ORIC · Oric Pharmaceuticals
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $11.02
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
28.7% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $11.02, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 41.3% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $11.02, just over the 200-day average of closes, which would show the shares recovering their October losses and leading the S&P 500.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Catalyst
Key figures from the filings · Health Care
Quarter to 30 June 2026, filed 3 August 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- −112
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- 265
- Free-cash-flow yield (%)
- −13.8
All filed numbers
What Oric Pharmaceuticals reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Pre-tax income ($M) | Not reported |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: −140 | −41.5 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 June 2025 | +38.3 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | −112 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 0.6 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | −112 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 265 |
| Debt ($M) | None reported |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) no debt reported | 265 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) | Not reported |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | Not reported |
| Inventory ($M) | Not reported |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 381 |
| Market value ($M) | 815 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) no debt reported | 550 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | Not available |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to book value (×) | 2.1 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | −13.8 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 14.9% of shares outstanding sold short, 10.5 days of average trading to cover, −5.5% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $1.5M |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $3.0M |
The thesis
Oric Pharmaceuticals' enozertinib has a defined late-stage path in first-line lung cancer, but the shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. They closed at $8.50 on 12 November 2026, down 38.7% over three months. Third-quarter cash and at-the-market share issuance, then the Redwood-1 trial start guided to the first half of 2027, decide whether the shares recover.
On 23 October 2026 Oric reported first-line Phase 1b results in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) with atypical mutations of the epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR). The company reported an 84% confirmed systemic objective response rate and a 70% confirmed intracranial response rate. It plans a global Phase 3 trial, Redwood-1, in the first half of 2027.
The shares did not hold the data. The close was $9.23 on 9 November 2026 and $8.50 on 12 November 2026, against a 52-week intraday high of $14.68 on 19 August 2026. H.C. Wainwright maintained Buy with a $27 target and BTIG maintained Buy with a $26 target on 28 October 2026. Both targets are about three times the latest close.
Bullish and bearish views on Oric Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
The bull case on Oric Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ORIC), in brief: a registrational path is stated. The bear case: brain response is below the 2025 mark.
Bull case
- A registrational path is stated. Oric said on 23 October 2026 that Redwood-1 will start in the first half of 2027 after End-of-Phase 1 discussions with the US Food and Drug Administration. The control arm is osimertinib or afatinib.
- Response rates held near the 2025 mark. The 4 December 2025 release reported an 80% response rate in 10 first-line patients. The 23 October 2026 headline is 84% confirmed systemic response.
- Analysts remain positive after the data. H.C. Wainwright ($27) and BTIG ($26) reiterated Buy on 28 October 2026. Stifel kept Buy with an $18 target on 26 October 2026, and Wedbush kept Outperform with a $14 target on 27 October 2026.
- Funding runs past the next trial starts. Oric reported $387.6 million in cash, equivalents and investments at 30 June 2026, with runway guided into the second half of 2028 (second-quarter release, 3 August 2026).
- A second program is in Phase 3. Himalayas-1, the rinzimetostat prostate-cancer trial, was initiated on 14 July 2026, with Bayer supplying darolutamide at no cost.
Bear case
- Brain response is below the 2025 mark. The 4 December 2025 release reported a 100% intracranial response in the early cohort. The 23 October 2026 headline is 70%.
- Differentiation is unproven. Redwood-1 is the controlled test against osimertinib or afatinib, and it does not start until the first half of 2027.
- Price targets are being reset lower. Wedbush lowered its target to $14 on 27 October 2026. The $26 and $27 targets sit far above the market price.
- Equity funding continues. The second-quarter release on 3 August 2026 disclosed $59.9 million raised through the at-the-market program. A lower share price makes further issuance more dilutive.
- Insiders sold into the higher prices. Chief Financial Officer Dominic Piscitelli sold 14,000 shares at $13.53 on 20 October 2026 and 13,400 shares at $13.53 on 28 September 2026. Director Richard Heyman sold 6,700 shares at $12.91 on 1 October 2026. All three sales were under Rule 10b5-1 plans (SEC Form 4 filings).
Price setup
The close was $8.50 on 12 November 2026. That compares with $9.23 on 9 November 2026, $8.49 on 5 November 2026 and $13.87 on 14 August 2026, the three-month reference close. The 52-week intraday high is $14.68, set on 19 August 2026. The 52-week closing low is $7.47, set on 1 April 2026.
The 50-day average of closes is $11.65 and the 200-day average is $11.01, both as of 12 November 2026. The shares trade below both. The 50-day average is above the 200-day average, a gap left by the August to October highs rather than by recent trading.
Catalysts ahead
- ~16 November 2026 (est.): Third-quarter 2026 financial results and quarterly filing. Updates cash against $387.6 million at 30 June 2026 and shows any at-the-market issuance beyond the $59.9 million disclosed in August.
- 30 November 2026: Investor conference appearances announced by the company on 3 November 2026 (November 2026). Management commentary on Redwood-1 design and funding; the end-of-month date is a placeholder for conferences the company placed in November.
- ~30 June 2027 (est.): Redwood-1 Phase 3 trial start, guided to the first half of 2027. Starts the controlled test of enozertinib against osimertinib or afatinib.
What would change the view
A daily close above $11.02, just over the 200-day average of closes, which would show the shares recovering their October losses and leading the S&P 500.
What it trades with
Oric trades with clinical-stage oncology biotech and the SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI), and it is more sensitive to funding conditions than to the broader market. Its price reacts to trial data and financing, since it has no product revenue. Peers in EGFR-mutant lung cancer provide context for the first-line data, with osimertinib as the standard of care Redwood-1 must beat.
The evidence, claim by claim (7)
- Oric reported first-line EGFR-atypical non-small cell lung cancer Phase 1b data with an 84% confirmed systemic objective response rate and a 70% confirmed intracranial response rate, and plans the Phase 3 Redwood-1 trial in the first half of 2027. Oric press release, 23 October 2026 · as of
- Cash, equivalents and investments were $387.6 million at 30 June 2026, with runway into the second half of 2028; $59.9 million was raised through the at-the-market program. Oric second-quarter 2026 results release, 3 August 2026 · as of
- H.C. Wainwright maintained Buy with a $27 target and BTIG reiterated Buy with a $26 target. Benzinga analyst news, 28 October 2026 · as of
- Wedbush maintained Outperform and lowered its price target to $14; Stifel maintained Buy with an $18 target on 26 October 2026. Benzinga analyst news, 27 October 2026 · as of
- Chief Financial Officer Dominic Piscitelli exercised options and sold 14,000 shares at $13.53 on 20 October 2026 under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. SEC Form 4 filed 21 October 2026 · as of
- Director Richard Heyman sold 6,700 shares at $12.91 on 1 October 2026 under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. SEC Form 4 filed 2 October 2026 · as of
- The shares closed at $8.50 on 12 November 2026, down 38.7% over three months from $13.87 on 14 August 2026. Split-adjusted daily closes · as of
Sources
- ORIC® Pharmaceuticals Reports Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results and Operational Updates · investors.oricpharma.com
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