SKM · SK Telecom
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $40.03
Note written ·
How this view changed
- · Rating cut from Medium to Low. Results, 4 November 2026: Third-quarter AI data-center sales rose 6.2% year over year, below the 50% growth rate the prior note set as the break point, after 92.5% in the second quarter.
Price against the kill line
13.6% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $40.03, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 12.9% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $40.03, the highest close of the last 63 sessions (21 August 2026), which would show the shares leading the S&P 500. Fourth-quarter AI data-center revenue above the second-quarter KRW 136.2 billion would also show the shares leading.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Catalyst
Key figures from the filings · Communication Services
Filed figures are not available: no quarterly report in US GAAP with the SEC (a foreign filer reports on Form 20-F or 40-F).
All filed numbers
What SK Telecom reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): the share of shares outstanding is not available, 1.1 days of average trading to cover, +4.2% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $0 |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $0 |
This note mentions Anthropic, the company that makes Claude, the AI model that wrote it. The same method and sources apply as on every note. The conflict of interest, stated.
The thesis
SK Telecom's American depositary receipts (ADRs) are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. AI data-center sales grew only 6.2% from a year earlier in the third quarter (Korea Times, 4 November 2026), so the case now rests on a roughly 0.3% Anthropic stake that gets a market price when trading is expected to start on 19 November 2026.
The ADR closed at $34.12 on 12 November 2026, up from $29.42 on 5 November 2026. The shares have recovered into the Anthropic listing, and the 3-month price change is still −10.8%. CNBC reported on 10 November 2026 that Anthropic's order book is already covered across the $70 to $78 range, so a pricing inside the range is largely anticipated. Investors had earlier expected a valuation near $2 trillion; the top of the range implies up to $1.405 trillion (CNBC, 10 November 2026).
Bullish and bearish views on SK Telecom Co., Ltd.
The bull case on SK Telecom Co., Ltd. (SKM), in brief: profit has recovered strongly. The bear case: data-center growth slowed sharply.
Bull case
- Profit has recovered strongly. Third-quarter operating income was KRW 552.3 billion and net income was KRW 411.8 billion, against a KRW 166.7 billion net loss a year earlier (SK Telecom release and Korea Times, 4 November 2026). Costs from the year-ago USIM data breach drove much of the comparison.
- Revenue growth has returned. Consolidated revenue was KRW 4.4973 trillion, up 3.2% from the second quarter and 13.1% from a year earlier (SK Telecom release, 4 November 2026). Other AI-related business sales rose 27.3% from a year earlier (Korea Times, 4 November 2026).
- The dividend held. The quarterly dividend stayed at KRW 830 per share, unchanged from the first and second quarters (SK Telecom release, 4 November 2026).
- The Anthropic listing is dated and demand is reported. Anthropic offers 825 million Class A shares at $70 to $78, with pricing planned for 18 November 2026 and Nasdaq trading as "ANT" from 19 November 2026. CNBC reports institutional demand is stronger than SpaceX's at the same stage, and that timing could change.
- The stake has a large reported book value. SK Telecom invested $100 million in August 2023 at a $5 billion Anthropic valuation, and carried its holding at KRW 3.51 trillion ($2.65 billion) at the end of June (tech-insider.org summary of company disclosures, November 2026).
- Sovereign AI work continues. Company news on 9 November 2026 reports SK Telecom, Nvidia and Rebellions collaborating on sovereign AI infrastructure, with Nvidia graphics processors for the prefill step and Rebellions chips for decode.
Bear case
- Data-center growth slowed sharply. AI data-center sales rose 6.2% from a year earlier in the third quarter (Korea Times, 4 November 2026), against 92.5% growth to KRW 136.2 billion in the second quarter (SK Telecom release, 5 August 2026). The secondary-analysis site FourWeekMBA puts the third-quarter figure at KRW 126.1 billion, down 7.4% from the second quarter.
- The Anthropic valuation is below earlier talk. The range values Anthropic at up to $1.405 trillion (CNBC, 10 November 2026), against $1.8 trillion to $2 trillion in a Bloomberg-sourced report of 2 October 2026. Hana Securities' $2.9 billion estimate for the stake on 2 October 2026 was struck against the higher range.
- The stake does not reach earnings soon. SK Telecom's chief executive said on 2 October 2026 there are no plans to sell the stake immediately. A gain on an unsold stake would appear in other comprehensive income, not net income.
- Operating income slipped from the second quarter. KRW 552.3 billion in the third quarter compares with KRW 566.0 billion in the second (company results, 4 November 2026 and 5 August 2026).
- Partners take 49% of SK Horizon. KKR and IMM would own 29% and 20% of SK Horizon under the KRW 3.08 trillion equity investment announced on 27 August 2026. The SK Broadband split behind it needs a shareholder vote on 15 January 2027.
- Other capital calls remain. A September 2026 Form 6-K discloses a $480 million commitment to newly issued shares of SK hynix NAND Product Solutions Corp. through 25 June 2030.
Price setup
The ADR closed at $34.12 on 12 November 2026. That compares with $29.42 on 5 November 2026, $31.23 on 6 November 2026, $32.31 on 9 November 2026, $33.11 on 10 November 2026 and $34.35 on 11 November 2026 (quoted daily closes).
The 50-day average of the adjusted closes is $34.14 and the 200-day average is $34.00, both as of 12 November 2026. The shares sit on both averages after a week of gains. The 3-month price change is −10.8%, measured from the adjusted close of $38.26 on 14 August 2026.
The 52-week high is $47.18, reached intraday on 2 June 2026, and the last close is 27.7% below it. The 52-week closing low is $19.68 on 18 December 2025. A dividend went ex in the last year, so adjusted closes before it sit slightly below quoted ones.
The ADR trades in dollars, so moves in the won against the dollar add to company results. Foreign issuers file no SEC Form 4 insider reports, and no share issuance is reported. Company news on 11 November 2026 lists the shares among communication-services names with unusual options activity.
Catalysts ahead
- ~18 November 2026 (est.): Anthropic IPO pricing, planned within a $70 to $78 range. The final price sets the value of SK Telecom's roughly 0.3% Anthropic stake; it can land outside the range and the timing could change.
- ~19 November 2026 (est.): Anthropic expected first trading day on Nasdaq (ANT). Gives SK Telecom's stake a market price, the main driver left in the case after data-center growth slowed.
- 15 January 2027: Extraordinary general meeting on the SK Broadband split behind SK Horizon. Shareholder approval is a condition for the KKR and IMM funding to proceed.
What would change the view
A daily close above $40.03, the highest close of the last 63 sessions (21 August 2026), which would show the shares leading the S&P 500. Fourth-quarter AI data-center revenue above the second-quarter KRW 136.2 billion would also show the shares leading.
What it trades with
The Seoul line 017670 is the primary listing, and the ADR follows it plus the USD/KRW rate. SK Square holds roughly 20% of SK hynix, so group-level sentiment tracks the memory cycle. The Anthropic stake ties the shares to the AI-listing calendar and to Nvidia-linked data-center names. The mobile business moves with Korean telecom peers.
The evidence, claim by claim (7)
- Third-quarter 2026 consolidated revenue KRW 4.4973 trillion, up 3.2% from the previous quarter and 13.1% from a year earlier; operating income KRW 552.3 billion; net income KRW 411.8 billion. SK Telecom third-quarter 2026 results release (news.sktelecom.com/en/3336) · as of
- AI data-center sales rose 6.2% from a year earlier in the third quarter; other AI-related business sales rose 27.3%. Korea Times, 4 November 2026 · as of
- Quarterly dividend of KRW 830 per share, unchanged from the first and second quarters of 2026. SK Telecom third-quarter 2026 results release · as of
- Second-quarter 2026 AI data-center revenue KRW 136.2 billion, up 92.5% from a year earlier; operating income KRW 566.0 billion. SK Telecom second-quarter 2026 results release; Form 6-K · as of
- Anthropic set an IPO range of $70 to $78 for 825 million Class A shares, a fully diluted value of up to $1.405 trillion at the top; pricing planned 18 November 2026 and Nasdaq trading 19 November 2026; the order book is covered across the range. CNBC, 10 November 2026 · as of
- KRW 3.08 trillion equity investment from KKR and IMM into SK Horizon; SK Telecom keeps 51%, KKR 29%, IMM 20%. SK Telecom announcement (news.sktelecom.com/en/3290) · as of
- SK Telecom's Anthropic holding carried at KRW 3.51 trillion ($2.65 billion) at the end of June, from a $100 million investment in August 2023. tech-insider.org summary of company disclosures · as of
Sources
- Anthropic sets IPO price range of $70 to $78, looks to start trading Nov. 19, sources say · cnbc.com ·
- SK Telecom ·
- koreatimes.co.kr ·
- SK Telecom Discloses a 7% Quarterly Drop in AI DC Revenue · fourweekmba.com
- SK Telecom's Anthropic stake could be worth W7.26tr; Naver and LG CNS also stand to benefit from blockbuster listing · koreaherald.com
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