SIDU · Sidus Space
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $1.58
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
40.5% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $1.58, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 62.9% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $1.58, over the 50-day average and the $0.93–$1.15 range of the last six sessions, would show the shares leading the S&P 500. A timely third-quarter 10-Q with revenue above the second quarter would also show it.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Communication Services
Quarter to 30 June 2026, filed 13 August 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 0.6
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- −53.8
- Gross margin (%)
- −108.0
- Operating margin (%)
- −976.2
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- −30.6
- Free-cash-flow yield (%)
- −38.1
All filed numbers
What Sidus Space reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 0.6 | −53.8 | −108.0 | −976.2 |
| first filed | 0.4 | +50.7 | −292.2 | −1522.0 |
| first filed | 0.6 | −29.0 | −296.4 | −1878.4 |
| first filed | 1.3 | −30.5 | −100.1 | −433.8 |
| first filed | 1.3 | +35.9 | −81.5 | −419.5 |
| first filed | 0.2 | −77.3 | −682.8 | −2546.4 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | −4.8 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: −27.4 | −4.8 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 June 2025 | +365.4 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | −19.4 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 11.2 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | −30.6 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | Not reported |
| Debt ($M) | Not available |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | Not available |
| Deferred revenue ($M) +300.3% on a year | 0.4 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | Not reported |
| Inventory ($M) at 30 September 2025, filed 14 November 2025 | 0.2 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 189 |
| Market value ($M) | 80.2 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | Not available |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | Not available |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not available |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to book value (×) | 0.4 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | −38.1 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 23.4% of shares outstanding sold short, 4.6 days of average trading to cover, +9.3% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $0 |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $0 |
The thesis
Sidus Space is more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. On 12 November 2026 its restatement widened to eight reporting periods back to the third quarter of 2024, and the company has set no date for the corrected filings. The third-quarter Form 10-Q, due near 16 November 2026, settles whether reporting stays on schedule.
The shares closed at $0.96 on 12 November 2026, down from $2.60 on 14 August 2026, a 63.2% three-month decline per adjusted daily closes. The price already reflects a company that cannot rely on its own prior financials. It has not yet priced in a failure to file on time, because that has not happened.
The 12 November 2026 Form 8-K/A (an amended current report to the Securities and Exchange Commission, or SEC) says the Audit Committee and management concluded that these statements should no longer be relied on: the third quarter of 2024, full-year 2024, the first three quarters of 2025, full-year 2025, and the first two quarters of 2026. The original 8-K, filed 6 November 2026, covered only the 2024 and 2025 annual reports and the first two 2026 quarterly reports. Management also expects to conclude that one or more material weaknesses in internal control existed.
The 8-K/A gives approximate effects on total stockholders' equity: a decrease of about $20.0 million at 31 December 2024, $10.9 million at 31 December 2025, $13.5 million at 31 March 2026 and $15.0 million at 30 June 2026. Mezzanine equity (shares carried between debt and equity) rises about $1.9 million in all periods.
Bullish and bearish views on Sidus Space, Inc.
The bull case on Sidus Space, Inc. (SIDU), in brief: cash is large against the losses. The bear case: five more periods lose reliability.
Bull case
- Cash is large against the losses. Sidus reported $166.5 million of cash and equivalents and no outstanding term debt at 30 June 2026, per its 14 August 2026 results. The 8-K expects no effect on net cash from financing activities.
- 2025 loss shrinks on restatement. The 8-K/A expects the 2025 net loss to fall by about $5.5 million. The 2024 net loss rises by about $12.5 million, mainly from remeasuring warrants.
- The errors are mostly accounting classification. The 8-K lists warrants that should have been liabilities, a satellite impairment of about $4.0 million that belonged in the first quarter of 2026, expensed prototype costs and early milestone revenue. The company expects no cash effect from financing.
- Third-quarter awards were disclosed. On 14 October 2026 Sidus announced more than $3 million of space and defense manufacturing contracts and purchase orders won in the third quarter, no customers named. Second-quarter revenue was $583,096.
Bear case
- Five more periods lose reliability. The 8-K/A dated 12 November 2026 adds the third quarter of 2024 and the first three quarters of 2025 to the original scope. Further adjustments remain possible because the evaluation is ongoing.
- First-half 2026 losses grow. The 8-K/A expects net loss to rise about $2.6 million in the first quarter of 2026 and $1.5 million in the second quarter, or $4.1 million for the first half.
- No filing date is set. Sidus will file a comprehensive 10-K/A for 2025 and put the restated 2026 quarters in its third-quarter 10-Q, "as soon as reasonably practicable". It gave no timing for either.
- Revenue is thin and uncertain. Second-quarter 2026 revenue of $583,096 was down 54% from $1.261 million a year earlier, and about $0.4 million of it was recognised early per the 8-K.
- Launch proof slipped to 2027. LizzieSat-4 and LizzieSat-5 moved to SpaceX Bandwagon-6, targeted no earlier than April 2027, announced 28 September 2026.
Price setup
The shares closed at $0.96 on 12 November 2026. They had closed at $1.15 on 9 November 2026, $1.14 on 10 November 2026 and $1.10 on 11 November 2026, and at $0.93 on 5 November 2026. The 52-week closing low is $0.63, set on 1 December 2025.
The 50-day average is $1.55 and the 200-day average is $2.55, both adjusted and as of the 12 November 2026 close. The shares sit below both. The 52-week intraday high is $6.79, set on 27 May 2026, and the last close is 85.9% below it.
Nasdaq's minimum bid rule is $1.00. The shares closed under that level on 5 November 2026, 6 November 2026 and 12 November 2026, and above it on the three sessions between. A deficiency notice normally follows 30 consecutive business days below $1.00, so no notice is implied yet.
Catalysts ahead
- ~16 November 2026 (est.): Third-quarter 2026 Form 10-Q due date, assuming the 45-day deadline of 14 November 2026 rolls to the next business day; the company has not announced a results date. A timely filing with restated first-half figures would show the restatement is not slowing reporting; a late-filing notice would confirm the lag risk.
- ~23 November 2026 (est.): Possible end of the five-day extension if Sidus files a late-filing notice for the third-quarter 10-Q. A filing after the extension, or a Nasdaq periodic-filing deficiency notice, would deepen the reporting problem.
What would change the view
A daily close above $1.58, over the 50-day average and the $0.93–$1.15 range of the last six sessions, would show the shares leading the S&P 500. A timely third-quarter 10-Q with revenue above the second quarter would also show it.
What it trades with
Sidus trades with small-cap space and defense hardware names, but its drivers are company-specific: the restatement, the delayed LizzieSat launch and a cash balance that is large against small revenue. Sector moves explain less than the filing calendar. SEC Form 4 filings list no insider transactions in the last 30 days.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Non-reliance now covers the third quarter of 2024, full-year 2024, the first three quarters of 2025, full-year 2025 and the first two quarters of 2026; management expects to conclude material weaknesses existed. Sidus Space Form 8-K/A, Amendment No. 1, dated 12 November 2026 · as of
- Expected net loss changes: 2024 up about $12.5 million, 2025 down about $5.5 million, first quarter of 2026 up about $2.6 million, second quarter of 2026 up about $1.5 million, first half of 2026 up about $4.1 million. Sidus Space Form 8-K/A, Amendment No. 1 · as of
- Expected decrease in total stockholders' equity: about $20.0 million at 31 December 2024, $10.9 million at 31 December 2025, $13.5 million at 31 March 2026 and $15.0 million at 30 June 2026. Sidus Space Form 8-K/A, Amendment No. 1 · as of
- Sidus will file a comprehensive 2025 Form 10-K/A and restate the first two 2026 quarters in its third-quarter 2026 Form 10-Q, with no timing set. Sidus Space Form 8-K/A, Amendment No. 1 · as of
- Second-quarter 2026 revenue was $583,096, down 54% from $1.261 million a year earlier; cash and equivalents were $166.5 million with no outstanding term debt at 30 June 2026. Sidus Space second-quarter 2026 results release · as of
- Sidus announced more than $3 million of space and defense manufacturing contracts and purchase orders won in the third quarter of 2026, with no customers named. Sidus Space press release · as of
- LizzieSat-4 and LizzieSat-5 moved to SpaceX Bandwagon-6, targeted no earlier than April 2027. Sidus Space announcement, 28 September 2026 · as of
- The shares closed at $0.96 on 12 November 2026; the 3-month change is −63.2%, the 50-day average is $1.55 and the 200-day average is $2.55. Adjusted daily closes · as of
Sources
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