SKWD · Skyward Specialty Insurance Group
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $67.44
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
6.6% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $67.44, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are up 9.5% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $67.44, which is over the 52-week intraday high of $65.69 set on 6 August 2026 and would show the shares leading the market. Fourth-quarter 2026 results with a 2027 combined ratio outlook at or below 89.9% and managed-premium growth above 12.5% would also show it.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Financials
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 6 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Net income, latest quarter ($M)
- 49.8
- Net income, four quarters ($M)
- 192
- Shareholders' equity ($M)
- 1,276
- Price to earnings (×)
- 14.6
- Price to book value (×)
- 2.2
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)total revenues, including investment gains and losses
- 455
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +19.0
- Market value ($M)
- 2,799
Skyward Specialty Insurance Group is an insurer: net cash, enterprise value and free cash flow are not shown, because a bank's or insurer's cash and investments back its deposits and policies.
All filed numbers
What Skyward Specialty Insurance Group reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 455 | +19.0 | 14.0 |
| first filed | 490 | +53.0 | 13.0 |
| first filed | 476 | +44.8 | 13.0 |
| first filed | 386 | +26.7 | 14.2 |
| first filed | 383 | +27.1 | 15.8 |
| first filed | 320 | +14.3 | 15.6 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 63.6 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 192 | 49.8 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +9.4 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 441 |
| Capital spending ($M) four quarters to 31 December 2025, filed 6 November 2026 | 5.5 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | Not meaningful |
Not meaningful: a bank's or insurer's operating cash flow moves with its deposits, loans and policy reserves, so it is not cash free for its owners.
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 188 |
| Debt ($M) notes | 417 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | Not meaningful |
| Deferred revenue ($M) | Not reported |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 1,091 |
| Inventory ($M) | Not reported |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 1,276 |
Not meaningful: a bank's or insurer's cash and investments back its deposits and policies.
| Market value ($M) | 2,799 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | Not meaningful |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | Not meaningful |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to earnings (×) | 14.6 |
| Price to book value (×) | 2.2 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | Not meaningful |
Not meaningful: a bank's or insurer's cash and investments back its deposits and policies.
Not meaningful: a bank's or insurer's operating cash flow moves with its deposits, loans and policy reserves, so it is not cash free for its owners.
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 4.2% of shares outstanding sold short, 5.0 days of average trading to cover, −5.1% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $0 |
| 12 monthsfrom | $1.5M | $969K |
The thesis
Skyward Specialty Insurance Group is more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. Underwriting profit held in the third quarter, but premium growth is slowing and excess-and-surplus property prices are falling. The 2027 guidance due with fourth-quarter results, expected around 24 February 2027, decides whether earnings hold through a softer pricing cycle.
Skyward reported diluted operating earnings of $1.28 per share on 5 November 2026, up 22% from a year earlier, with a consolidated combined ratio of 89.9% (MarketBeat, The Insurer). A combined ratio under 100% means premiums exceeded claims and expenses. The shares closed at $62.67 on 12 November 2026, 4.6% below the 52-week intraday high of $65.69 set on 6 August 2026.
The price already reflects the profitability: the shares sit near their high even though managed-premium growth slowed to 12.5% in the third quarter from 17.5% in the second (The Insurer; company release, 4 August 2026).
Bullish and bearish views on Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc.
The bull case on Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. (SKWD), in brief: underwriting stayed profitable. The bear case: growth slowed. Managed-premium growth was 12.5% in the third quarter (The Insurer), against 17.5% in the second. Gross written premiums rose 9% to $803 million, with Apollo, the Lloyd's of London unit, up 3% to $135 million. Revenue missed estimates. Sales of $455.341 million…
Bull case
- Underwriting stayed profitable. The third-quarter combined ratio was 89.9%, or 88.1% excluding catastrophe losses, which took 1.5 points (MarketBeat, 6 November 2026). Operating return on equity exceeded 20% annualized over nine months.
- Fee income is growing faster than premiums. Fee-generating gross written premiums rose more than 18% to $517 million, with partner syndicates up 70%. Underwriting fee income was $11 million in the quarter and about $34 million year to date (MarketBeat, 6 November 2026).
- Book value is compounding. Book value per share was $28.74 on 5 November 2026, up more than 15% from December 2025, per management on the call.
- Earnings beat estimates. Adjusted EPS of $1.28 compared with a $1.22 estimate (Benzinga, 5 November 2026). Management said full-year premium growth should land near the upper end of the original $2.65 billion to $2.8 billion range.
- Analysts remain constructive. Barclays maintained Overweight and raised its target to $71 on 6 November 2026 (Benzinga).
Bear case
- Growth slowed. Managed-premium growth was 12.5% in the third quarter (The Insurer), against 17.5% in the second. Gross written premiums rose 9% to $803 million, with Apollo, the Lloyd's of London unit, up 3% to $135 million.
- Revenue missed estimates. Sales of $455.341 million fell short of the $503.035 million estimate (Benzinga, 5 November 2026). The 10-Q filed 6 November 2026 shows quarterly revenue of $455.34 million against $382.53 million a year earlier (SEC XBRL).
- Property pricing is falling. In U.S. excess-and-surplus property, management said submissions rose 60%, the hit ratio fell by a third and average premiums fell 20% (6 November 2026 call).
- Margin edged down. The third-quarter combined ratio of 89.9% compares with 89.5% in the second quarter. The segment loss ratio rose on a mix shift toward accident and health and global agriculture, per Skyward's release.
- No capital return yet. Management leans toward debt repayment over share repurchases, with a decision after year-end, per the call.
Price setup
The shares closed at $62.67 on 12 November 2026. That is above the 50-day average of $58.38 and the 200-day average of $52.33, and the three-month price change is 4.8%. The 52-week closing low is $41.26, set on 20 March 2026.
The shares closed at $63.86 on 5 November 2026, the day of the report, fell to $60.35 on 6 November 2026 and $59.80 on 9 November 2026, then recovered to $63.30 on 10 November 2026. They have since eased to $63.03 and $62.67. The 52-week intraday high of $65.69 is the level the shares have not reached since 6 August 2026.
No Form 4 insider transactions are listed since the report.
Catalysts ahead
- ~24 February 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 results with 2027 guidance. Management said it will give 2027 guidance then. It decides whether the combined ratio and premium growth hold as property rates fall.
What would change the view
A daily close above $67.44, which is over the 52-week intraday high of $65.69 set on 6 August 2026 and would show the shares leading the market. Fourth-quarter 2026 results with a 2027 combined ratio outlook at or below 89.9% and managed-premium growth above 12.5% would also show it.
What it trades with
Skyward trades with specialty and excess-and-surplus insurers, where the pricing cycle sets sentiment. Apollo's Lloyd's exposure ties part of its results to marine, energy and international property catastrophe losses, which do not follow US storm seasons. Skyward's fee income depends on partner syndicates, so it follows Lloyd's capacity trends more than a typical US specialty insurer.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Third-quarter 2026 diluted operating earnings were $1.28 per share ($58 million), up 22% from a year earlier; consolidated combined ratio was 89.9% (88.1% excluding catastrophe losses). Skyward third-quarter 2026 results; The Insurer; MarketBeat call highlights · as of
- Third-quarter gross written premiums rose 9% to $803 million; insurance operations rose 10% to $668 million and Apollo rose 3% to $135 million. Managed-premium growth was 12.5%, against 17.5% in the second quarter. The Insurer; Skyward second-quarter 2026 release · as of
- Fee-generating gross written premiums rose more than 18% to $517 million; underwriting fee income was $11 million in the quarter and about $34 million year to date. MarketBeat third-quarter 2026 call highlights · as of
- Adjusted EPS of $1.28 beat the $1.22 estimate; sales of $455.341 million missed the $503.035 million estimate. Benzinga earnings summary · as of
- In U.S. excess-and-surplus property, submissions rose 60%, the hit ratio fell by a third and average premiums fell 20%, per management. MarketBeat third-quarter 2026 call highlights · as of
- Book value per share was $28.74, up more than 15% from December 2025; annualized operating return on equity exceeded 20% over nine months. MarketBeat third-quarter 2026 call highlights · as of
- Quarterly revenue for the period ended 30 September 2026 was $455.34 million against $382.53 million in the same quarter a year earlier. Form 10-Q filed 6 November 2026 (SEC XBRL) · as of
- Barclays maintained Overweight and raised its price target to $71. Benzinga · as of
Sources
- Skyward Specialty Insurance Group Q3 Earnings Call Highlights · marketbeat.com ·
- Skyward Group grows managed premium 12.5% in Q3 with 89.9% combined ratio · theinsurer.com ·
Related · shared themes
SLDE
Slide Insurance Holdings
Slide Insurance is earning well ahead of plan on Florida homeowners policies and paying a $1.50 special dividend after raising 2026 net…
AMP
Ameriprise Financial
Ameriprise Financial is modestly more likely to beat the S&P 500 over three months: third-quarter earnings rose 21.7% and Huntington's…
CME
CME Group
CME Group is more likely to beat the S&P 500 over three months: record October volume of 30 million contracts a day followed record…
FBIZ
First Business Financial Services
First Business Financial Services is modestly more likely to beat the S&P 500 over three months on a 3.80% third-quarter margin and record…