ERAS · Erasca
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $22.47
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
30.3% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $22.47, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 14.3% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $22.47, the highest close of the past year (23 April 2026), which would show the shares leading the S&P 500. A combined pancreatic response rate above 57% in the larger 20 November 2026 dataset would also show them leading.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Catalyst
The business · as of
Erasca is a clinical-stage cancer drug developer focused on RAS-pathway tumors, led by ERAS-0015 and ERAS-4001. It reports no revenue and funds trials from share offerings; net loss was $51 million in the quarter to 30 September 2026.
What is changing, and what follows · as of
- What is changing now
- On 12 November 2026 Erasca reported a third-quarter net loss of $51.3 million and said an oral presentation of expanded ERAS-0015 data comes on 20 November 2026.
- What follows for the company
- Research and development expense rose to $47.2 million from $22.5 million a year earlier; cash of $947.8 million at 30 September 2026 funds the guided milestones.
- What follows for its customers, suppliers and competitors
- Revolution Medicines (RVMD) is both the direct RAS-inhibitor competitor and the party alleging patent infringement; Tango Therapeutics (TNGX) is a combination-trial partner.
What the price assumes · as of
At the 13 November 2026 close (filed inputs to 12 November 2026) the shares trade at P/B 6.0 for an enterprise value of $4,548 million with no debt reported; free-cash-flow yield is −2.0%, and P/E and EV/sales are not meaningful or not available. That holds only if ERAS-0015 data support the pivotal trials guided for 2027.
Key figures from the filings · Health Care
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 12 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- −109
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- 948
- Free-cash-flow yield (%)
- −2.0
All filed numbers
What Erasca reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Pre-tax income ($M) | Not reported |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: −308 | −51.3 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +21.3 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | −109 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 0.1 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | −109 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 948 |
| Debt ($M) | None reported |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) no debt reported | 948 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) | Not reported |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | Not reported |
| Inventory ($M) | Not reported |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 917 |
| Market value ($M) | 5,496 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) no debt reported | 4,548 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | Not available |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to book value (×) | 6.0 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | −2.0 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 10.5% of shares outstanding sold short, 6.3 days of average trading to cover, +4.6% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $0 |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $2.3M |
Linked companies · as of
- Competitors:
- RVMD
The thesis
Erasca's pan-RAS drug ERAS-0015 faces a binary test in the oral presentation of 20 November 2026, which adds pancreatic cancer patients and follow-up to the early responses. With the Revolution Medicines patent dispute open and the shares below the $17.50 July offering price, they are more likely to lag the S&P 500 than lead it over three months.
The shares closed at $15.66 on 13 November 2026, after $16.80 on 11 November 2026 and $15.78 on 12 November 2026. The three-month price change is −14.3%. The last close is 35.5% below the 52-week intraday high of $24.28 (23 April 2026).
Erasca reported third-quarter results on 12 November 2026: a net loss of $51.3 million, or $0.15 per share, against $30.6 million, or $0.11, a year earlier. Investing.com's 10 November 2026 preview had expected a loss of $0.13 per share. Research and development expense was $47.2 million, up from $22.5 million a year earlier (company release, 12 November 2026). The release contained no update on the patent dispute.
Bullish and bearish views on Erasca, Inc.
The bull case on Erasca, Inc. (ERAS), in brief: a larger dataset has a date. The bear case: the patent dispute is open.
Bull case
- A larger dataset has a date. Erasca will give an oral plenary presentation of updated ERAS-0015 monotherapy data from the AURORAS-1 trial, with more patients and longer follow-up, at the EORTC-NCI-AACR Symposium in Barcelona on 20 November 2026 (company release, 12 November 2026).
- Early pancreatic response rate was high. Erasca's 11 August 2026 release reported a 57% response rate at the 32 mg daily dose, combining confirmed and unconfirmed responses at the 25 May 2026 data cutoff.
- Cash is large. Cash, equivalents and marketable securities were $947.8 million at 30 September 2026, against $341.8 million at 31 December 2025, after a July offering of about $632.5 million gross. The balance sheet reports no debt.
- A path to pivotal trials is guided. Erasca guided to a Phase 3 trial in first-line pancreatic cancer starting in 2027, and a potentially registration-enabling lung cancer trial starting in the first half of 2027 (company release, 12 November 2026).
- Regulatory access improved. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration granted ERAS-0015 Fast Track designation for metastatic pancreatic adenocarcinoma in August 2026.
- A combination route opened. Erasca and Tango Therapeutics announced on 4 November 2026 that enrollment opened in a Phase 1/2 trial of Tango's vopimetostat plus ERAS-0015 in pancreatic and lung cancer.
Bear case
- The patent dispute is open. Erasca disclosed on 27 April 2026 a letter from Revolution Medicines' counsel alleging that ERAS-0015 infringes U.S. Patent No. 12,409,225 and relates to trade secret misappropriation. Erasca says the claims lack merit. The 12 November 2026 release lists the allegations as a risk factor and reports no resolution.
- The shares fell sharply once already. Pomerantz LLP reported a 48.3% drop to $9.90 on 28 April 2026 after the patent letter and a disclosed patient death in the Phase 1 trial.
- Securities litigation continues. Cheng v. Erasca (S.D. Cal., No. 3:26-cv-03481) covers purchases between 14 January 2026 and 26 April 2026 and alleges omitted patent and trade secret risk.
- The response sample is small. The 57% rate combined confirmed and unconfirmed responses from an early-phase cohort. The 20 November 2026 update is the first test of whether responses hold as patients are added.
- Spending is rising and dilution is large. Net loss was $308 million over the four quarters to 30 September 2026, and free cash flow was −$109 million (10-Q filed 12 November 2026). The diluted share count rose 21.3% from a year earlier.
- The quarter missed the preview. The reported loss of $0.15 per share compared with the $0.13 expected in Investing.com's 10 November 2026 preview, and the shares closed at $15.78 on 12 November 2026, down from $16.80 the session before.
Price setup
ERAS closed at $15.66 on 13 November 2026. Earlier closes were $14.41 on 6 November 2026, $15.61 on 9 November 2026, $15.48 on 10 November 2026, $16.80 on 11 November 2026 and $15.78 on 12 November 2026. The last close is above the 50-day average of $14.96 and the 200-day average of $15.26, both as of 13 November 2026.
The nearest overhead references are the $17.50 July offering price and the $18.28 close of 17 August 2026, the reference point for the three-month change. The 52-week intraday high of $24.28 on 23 April 2026 caps the year's range. The $9.90 close of 28 April 2026 is the post-patent-letter low reported by Pomerantz, and the 52-week closing low is $2.54 on 13 November 2025.
Across US stocks trading at least $5 million a day, the standard deviation of 63-session returns was 27% in 2026, so a three-month outcome for a single clinical-stage name spans a wide range. The presentation falls one week after the earnings report, which concentrates the near-term outcome in a short window.
Catalysts ahead
- 20 November 2026: ERAS-0015 updated Phase 1 AURORAS-1 monotherapy oral presentation at the EORTC-NCI-AACR Symposium, Barcelona. More patients and longer follow-up test whether the preliminary pancreatic responses are confirmed and durable.
- ~31 December 2026 (est.): End of the guided second-half-2026 window for the ERAS-4001 BOREALIS-1 preliminary readout. A readout by this date keeps the second drug on schedule; a slip into 2027 weakens the case.
- ~30 June 2027 (est.): End of the guided first-half-2027 window for ERAS-0015 monotherapy expansion data and the start of the lung cancer registration-enabling trial. These events decide whether the guided move toward pivotal trials proceeds on schedule.
What would change the view
A daily close above $22.47, the highest close of the past year (23 April 2026), which would show the shares leading the S&P 500. A combined pancreatic response rate above 57% in the larger 20 November 2026 dataset would also show them leading.
What it trades with
ERAS trades with other clinical-stage RAS-pathway oncology names. Revolution Medicines' RMC-6236 is the direct comparator for ERAS-0015, and Revolution Medicines is also the counterparty in the patent dispute. Tango Therapeutics is a collaboration partner on the combination trial. Small-cap biotech funding conditions affect the shares through follow-on offering appetite.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Erasca reported a net loss of $51.3 million, or $0.15 per share, for the quarter ended 30 September 2026, versus $30.6 million a year earlier. Erasca third-quarter 2026 release, 12 November 2026 · as of
- Cash, equivalents and marketable securities were $947.8 million at 30 September 2026, against $341.8 million at 31 December 2025. Erasca third-quarter 2026 release, 12 November 2026 · as of
- Research and development expense was $47.2 million in the third quarter of 2026, up from $22.5 million a year earlier. Erasca third-quarter 2026 release, 12 November 2026 · as of
- Erasca will give an oral plenary presentation of updated ERAS-0015 AURORAS-1 monotherapy data, with more patients and longer follow-up, at the EORTC-NCI-AACR Symposium on 20 November 2026. Erasca third-quarter 2026 release, 12 November 2026 · as of
- The 32 mg daily ERAS-0015 pancreatic cohort showed a 57% response rate combining confirmed and unconfirmed responses at the 25 May 2026 cutoff. Erasca second-quarter 2026 release, 11 August 2026 · as of
- Free cash flow was −$109 million over the four quarters to 30 September 2026; the diluted share count rose 21.3% from a year earlier. Erasca 10-Q filed 12 November 2026 · as of
- Tango Therapeutics and Erasca opened enrollment in a Phase 1/2 trial of vopimetostat plus ERAS-0015 in pancreatic and lung cancer. Company news, 4 November 2026 · as of
- The FDA granted ERAS-0015 Fast Track designation for metastatic pancreatic adenocarcinoma. Erasca Fast Track announcement, 24 August 2026 · as of
Sources
- Erasca Reports Third Quarter 2026 Business Updates and Financial Results · biospace.com
- Finviz
- Erasca earnings ahead: Investors eye cash burn, pipeline progress · investing.com ·
- Erasca and Tango Therapeutics Enter into Clinical Collaboration to Evaluate Combination of ERAS-0015 and Vopimetostat · biospace.com
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