Dormant
SITM · SiTime Corporation
Last analysed ·
Against its published line
Nothing is through its line on this close.
How to read this
The red mark is the published kill line — the price that would prove the pick wrong. The dot is where the name closed on the last session; a dot LEFT of the mark has closed through its line.
Distance is drawn on a square-root scale, so close calls get the room. Past 8% a row stops competing and reads well clear, with a hollow dot to say the figure is off the drawn scale. Rows run tightest first.
Resolved Graded and closed 2026-08-07 at low conviction — the published kill line did not fire. Coverage continued after the close; the read below is dated 2026-09-20 and is not part of the scored record.
Current thesis
MEMS-timing picks-and-shovels story is fundamentally intact — Q1 datacenter revenue +158% YoY to 67% of sales, Renesas timing deal closed July 1 — but the momentum leg has broken: ~$550 on July 18 is ~39% off the May 11 all-time-high close of $901.48, through the $560 shelf, with 31 insider sales and zero buys in six months. Aug 5 print is the binary.
Kill line
A weekly close below $480 round-trips the entire post-Q1 datacenter re-rate back to the pre-print base and confirms the AI-timing multiple is unwinding rather than consolidating; secondary: Q2 revenue on Aug 5 below the $140M guide floor, a sequential CED/datacenter decline, or FY growth guidance cut from the ≥80% bar.
Pick status
Played out resolved published kill line did not fire How this is scored →Latest analysis and events for SITM —
As of 20 September 2026, the latest FrontierPicks analysis for SiTime Corporation (SITM): MEMS-timing picks-and-shovels story is fundamentally intact — Q1 datacenter revenue +158% YoY to 67% of sales, Renesas timing deal closed July 1 — but the momentum leg has broken: ~$550 on July 18 is ~39% off the May 11 all-time-high close of $901.48, through the $560 shelf, with 31 insider sales and zero buys in six months. Aug 5 print is the binary.
Kill line: A weekly close below $480 round-trips the entire post-Q1 datacenter re-rate back to the pre-print base and confirms the AI-timing multiple is unwinding rather than consolidating; secondary: Q2 revenue on Aug 5 below the $140M guide floor, a sequential CED/datacenter decline, or FY growth guidance cut from the ≥80% bar.
Current Thesis
SiTime Corporation’s AI-datacenter timing thesis depends on meeting its Q3 revenue guidance while sustaining growth outside the acquired Renesas business; the Q3 report tests that case, and a weekly close below $480 ends the published price thesis. Management’s 2026-08-05 guidance called for Q3 revenue of $285–295 million, including approximately $85 million from the acquisition.
The September refresh changes the momentum and supply readings. The supplied adjusted daily series records a 2026-09-18 close of $614.27 and a 14-session relative strength index (RSI) of 59.4, compared with $612.09 and 29.9 on 2026-09-04. September insider sales also supersede the previously documented pause: StockTitan’s filing summaries report transactions on 2026-09-09 and 2026-09-11. Form 4 summaries.
As an inference about attention, the narrative is saturated — leveraged single-stock exchange-traded funds launched on 2026-08-13, and Morgan Stanley initiated coverage on 2026-09-17, according to Benzinga. The new coverage extends an established story; it does not measure additional investment demand. The improved RSI prevents carrying forward the September note’s oversold characterization, but the available observations are too few to establish expanding participation. Analyst actions.
Bullish and bearish views on SiTime Corporation
The model's bull view on SiTime Corporation (SITM), in brief: Operating growth preceded the acquisition. The bear view: September selling ends the pause. StockTitan’s Form 4 summaries report CEO Rajesh Vashist selling 12,000 shares on 2026-09-09 at a weighted average transaction price of $603.47, and chief legal officer Vincent Pangrazio selling 3,000 shares on 2026-09-11 at $625. These are… Both cases follow in full.
Bull Case
- Operating growth preceded the acquisition. The 2026-08-05 results reported Q2 revenue of $157.432 million, up 127% year over year. Communications, enterprise and datacenter (CED) revenue reached $101.2 million, up 181% year over year and 34% sequentially, according to the accompanying earnings call. This establishes operating evidence before the Renesas consolidation.
- Guidance provides a measurable test. On the 2026-08-05 call, management guided Q3 revenue to $285–295 million and adjusted earnings per share to $3.50–$3.65. The constructive case requires revenue to meet that range without a sequential decline in comparable CED revenue; a miss would contradict it.
- Research coverage continues to broaden. Benzinga records Morgan Stanley analyst Joseph Moore initiating coverage on 2026-09-17 with an Overweight rating and a $730 price target. That is a named analyst’s valuation judgment, not a company forecast or evidence of subsequent inflows. Benzinga analyst history.
Bear Case
- September selling ends the pause. StockTitan’s Form 4 summaries report CEO Rajesh Vashist selling 12,000 shares on 2026-09-09 at a weighted average transaction price of $603.47, and chief legal officer Vincent Pangrazio selling 3,000 shares on 2026-09-11 at $625. These are observable third-party transactions; they do not establish either executive’s operating outlook. Dated filing summaries.
- Acquisition revenue complicates the comparison. Approximately $85 million of the Q3 revenue guidance issued on 2026-08-05 comes from the acquired timing business. Meeting consolidated guidance alone would therefore leave the organic-growth question unresolved without a comparable business breakdown.
- Price recovery remains incomplete. The supplied 2026-09-18 adjusted series places the shares 31.9% below their $901.48 52-week high, with a three-month price change of -18.4%. The RSI improvement does not erase that measured decline.
Setup & Price Structure
The market’s 2026-09-18 reference close is $614.27. RSI was 59.4 that day, so the earlier 2026-09-04 reading of 29.9 no longer describes current momentum. A moving-average value, its slope, trading volume and current short interest are missing from the supplied price evidence; distance above a rising average and squeeze intensity cannot be established.
The $480 weekly-close boundary remains the research invalidation published in the 2026-09-06 dossier. It is a retained thesis threshold, not newly verified chart support. The evidence supports modest confidence in the operating case: the 2026-08-05 report documented CED growth, while the subsequent acquisition makes the next comparison harder to interpret.
Catalyst Calendar (next 30 days)
- 2026-09-20 through 2026-10-20: SiTime’s investor calendar, checked on 2026-09-20, lists no upcoming events. Its 2026-09-09 Goldman Sachs conference appearance is listed under past events and is no longer a prospective catalyst. This establishes the absence of a scheduled event on that calendar, not the absence of possible announcements. Company event calendar.
- ~2026-11-03, estimated: ChartMill lists this date for Q3 2026 earnings; SiTime’s calendar does not confirm it. This later report is included because it tests the 2026-08-05 revenue guidance of $285–295 million and the comparable CED trajectory against Q2 revenue of $101.2 million. Third-party earnings estimate.
What Would Change Our Mind
Failure of the retained price boundary would end the consolidation thesis: a weekly close below $480 triggers invalidation under the research condition published on 2026-09-06. Independently, Q3 revenue below the $285 million floor guided on 2026-08-05, or comparable CED revenue below Q2’s $101.2 million, would break the operating case.
The positive case would be demonstrated by Q3 revenue within or above the guided $285–295 million range and comparable CED revenue above $101.2 million before the price condition fires. If acquisition disclosures do not permit that comparison, consolidated revenue alone would leave the organic component unproven.
Correlation Notes
This is a single-name setup; no group-momentum confirmation is established. The company’s 2026-08-05 disclosure of $101.2 million in Q2 CED revenue supports an economic connection to datacenter spending, but it does not measure stock-price correlation.
The supplied market headlines describe a Nasdaq 100 decline on 2026-09-14 and a rally on 2026-09-17. Those observations, without matched SiTime returns or a longer sample, are too few to support a correlation claim. The datacenter theme describes business exposure here, not a demonstrated trading relationship.
Notes
- Q3 guide $285-295M is the first period consolidating the acquired Renesas timing (TPD) book, ~$85M of the range; the organic vs acquired split needs unpicking each quarter.
- Capital structure carries $1.2B of 0% converts due 2031 (prospectus supplement dated 2026-05-19) plus $900M committed bank debt, with ~3.56M shares issued at the 2026-07-01 close.
- Published target dispersion is wide: vendor aggregates surveyed 2026-09-06 spanned $481.67 (16 analysts) to $862.78 (9 analysts). Check the date and the analyst count on any target cited.
- Insider sales run largely through 10b5-1 plans and cluster after vest dates; transaction frequency matters as much as dollar totals when reading the Form 4 flow.
- Two 2x leveraged single-stock ETFs referencing SiTime began trading 2026-08-13; daily rebalancing adds mechanical closing flow on large-range days.
Related · shared themes
HPE
Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company
Hewlett Packard Enterprise's AI and networking earnings transition supports a repricing thesis that requires intact growth guidance and the first weekly close above $54.44 after the 2026-09-30 Investor Day. A weekly close below $50 invalidates the price thesis.
NTAP
NetApp, Inc.
NetApp's AI storage recovery requires delivery of September guidance before a weekly close below $164 breaks the thesis. Fiscal-Q2 revenue of at least $2.025 billion and non-GAAP gross margin of at least 67.0%, with the annual revenue outlook issued on 2026-09-02 maintained, would confirm the case.
XMTR
Xometry, Inc.
Xometry's AI manufacturing thesis requires enterprise adoption to deliver its August 4 guidance before a weekly close below $85. Third-quarter revenue of at least $234 million and adjusted EBITDA of at least $16 million, with the 33–34% full-year revenue-growth outlook maintained, would confirm the case.
DELL
Dell Technologies Inc.
Dell Technologies’ AI-server thesis requires roughly $19 billion of next-quarter revenue and infrastructure operating margin of at least 15.0%. The next quarterly results settle that case; September 21, 2026 index inclusion does not resolve the delivery or margin test.