BAK · Braskem

The thesis

Braskem's restructuring has no deal, and the shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months than to lead it. Shareholders withdrew their capital-injection offer on 6 November 2026 after bondholders rejected a proposal that included US$3.8 billion of debt converted into equity (Bloomberg). The creditor-support window that closes about 22 November 2026 settles whether the plan binds all creditors or judicial reorganization returns.

Braskem said on 12 November 2026 that it remains committed to a consensual solution for its capital structure, and company news the same day shows no agreement announced. The 12 November 2026 date was the last extension for agreeing the main commercial terms, per Braskem's 10 November 2026 reply to the securities regulator (CVM), as summarised by Brazilian press. Valor Econômico reported on 10 November 2026 that the parties had not agreed on Petrobras's contribution or on how much debt converts to shares.

Braskem's third-quarter 2026 results, published on 12 November 2026, show a weaker operation than the second quarter. Recurring EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation) was R$1.961 billion, against R$818 million a year earlier. The net loss was about R$1.1 billion, and leverage was 6.36 times net debt to recurring EBITDA at the end of September (press reports of the results release). The company also confirmed on 12 November 2026 that it did not make the 9 November 2026 payment on its R$1.2 billion 18th debenture issue, and said the stay under the extrajudicial reorganization covers the non-payment.

The ADR (American depositary receipt) closed at $1.13 on 12 November 2026. That is 79.0% below the 52-week intraday high of $5.39 on 13 May 2026, and its three-month change is −42.1%. The price already reflects a large equity dilution: the shares have fallen from a $1.95 close on 14 August 2026.

Bullish and bearish views on Braskem S.A.

The bull case on Braskem S.A. (BAK), in brief: talks have not ended. The bear case: the owners stepped back.

Bull case

• Talks have not ended. Braskem's 12 November 2026 statement says it remains committed to a consensual solution, and its 10 November 2026 notice to the CVM says negotiations continue. Both sides already agree on a US$2.25 billion subscription-rights offering, per Bloomberg on 26 October 2026.
• Creditor base is already signed. Holders of 39.6% of the affected claims backed the plan at filing on 24 August 2026, per Braskem's Form 6-K. The court admitted the filing on 28 August 2026.
• Operations sit outside the case. The perimeter of about US$10.9 billion covers financial debt only; suppliers, customers and payroll are excluded, per the 24 August 2026 filing. Brazil and South America contributed US$267 million of recurring EBITDA in the third quarter of 2026, per press reports of the results.
• Cash generation held in the stay period. Operating cash generation was R$2.2 billion in the third quarter of 2026, mainly from working capital, and cash generation before debt service was R$2 billion after Alagoas-related payments (euqueroinvestir, 12 November 2026). Leverage eased to 6.36 times from 6.74 times in June.
• Management denies asset sales. Braskem's CEO denied plans to sell US assets on 1 November 2026, per company news.

Bear case

• The owners stepped back. Shareholders pulled the capital offer on 6 November 2026 after meetings with creditors in New York, per Bloomberg. Braskem's October proposal had included US$1.2 billion from shareholders and third parties at a 20% discount to market value, per Brazilian press reports.
• The gaps are wide. Creditors asked for US$1.85 billion of guaranteed capital against Braskem's US$1.2 billion, per Brazilian press on 7 November 2026. Times Brasil reported that Petrobras cut its planned contribution from US$1.7 billion to US$1.4 billion, and that Petrobras and IG4 had not commented.
• Dilution is specific. Braskem proposed that creditors convert US$2.8 billion of debt into equity, and bondholders have been discussed at US$3.8 billion. Holders of the listed preferred shares do not vote on the outcome.
• Earnings fell and the quarter lost money. Recurring EBITDA in dollars was US$382 million in the third quarter of 2026, down 63% from the second quarter, with lower international petrochemical spreads cited by press (12 November 2026). Braskem Idesa contributed US$2 million.
• A coupon-type payment was missed. Braskem did not pay the R$1.2 billion 18th debenture instalment due 9 November 2026, covered by the court stay (company news, 12 November 2026).
• Deadlines keep moving. The company's 27 October 2026 filing said the 9 October 2026 target was missed and moved the date to 30 October 2026; the later extension to 12 November 2026 has also passed. Petrobras's director cited 24 November 2026 as the closing date, and left open a full judicial reorganization, per Agência iNFRA.

Price setup

The ADR closed at $1.13 on 12 November 2026, after a 52-week closing low of $1.06 on 5 November 2026. It trades below the 50-day average of $1.57 and the 200-day average of $2.92, both as of 12 November 2026. The three-month change of −42.1% compares with the $1.95 close of 14 August 2026.

Closes from 5 November to 12 November 2026 ran between $1.06 and $1.13. The shares have not recovered the $1.55 early-October low, the level a close would have to retake for the decline to reverse.

Catalysts ahead

• 22 November 2026: Close of the 90-day window to win majority support in each affected creditor class (Petrobras's director cited 24 November 2026 as the closing date). Reaching it binds all affected claims and fixes the size of the debt-to-equity swap and share offering; missing it puts judicial reorganization back on the table.
• 24 November 2026: Closing date for the extrajudicial recovery agreement cited by Petrobras's director William França. If the parties use the later date, a plan with the final conversion amount and share-offering price would show how far the listed shares are diluted.

What would change the view

A daily close above $1.33, which would sit over the early-November trading range and show the shares leading the S&P 500. A signed creditor agreement that converts less debt than the US$2.8 billion in Braskem's own proposal would also show the call wrong.

What it trades with

BAK moves with BRKM5 on B3 (the Brazilian exchange) and with the Brazilian real. The 26 October 2026 post-election selloff in Brazilian stocks hit the shares independent of the restructuring.

Petrochemical spreads and the Braskem Idesa Chapter 11 in Texas add separate drivers. Petrobras news matters most, because Petrobras is a co-controller and its capital decision is the sticking point.