INBX · Inhibrx Biosciences
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $106.90
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
22.1% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $106.90, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 9.5% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $106.90, about 18% over the 11 November 2026 close of $90.59, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500. A third-quarter report that sets a dated Phase 3 start with funding secured would also show the shares leading.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Catalyst
Key figures from the filings · Health Care
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 13 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 2.0
- Operating margin (%)
- −1586.8
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- −133
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- −77.2
- Free-cash-flow yield (%)
- −10.8
All filed numbers
What Inhibrx Biosciences reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 2.0 | — | −1586.8 |
| first filed | 0.0 | −100.0 | — |
| first filed | 0.0 | −100.0 | — |
| first filed | 0.0 | — | — |
| first filed | 1.3 | +1200.0 | −2106.8 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | −38.7 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: −142 | −38.7 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +1.6 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | −133 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 0.0 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | −133 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 200 |
| Debt ($M) non-current long-term debt | 277 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | −77.2 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) | Not reported |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | Not reported |
| Inventory ($M) | Not reported |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | −85.9 |
| Market value ($M) | 1,230 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 1,308 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | Not available |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to book value (×) | Not meaningful |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | −10.8 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 23.1% of shares outstanding sold short, 16.8 days of average trading to cover, −0.5% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $6.3M | $279K |
| 12 monthsfrom | $6.3M | $279K |
The thesis
Inhibrx Biosciences has a real head-and-neck cancer response lead for ordastobart (INBRX-106), but the shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. The financing needs and the Phase 3 start date, both due in the third-quarter report expected in mid-November 2026, settle the call.
The 8 September 2026 Form 8-K reported confirmed responses in 48.3% of evaluable patients on INBRX-106 plus pembrolizumab, versus 26.5% on pembrolizumab alone. The shares then fell about 25.8% intraday on 28 October 2026, to a low of $70.09, from a $95.66 prior close, per MarketBeat, which gave no cause. The shares closed at $90.59 on 11 November 2026, 41.7% below the 52-week intraday high of $155.29 set on 22 April 2026.
The close of $80.28 on 5 November 2026 was followed by a rise to $91.74 on 9 November 2026. No company news or filing explains the rebound. The 50-day average of $96.79 and the 200-day average of $92.57 both sit above the last close.
Bullish and bearish views on Inhibrx Biosciences, Inc.
The bull case on Inhibrx Biosciences, Inc. (INBX), in brief: randomized responses favor the combination. The bear case: the market sold the shares around the ESMO slot.
Bull case
- Randomized responses favor the combination. The 8 September 2026 filing reported confirmed response rates of 48.3% versus 26.5% among 63 evaluable patients. Median progression-free survival, the time before disease progression or death, was 9.6 months versus 4.9 months at the 19 August 2026 data cutoff, and those survival figures are interim.
- Insiders kept buying through the decline. SEC Form 4 filings show CEO Mark Lappe bought 10,040 shares at an average $84.56 on 14 October 2026 and 10,000 shares at an average $99.88 across 25 September to 28 September 2026. Director Jon Kayyem bought 5,000 shares at $100.00 on 16 September 2026 and again on 23 September 2026.
- The HPV-positive subgroup points to a focused trial. The 8 September 2026 filing reported response rates of 80.0% versus 33.3% in the human papillomavirus (HPV)-positive subgroup, with 10 combination-arm and nine control-arm patients. The company plans to add about 50 HPV-positive patients before seeking Food and Drug Administration (FDA) alignment.
- Analyst targets sit far above the share price. MarketBeat lists a consensus rating of Moderate Buy with a $197.50 average target as of 28 October 2026. H.C. Wainwright rated the shares Buy with a $245 target on 24 August 2026.
Bear case
- The market sold the shares around the ESMO slot. Inhibrx scheduled the Phase 2 oral presentation at the European Society for Medical Oncology (ESMO) congress in Madrid for 25 October 2026. The 25.8% intraday drop followed on 28 October 2026, on volume of about 683,493 shares against a 311,010 average, per MarketBeat.
- The development timetable moved back. The 13 August 2026 quarterly filing planned a Phase 3 start in the third quarter of 2026. The 8 September 2026 filing put Phase 3 after the HPV-positive expansion and FDA alignment, and no new start date has been published.
- The efficacy sample is small. The primary analysis covered 63 evaluable patients out of 68 randomized. A 21.8-point response gap in a trial this size can narrow as follow-up accrues.
- The balance sheet leans on lenders. At 30 June 2026 the company reported $176.3M of long-term debt and a $(53.0)M stockholders' deficit, before the July Term C draw. The second-quarter 2026 net loss was $36.7M.
- Directors sold into the September spike. Director Kimberly Manhard sold 1,000 shares at an average $115.47 on 8 September to 9 September 2026 and 1,500 shares at an average $109.03 on 11 September to 15 September 2026, per Form 4 filings.
- Sell-side views are split. Citigroup restated a market perform rating on 18 September 2026, Weiss Ratings reissued a sell (d-) rating on 11 September 2026, and Wall Street Zen cut the shares to strong sell on 17 August 2026.
Price setup
The shares closed at $90.59 on 11 November 2026, with a three-month change of −6.6% from the $97.01 close of 13 August 2026. The close sits below the 50-day average of $96.79 and below the 200-day average of $92.57.
The 52-week closing low is $58.39, set on 27 March 2026. The 52-week intraday high is $155.29, set on 22 April 2026. The 28 October 2026 intraday low of $70.09 (MarketBeat) is the nearest reference point below the current price, and the 5 November 2026 close of $80.28 is the lowest close in the recent range.
The market has priced in a lasting drop in confidence: the shares closed at $91.74 on 9 November 2026, about 40% below the April high, even as the 8 September 2026 response data remain the company's headline result.
Beta is 3.81 per MarketBeat, which fits a thin share count of 15.7M weighted shares in the second quarter, so single-session moves of 8% to 10% are ordinary.
Catalysts ahead
- ~16 November 2026 (est.): Third-quarter 2026 results and Form 10-Q; the company has not announced a date. The 2025 report came on 14 November 2025 and the Q2 2026 10-Q on 13 August 2026. Would update HPV-positive expansion enrollment, the Phase 3 start date, cash needs, and any draw on the $225.0M Term D tranche.
- 19 November 2026: CTOS meeting in Seoul (19 November to 20 November 2026), where the company lists a presentation on ozekibart (INBRX-109). Adds data on the company's second asset, which matters more if sentiment on ordastobart stays weak.
What would change the view
A daily close above $106.90, about 18% over the 11 November 2026 close of $90.59, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500. A third-quarter report that sets a dated Phase 3 start with funding secured would also show the shares leading.
What it trades with
Inhibrx trades on its own clinical and financing news rather than on a sector driver. A beta of 3.81 per MarketBeat means broad biotech and market moves are amplified, but the 28 October 2026 drop of about 25.8% was far larger than any market move reported that day.
Lender warrants on 21,457 shares at a $93.21 strike, issued 16 July 2026, sit close to recent prices and add potential supply near that level.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- HexAgon-HN primary analysis: confirmed response rate 48.3% for INBRX-106 plus pembrolizumab versus 26.5% for pembrolizumab alone among 63 evaluable patients. Inhibrx Form 8-K, Item 8.01, 8 September 2026 · as of
- Interim median progression-free survival was 9.6 months for the combination versus 4.9 months for pembrolizumab alone at the 19 August 2026 data cutoff. Inhibrx Form 8-K, Item 8.01, 8 September 2026 · as of
- Shares fell about 25.8% intraday to roughly $71.00 (low $70.09) from a $95.66 prior close, on volume of about 683,493 against a 311,010 average; the article gives no cause. MarketBeat, 28 October 2026 · as of
- CEO Mark Lappe bought 10,040 shares at an average $84.56 on 14 October 2026, and 10,000 shares at an average $99.88 on 25 September to 28 September 2026. SEC Form 4 filings, 14 October 2026 and 28 September 2026 · as of
- Director Kimberly Manhard sold 1,500 shares at an average $109.03 on 11 September to 15 September 2026, after selling 1,000 shares at an average $115.47 on 8 September to 9 September 2026. SEC Form 4 filings, 10 September 2026 and 15 September 2026 · as of
- Consensus rating is Moderate Buy with a $197.50 average price target; one Strong Buy, two Buy, two Hold, one Sell. MarketBeat, 28 October 2026 · as of
- Long-term debt of $176.3M and a stockholders' deficit of $(53.0)M at quarter-end; Q2 2026 net loss $36.7M. Q2 2026 Form 10-Q · as of
- Closed at $90.59 on 11 November 2026, below the 50-day average of $96.79 and the 200-day average of $92.57; 3-month change −6.6%. Adjusted daily closes · as of
Sources
- Inhibrx Biosciences (NASDAQ:INBX) Stock Price Down 25.8% - Time to Sell? · marketbeat.com ·
- Inhibrx Announces Participation in Upcoming Scientific Conferences · finviz.com
- Inhibrx Reports Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results · inhibrxbiosciences.investorroom.com ·
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