RPAY · Repay Holdings
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $4.75
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
12.0% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $4.75, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are up 19.1% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $4.75, the highest close of the last 20 sessions (4 November 2026), would show the shares leading the S&P 500 and prove this call wrong.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Catalyst
Key figures from the filings · Industrials
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 9 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 153
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +97.4
- Gross margin (%)
- 64.9
- Operating margin (%)
- 0.1
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 87.2
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- −245
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 844.7
- Free-cash-flow yield (%)
- 0.0
All filed numbers
What Repay Holdings reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 153 | +97.4 | 64.9 | 0.1 |
| first filed | 101 | +33.2 | 70.1 | −3.2 |
| first filed | 80.8 | +4.5 | 76.1 | 0.0 |
| first filed | 78.6 | +0.4 | 74.2 | −182.2 |
| first filed | 77.7 | −1.8 | 74.4 | −3.9 |
| first filed | 75.6 | +1.0 | 75.7 | −138.7 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | −13.2 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: −170 | −9.3 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +1.1 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 90.3 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 3.1 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 87.2 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 63.8 |
| Debt ($M) long-term debt | 309 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | −245 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) | 26.4 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 75.5 |
| Inventory ($M) | 2.4 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 469 |
| Market value ($M) | 349,039 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 349,284 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 844.7 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to book value (×) | 744.5 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 0.0 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 0.0% of shares outstanding sold short, 13.0 days of average trading to cover, +0.5% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $317K |
| 12 monthsfrom | $6.6M | $332K |
The thesis
Repay Holdings' Q3 2026 report on 9 November 2026 weakened the standalone case: total revenue and profit beat, but the core consumer payments business grew 0.3% organically, and the company cut its organic growth and cash conversion targets. The shares closed at $4.11 on 10 November 2026, below Forager Capital's rejected $5.25 all-cash proposal, and the 7 December 2026 Investor Day is the next event that can show whether management has a plan for the weak segment.
Revenue was $153.4M, up 97% year on year, and adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) was $50.9M (Q3 results, 8-K exhibit, 9 November 2026). Most of the revenue growth came from the KUBRA acquisition, which closed on 1 June 2026. The story is well known: the story is well known, and interest has turned from the Forager bid to the organic growth shortfall disclosed on 9 November 2026.
Bullish and bearish views on Repay Holdings Corporation
The bull case on Repay Holdings Corporation (RPAY), in brief: headline numbers beat estimates. The bear case: the core segment missed.
Bull case
- Headline numbers beat estimates. Q3 sales of $153.398M compared with a $151.974M estimate, and adjusted earnings per share of $0.25 compared with $0.24 (company results as reported by news services, 9 November 2026). Adjusted EBITDA rose from $31.2M a year earlier to $50.9M.
- The full-year revenue outlook held. Management reiterated fiscal 2026 revenue of $490–500M and adjusted EBITDA of $168.5–176M (Q3 release, 9 November 2026). The revenue range brackets the $491.265M estimate cited by news services.
- Business Payments is growing fast. Revenue was $23.9M, up 99%, with normalized organic growth of 40% (Q3 release, 9 November 2026). The segment includes a $3M contribution from a bank reseller partnership.
- Synergy target was raised. The annualized cost synergy run-rate expected exiting 2026 rose to $11M from $8M (Q3 release as summarised by a news search, 9 November 2026). KUBRA grew ahead of management's expectations, according to CEO John Morris.
- Analyst support persists. Canaccord Genuity kept a Buy rating and lowered its target to $7 on 10 November 2026. UBS kept Neutral and raised its target to $4.75 the same day.
Bear case
- The core segment missed. Consumer Payments revenue was $137.0M, up 91%, but organic growth was 0.3% (Q3 release, 9 November 2026). CEO John Morris said organic growth "did not meet our expectations."
- Targets were cut. Normalized organic growth for fiscal 2026 is now 5–6%, down from 7–9%. Free cash flow conversion is now 20–25%, down from 30% (Q3 release, 9 November 2026).
- Cash flow turned negative. Free cash flow was negative $21.1M, which includes a $14M investment in a bank reseller channel partnership. The net loss was $10.4M against $6.6M a year earlier.
- Leverage rose. Net leverage was 3.8 times at quarter-end, up from 3.7 times pro forma in Q2 (Q3 release, 9 November 2026 and Q2 call, 10 August 2026). Liquidity was about $164M, including $64M of cash and an undrawn $100M revolver. A preview published 2 November 2026 cited a goal of under 3 times.
- No forcing event is scheduled. The board rejected the $5.25 proposal in July, the proposal has no stated expiry, and no Forager amendment dated November was found in searches on 11 November 2026.
Price setup
The shares closed at $4.11 on 10 November 2026 (adjusted daily closes), against $4.42 on 28 October 2026. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI, a 0–100 momentum gauge) is 48.7, a neutral reading after 69.2 on 28 October 2026. The 52-week high in the adjusted series is $4.75, and the shares are 13.6% below it. The three-month price change is 7.2%.
The $5.25 Forager proposal sits above that high. The 2 October 2026 close of $3.82 is the nearest prior low in the recent run, and the range held since the 10 August 2026 Q2 report has a lower end near $3.45.
Crowding evidence is thin. No imminent earnings date remains, because Q3 has been reported. Sell-side coverage is five analysts, so a single target change moves the consensus.
Catalysts ahead
- 7 December 2026: Investor Day in New York, 10:00 a.m. ET. Management may set targets for Consumer Payments organic growth and leverage after the Q3 shortfall.
Elapsed catalysts
- ~12 November 2026 (est.): Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 September 2026. Gives segment detail, debt terms and any update on the Forager proposal. (passed)
What would change the view
A daily close above $4.75, the highest close of the last 20 sessions (4 November 2026), would show the shares leading the S&P 500 and prove this call wrong.
What it trades with
Repay trades on its own company events more than on a sector move: the Forager proposal and the KUBRA deal drove the shares in 2026. Its floating-rate $500M term loan led by Silver Point Capital ties its interest cost to short-term rates. Consumer Payments depends on enterprise clients going live and on political media volume, which contributed 9 points of the Q3 organic growth figure. Other small-cap payments and bill-payment names offer a loose comparison.
The evidence, claim by claim (7)
- Q3 2026 revenue $153.4M, up 97% year on year; organic growth 14% including 9 points of political media; adjusted EBITDA $50.9M; net loss $10.4M; free cash flow negative $21.1M including a $14M bank reseller investment; net leverage 3.8x. Q3 2026 results, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 · as of
- Consumer Payments revenue $137.0M, up 91%, organic growth 0.3%; Business Payments revenue $23.9M, up 99%, normalized organic growth 40%. Q3 2026 results, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 · as of
- Fiscal 2026 revenue $490-500M and adjusted EBITDA $168.5-176M reiterated; normalized organic growth cut to 5-6% from 7-9%; free cash flow conversion cut to 20-25% from 30%. Q3 2026 results, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 · as of
- Q3 sales of $153.398M versus $151.974M estimate; adjusted EPS $0.25 versus $0.24 estimate. News-service earnings summary · as of
- Canaccord Genuity maintained Buy and lowered its target to $7; UBS maintained Neutral and raised its target to $4.75. Analyst rating headlines · as of
- Shares closed at $4.11 against a 52-week high of $4.75; 14-day RSI 48.7. Adjusted daily closes · as of
- Investor Day scheduled for 7 December 2026 in New York at 10:00 a.m. ET; no targets stated. Company release via Business Wire · as of
Sources
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