IHRT · iHeartMedia
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $0.85
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
29.7% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $0.8500, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 79.8% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $0.85, over the 11 November 2026 close of $0.70, would show the shares recovering from the guidance cut and leading the S&P 500; so would fourth-quarter Adjusted EBITDA above the $185 million top of the guide.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Communication Services
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 9 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 1,030
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +3.3
- Operating margin (%)
- 7.1
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 58.7
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- −4,885
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 1.2
- Enterprise value to operating income (×)
- 25.4
- Free-cash-flow yield (%)
- 62.0
All filed numbers
What iHeartMedia reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 1,030 | +3.3 | 7.1 |
| first filed | 977 | +4.7 | 3.6 |
| first filed | 884 | +9.6 | 0.2 |
| first filed | 1,127 | +0.8 | 7.6 |
| first filed | 997 | −1.1 | −11.7 |
| first filed | 934 | +0.5 | 3.8 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | Not reported |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: −228 | −8.8 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +2.1 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 142 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 83.6 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 58.7 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 140 |
| Debt ($M) long-term debt | 5,024 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | −4,885 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) | Not reported |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 879 |
| Inventory ($M) | Not reported |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) including non-controlling interests | −2,015 |
| Market value ($M) | 94.7 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 4,979 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 1.2 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | 25.4 |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to book value (×) | Not meaningful |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 62.0 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 3.4% of shares outstanding sold short, 7.8 days of average trading to cover, −1.2% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $0 |
| 12 monthsfrom | $154K | $0 |
The thesis
iHeartMedia's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. On 9 November 2026 the company missed its own third-quarter profit guide and cut its full-year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) outlook to $550–600 million from about $800 million, against $4.680 billion of net debt. The fourth-quarter report, expected in early 2027, settles whether the reduced guide holds.
The third quarter was the test the case turned on, and it failed. Adjusted EBITDA was $170.5 million, below the $180–220 million range set on 10 August 2026 and down from $204.8 million a year earlier, per the company's 9 November 2026 earnings release. Revenue rose 3.3% to $1,029.8 million, but only 0.9% excluding political advertising, so the midterm lift was small.
The free-cash-flow target fell to about $50 million from about $200 million. A 10 November 2026 news report quoted the chief executive warning that major advertisers are delaying spending as economic uncertainty rises. The price already reflects a large part of this: the shares fell from a $1.77 close on 9 November 2026 to $0.62 on 10 November 2026, per adjusted daily closes. The rating is Low because the cut leaves less cash to service debt, and no dated event before the next report is set to reverse it.
Bullish and bearish views on iHeartMedia, Inc.
The bull case on iHeartMedia, Inc. (IHRT), in brief: podcasting keeps growing fast. The bear case: broadcast profit keeps shrinking.
Bull case
- Podcasting keeps growing fast. Third-quarter podcast revenue rose 24.4% to $173.7 million, and Digital Audio revenue rose 13.8% to $388.7 million, per the 9 November 2026 release. From 2027 podcasting becomes its own reporting segment, which will show its profit separately.
- Services profit jumped. Audio & Media Services revenue rose 22.6% to $81.6 million and segment Adjusted EBITDA rose 65.9% to $37.5 million in the third quarter, per the same release.
- GAAP results improved. Third-quarter operating income was $73.0 million against a $116.3 million operating loss a year earlier, and the net loss narrowed to $8.2 million from $65.8 million, per the release.
- The price fell further than the guide. The shares lost most of their value in one session, from $1.77 on 9 November 2026 to $0.62 on 10 November 2026, while the full-year Adjusted EBITDA guide was cut by about $200–250 million. A fourth quarter above the $185 million top of the new guide would arrive at a price set for the low end.
Bear case
- Broadcast profit keeps shrinking. Third-quarter Multiplatform revenue fell 4.9% to $562.4 million and segment Adjusted EBITDA fell 42.9% to $68.0 million, per the 9 November 2026 release. This follows a 39.2% segment profit decline in the second quarter.
- Digital profit stopped growing. Digital Audio segment Adjusted EBITDA fell 2.3% to $127.4 million in the third quarter despite 13.8% revenue growth. In the second quarter it had risen 14.5%.
- Debt rose while cash fell. At 30 September 2026 total debt was $5,024.3 million, cash $139.7 million and company-defined net debt $4,680.1 million, up from $4,651 million at 30 June 2026. Liquidity of $415.8 million included $125.0 million drawn on the asset-based revolving credit facility.
- The fourth-quarter guide carries a charge. The company guided fourth-quarter Adjusted EBITDA to about $135–185 million, including about $100 million of net negative impact from non-cash marketing, with mid-single-digit revenue growth.
- Legal and listing overhang. Law firm Levi & Korsinsky announced an investigation of iHeartMedia on 11 November 2026 following the guidance reduction. The shares closed below $1.00 on 10 November 2026 and 11 November 2026.
Price setup
The shares closed at $0.70 on 11 November 2026, after a 52-week closing low of $0.62 on 10 November 2026, per adjusted daily closes. Before the report they closed at $1.77 on 6 November 2026 and 9 November 2026.
As of 11 November 2026 the 50-day moving average is $2.05 and the 200-day moving average is $3.34. The price sits far below both, and both still slope down. The three-month change is −76.7% from a $3.00 close on 13 August 2026.
The 52-week intraday high is $6.56, set on 5 May 2026; the last close is 89.3% below it. The $1.77 pre-report close is the level that marks the full post-earnings gap. The latest SEC filings are the 9 November 2026 Form 10-Q and results 8-K; no insider Form 4 filings appear since the report.
Catalysts ahead
- ~March 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 earnings report. Shows whether fourth-quarter Adjusted EBITDA lands inside the $135–185 million guide and full-year inside $550–600 million, and gives the first 2027 outlook with podcasting as a separate segment.
What would change the view
A daily close above $0.85, over the 11 November 2026 close of $0.70, would show the shares recovering from the guidance cut and leading the S&P 500; so would fourth-quarter Adjusted EBITDA above the $185 million top of the guide.
What it trades with
iHeartMedia trades on its own debt load and advertising results. With net debt more than $4.6 billion, the equity tends to move with high-yield credit conditions more than with media peers. Radio and audio peers' advertising commentary bears on Multiplatform revenue, and the chief executive's 10 November 2026 remarks on delayed advertiser spending tie the shares to the broader advertising cycle. The company's own fourth-quarter results will carry more weight than any peer read.
The evidence, claim by claim (7)
- Third-quarter 2026 revenue was $1,029.8 million, up 3.3% (up 0.9% excluding political); Adjusted EBITDA was $170.5 million versus $204.8 million a year earlier and a $180–220 million guide. iHeartMedia Q3 2026 earnings release (Form 8-K) · as of
- Full-year 2026 guidance was cut to Adjusted EBITDA of about $550–600 million and free cash flow of about $50 million, from about $800 million and $200 million set in August. iHeartMedia Q3 2026 and Q2 2026 earnings releases (Form 8-K) · as of
- Fourth-quarter 2026 Adjusted EBITDA is guided to about $135–185 million, including about $100 million of net negative impact from non-cash marketing. iHeartMedia Q3 2026 earnings release (Form 8-K) · as of
- Third-quarter Multiplatform revenue fell 4.9% to $562.4 million; segment Adjusted EBITDA fell 42.9% to $68.0 million. iHeartMedia Q3 2026 earnings release (Form 8-K) · as of
- Third-quarter Digital Audio revenue rose 13.8% to $388.7 million, segment Adjusted EBITDA fell 2.3% to $127.4 million, and podcast revenue rose 24.4% to $173.7 million. iHeartMedia Q3 2026 earnings release (Form 8-K) · as of
- Total debt was $5,024.3 million, cash $139.7 million and company-defined net debt $4,680.1 million; liquidity was $415.8 million including $125.0 million of ABL borrowings. iHeartMedia Q3 2026 earnings release and Form 10-Q · as of
- The shares closed at $1.77 on 9 November 2026 and $0.62 on 10 November 2026, the 52-week closing low, after the third-quarter report. Split-adjusted daily closes · as of
Sources
- iHeartMedia, Inc. - Form 8-K - FY2026 · sec.gov ·
- iHeartMedia, Inc. - Form 8-K - FY2026 · sec.gov
- MarketBeat ·