SRZN · Surrozen
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $38.26
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
17.4% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $38.26, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are up 32.9% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $38.26, over the 52-week intraday high of $37.83 set on 25 September 2026, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500 despite the pending resale supply.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Health Care
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 9 November 2026
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 0.0
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- −100.0
- Operating margin (%)
- −207.4
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- −30.8
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- 100
All filed numbers
What Surrozen reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 0.0 | −100.0 | — |
| first filed | 5.0 | +408.6 | −207.4 |
| first filed | 5.0 | +408.6 | −209.1 |
| first filed | 0.5 | −19.4 | −2393.8 |
| first filed | 1.0 | −90.2 | −1107.3 |
| first filed | 1.0 | — | −917.3 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | Not reported |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: −390 | −130 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +37.4 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | −30.6 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 0.2 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | −30.8 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 100 |
| Debt ($M) | None reported |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) no debt reported | 100 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) | Not reported |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) at 30 June 2026, filed 6 August 2026 | 5.0 |
| Inventory ($M) | Not reported |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | −336 |
| Market value ($M) | Not available |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | Not available |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | Not available |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not available |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not available |
| Price to book value (×) | Not available |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | Not available |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): the share of shares outstanding is not available, 4.8 days of average trading to cover, +43.0% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $0 |
| 12 monthsfrom | $6.9M | $7.2M |
The thesis
Surrozen's cash now runs into 2029, but the shares at $31.88 already carry that news, and the resale registration for stock placed at $11.60 makes them more likely to lag the S&P 500 than lead it over three months. The Form S-3 due about 19 November 2026 settles whether new supply caps the rally.
The company reported on 9 November 2026 that cash and equivalents were $100.4M at 30 September 2026 and about $220.3M pro forma after October financing, enough to fund operations into 2029. The $95.1M second tranche of the March 2025 private placement closed on 20 October 2026, and the company raised about $29.8M net through its at-the-market program in October. Cantor Fitzgerald raised its target to $62 on 10 November 2026 and Guggenheim raised its target to $80 on 12 November 2026, both after the report.
The shares closed at $31.88 on 11 November 2026, 34.3% above the $23.73 close of 13 August 2026. SZN-8141, the lead drug for diabetic macular edema (DME), has no human efficacy data. The company guides Phase 1b topline data to the second half of 2027 and Phase 2a topline data to 2028.
Bullish and bearish views on Surrozen, Inc.
The bull case on Surrozen, Inc. (SRZN), in brief: runway removes the funding risk. The bear case: resale supply is next.
Bull case
- Runway removes the funding risk. Surrozen's 9 November 2026 results release shows $100.4M of cash at 30 September 2026 and about $220.3M pro forma, with operations funded into 2029.
- Dosing has started. The same release says the first patient was dosed in the open-label Phase 1b portion of the DUET study of SZN-8141 in DME, inside the Q4 2026 guide.
- A larger, comparative trial. The randomized Phase 2a portion expands from about 60 to 150 patients and tests two dose levels against Vabysmo (9 November 2026 release).
- Analysts raised targets after the report. Cantor Fitzgerald moved to $62 on 10 November 2026 and Guggenheim to $80 on 12 November 2026, both keeping bullish ratings (company news headlines).
- Spending is rising with the program. Research and development expense was $10.8M in the third quarter, against $7.8M a year earlier (9 November 2026 release).
Bear case
- Resale supply is next. Surrozen planned to file a Form S-3 within 30 days of the 20 October 2026 closing, which would let holders who paid $11.60 per unit sell registered shares. SEC filings through 9 November 2026 list no such S-3 yet.
- Large paper gains sit with insiders. Form 4 filings dated 22 October 2026 show Column Group III GP, a 10% owner, and director Tim Kutzkey each reporting an option exercise of 1,551,724 shares at $11.60 on 20 October 2026. The shares closed at $31.88 on 11 November 2026.
- Data are far away. Phase 1b topline data are guided to the second half of 2027 and Phase 2a data to 2028 (9 November 2026 release), so no efficacy result arrives inside the next three months.
- Headline loss is mostly accounting. Q3 2026 net loss was $129.7M, including $113.0M of non-cash fair-value changes on tranche and warrant liabilities (9 November 2026 release). Q3 earnings per share of $(11.02) compared with an estimate of $(1.10), according to a news report that day.
- Costs are climbing. General and administrative expense was $6.8M in the third quarter against $4.1M a year earlier (9 November 2026 release).
Price setup
The shares closed at $31.88 on 11 November 2026. That is 15.7% below the 52-week intraday high of $37.83 set on 25 September 2026, and above the 50-day average of $25.54. The 52-week closing low was $12.12 on 11 November 2025, close to the $11.60 placement price.
Recent closes were $31.65 on 4 November 2026, $29.00 on 5 November 2026, $31.00 on 6 November 2026, $32.00 on 9 November 2026, $32.64 on 10 November 2026 and $31.88 on 11 November 2026. The shares rose after the third-quarter report rather than fell.
The market has priced in the funding, the first dosing and the analyst target raises, while the registration of $11.60 placement stock is still pending. Price moves around the S-3 filing are the nearest test of demand at these levels.
Catalysts ahead
- ~19 November 2026 (est.): Form S-3 resale registration, due within 30 days of the 20 October 2026 second closing. Makes the $11.60 placement securities freely tradable; price and volume after it show whether new supply caps the shares near $32.
- 2H 2027 (guided): Phase 1b topline data from DUET for SZN-8141 in DME. First human data on the lead drug; the case for any sustained lead over the index rests on it.
What would change the view
A daily close above $38.26, over the 52-week intraday high of $37.83 set on 25 September 2026, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500 despite the pending resale supply.
What it trades with
Surrozen is a small-cap ophthalmology company without human efficacy data, and its shares tend to follow small-cap biotech risk appetite and financing events. No peer or index relationship is measured here, and the recent sample of sessions is too small to draw one.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Cash and equivalents were $100.4M at 30 September 2026 and about $220.3M pro forma after October financing; the company expects cash to fund operations into 2029. Surrozen Q3 2026 results release, 9 November 2026 · as of
- Q3 2026 net loss was $129.7M, including a non-cash $113.0M from changes in fair value of tranche and warrant liabilities; R&D was $10.8M and G&A $6.8M. Surrozen Q3 2026 results release, 9 November 2026 · as of
- First patient dosed in the Phase 1b portion of DUET; Phase 2a expands from about 60 to 150 patients versus Vabysmo; Phase 1b topline guided to 2H 2027 and Phase 2a topline to 2028. Surrozen Q3 2026 results release, 9 November 2026 · as of
- Surrozen closed the second tranche of its March 2025 private placement for $95.1 million. Company press release, 20 October 2026 · as of
- Column Group III GP (10% owner) and director Tim Kutzkey each reported an option exercise of 1,551,724 shares at $11.60 on 20 October 2026. SEC Form 4 filings, 22 October 2026 · as of
- Cantor Fitzgerald maintained Overweight and raised its price target to $62. Company news headline, 10 November 2026 · as of
- Guggenheim maintained Buy and raised its price target to $80. Company news headline, 12 November 2026 · as of
- The shares closed at $31.88 on 11 November 2026 versus $23.73 on 13 August 2026, a 34.3% three-month gain. Adjusted daily closes · as of
Sources
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