings reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 210 | +0.8 | 35.4 |
| first filed | 218 | −0.5 | 41.1 |
| first filed | 233 | +11.9 | 43.2 |
| first filed | 209 | +3.5 | 36.3 |
| first filed | 209 | +1.0 | 41.0 |
| first filed | 220 | +11.0 | 41.9 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 74.8 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 292 | 53.9 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | −4.9 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 357 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 5.1 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 352 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 381 |
| Debt ($M) short-term borrowings | 92.0 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | 289 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) +9.8% on a year | 5.3 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | Not reported |
| Inventory ($M) | Not reported |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 1,275 |
| Market value ($M) | 5,817 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 5,528 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 6.3 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | 16.2 |
| Price to earnings (×) | 19.9 |
| Price to book value (×) | 4.6 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 6.1 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 9.8% of shares outstanding sold short, 5.5 days of average trading to cover, +7.1% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $1.1M |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $1.2M |
The thesis
MarketAxess Holdings' $167-per-share cash sale to Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) fixes the price holders receive, so the shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months than to beat it. What settles the call is the set of non-US approvals and the closing date, which ICE now puts in the first quarter of 2027.
ICE's Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 September 2026 says the US antitrust agencies granted early termination of the Hart–Scott–Rodino waiting period effective 21 October 2026, and that ICE now expects the merger to close in the first quarter of 2027. Earlier guidance, from the July 2026 announcement, was the first half of 2027. The filing says other required regulatory approvals remain.
The shares closed at $165.31 on 11 November 2026, below the $167 cash price. A news aggregator, Panabee, reported that stockholders approved the merger on 29 October 2026; the page describes itself as machine-generated and points to the company's 8-K for confirmation.
Bullish and bearish views on MarketAxess Holdings, Inc.
The bull case on MarketAxess Holdings, Inc. (MKTX), in brief: US antitrust condition is satisfied. The bear case: upside is fixed by contract.
Bull case
- US antitrust condition is satisfied. The Department of Justice and Federal Trade Commission granted early termination of the Hart–Scott–Rodino waiting period effective 21 October 2026, per a MarketAxess Form 8-K and ICE's 10-Q.
- Closing guidance moved earlier. ICE's Q3 2026 10-Q expects closing in the first quarter of 2027, against first-half 2027 at announcement on 29–30 July 2026. An earlier close shortens the time the shares trade below $167.
- Shareholder vote reportedly passed. Panabee reports approval at the 29 October 2026 special meeting, with 28.2 million votes in favour out of 28.3 million shares present.
- Financing is in place. ICE filed Form 424B5 prospectus supplements for senior notes issued to fund the acquisition, and its 10-Q refers to a bridge facility dated 29 July 2026.
- Analysts value the shares at the deal price. Morgan Stanley raised its target to $167 on 9 October 2026, per a Benzinga report.
Bear case
- Upside is fixed by contract. The 29 July 2026 merger agreement pays $167 in cash with no exchange ratio. The shares closed at $165.31 on 11 November 2026, so the gain from holding to closing is bounded by the deal price.
- Foreign approvals remain open. The 18 September 2026 proxy lists required approvals in Canada, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom and Singapore. ICE's 10-Q does not name which are outstanding.
- Downside is large if the deal breaks. The agreement has an outside date of 29 July 2027. MarketAxess has suspended earnings calls and monthly volume releases since 30 July 2026, so a termination would leave the shares to be valued on a business with little current disclosure.
- Insiders are selling at the deal price range. General Counsel Scott Pintoff sold 100 shares at $164.80 on 10 November 2026 under a Rule 10b5-1 plan, and director William Frank Cruger Jr. sold 6,164 shares at $163.20 on 10 September 2026, per SEC Form 4 filings.
- Last reported operating results are before the deal. MarketAxess reported second-quarter 2026 revenue of $218.4 million and net income of $68.3 million on 7 August 2026. It filed its Form 10-Q for the period ending 30 September 2026 on 6 November.
Price setup
The shares closed at $165.31 on 11 November 2026, against a 50-day average of $163.52 and a 200-day average of $153.42, both on adjusted closes. The three-month price change is 2.6%.
The 52-week high is $195.97, reached intraday on 2 March 2026, before the 29 July announcement; the last close is 15.6% below it. The 52-week closing low is $109.09, on 25 June 2026.
Closes from 4 November to 11 November ranged between $165.08 and $165.67, a narrow band just under $167. The price reflects a nearly certain cash payout and an expected first-quarter 2027 close; the price already carries the Hart–Scott–Rodino clearance and the reported vote.
Catalysts ahead
- ~31 March 2027 (est.): End of the first quarter of 2027, the window in which ICE now expects the MarketAxess acquisition to close. Closing pays holders $167 in cash; an earlier close shortens the time the shares trade below that price, and a slip past the window would signal a delayed foreign approval.
- 29 July 2027: Outside date in the merger agreement, subject to specified regulatory-related extensions. If the deal has not closed by this date, either party may have the right to terminate, which would put the shares back on the standalone business.
What would change the view
A daily close above $190.72, far over the $167 cash price, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500. A raised or competing offer above $167 per share would also prove the call wrong.
What it trades with
The shares follow the contract price and the odds and timing of closing, not equity-market direction. ICE's share price does not change what MarketAxess holders receive, because the consideration is all cash. A broad fall in financial stocks matters only if it affects ICE's willingness or ability to close. Credit-market stress that raised ICE's financing costs is the main outside link.
The evidence, claim by claim (7)
- DOJ and FTC granted early termination of the Hart–Scott–Rodino waiting period effective 21 October 2026, satisfying the US antitrust closing condition; ICE now expects the merger to close in the first quarter of 2027. ICE Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 September 2026 · as of
- Stockholders reportedly approved the ICE merger on 29 October 2026: 28.2 million votes in favour of 28.3 million shares present. Panabee news aggregator (machine-generated; confirm against 8-K) · as of
- Merger agreement provides $167 per MarketAxess share in cash, about $6.0 billion in equity value, with an outside date of 29 July 2027. ICE Form 10-Q and merger agreement · as of
- Morgan Stanley maintained Equal-Weight on MarketAxess and raised its price target to $167. Benzinga analyst-action report · as of
- MarketAxess reported second-quarter 2026 revenue of $218.4 million and net income of $68.3 million. MarketAxess Q2 2026 results · as of
- General Counsel Scott Pintoff sold 100 shares at $164.80 under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. SEC Form 4 · as of
- MarketAxess filed its Form 10-Q for the period ending 30 September 2026. SEC EDGAR · as of
Sources
Related · shared themes
GPN
Global Payments
Global Payments trades on a reported $40 billion CD&R and GTCR buyout, and nine brokers raised targets after in-line third-quarter results…
ADT
ADT
ADT Inc. trades as a pending $10.00-per-share cash buyout by Thrive Holdings, so its shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 than lead…
BMBL
Bumble
Bumble's shares are likely to trail the S&P 500 because they trade as a pending $6.05-per-share cash takeover by Ithaca Holdings, closing…
BRZE
Braze
Salesforce's agreed $47.50-per-share cash takeover of Braze caps the shares just under the offer, so they are more likely to lag the S&P…