PESI · Perma-Fix Environmental Services
Conviction · Medium · more likely to lead the S&P 500 over the next three months, by a modest margin
Wrong if: a daily close below $12.80
Note written ·
How this view changed
- · Rated Medium. Results, 5 November 2026: Q3 2026 revenue of $17.948 million beat the $14.9 million consensus and exceeded Q2's $12.885 million; consolidated gross profit turned positive at $552,000 and treatment backlog rose to $19.6 million.
Price against the kill line
16.3% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
The red mark is the price level of the published kill line: a close through it (a weekly close, on a weekly line) would prove the research note wrong on price. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026; a dot left of the mark has closed through its line.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close below $12.80, on record since 10 November 2026. The shares are down 15.6% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close below $12.80, the pre-report close of 14 October 2026 that the shares also reached on 4 November 2026 and that would erase the post-report rebound. A first Hanford task order that fails to arrive by the Q4 report would also break the case.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Catalyst
Key figures from the filings · Industrials
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 5 November 2026
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 17.9
- Gross margin (%)
- 3.1
- Operating margin (%)
- −20.4
All filed numbers
What Perma-Fix Environmental Services reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 17.9 | — | 3.1 | −20.4 |
| first filed | 12.9 | — | −19.4 | −50.5 |
| first filed | 11.1 | — | −25.9 | −67.3 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | −3.4 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: −22.8 | −3.5 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +14.9 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | Not available |
| Capital spending ($M) | Not available |
| Free cash flow ($M) | Not available |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | Not reported |
| Debt ($M) long-term debt | 1.8 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | Not available |
| Deferred revenue ($M) +41.1% on a year | 10.0 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 10.3 |
| Inventory ($M) | 2.9 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 55.2 |
| Market value ($M) | Not available |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | Not available |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | Not available |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not available |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not available |
| Price to book value (×) | Not available |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | Not available |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): the share of shares outstanding is not available, 11.4 days of average trading to cover, +10.3% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $0 |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $0 |
The thesis
Perma-Fix Environmental Services reported third-quarter 2026 revenue of $17.948 million, against $12.885 million in the second quarter, per the company's 5 November 2026 release. Treatment still ran a gross loss, going-concern doubt remains, and the first Hanford task order under the master subcontract settles whether the rebound holds.
The adjusted close was $15.59 on 9 November 2026, 19.8% below the 52-week high of $19.43. A Finviz news summary puts the close at $12.81 on 4 November 2026, the day before the report, and shows the shares up 9.42% on 6 November 2026.
The story is well known: the Hanford award has been public since 12 August 2026, and the 5 November 2026 call moved several Hanford milestones later. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), a gauge of how one-sided recent price moves have been, was 73.6 on 9 November 2026, up from 30.5 on 27 October 2026.
Crowding evidence is limited to price and issuance. The RSI reading is high after a sharp rebound, and the weighted average share count was up about 15% year over year after the May 2026 equity offering, per a Finviz summary of the Q3 call.
Bullish and bearish views on Perma-Fix Environmental Services, Inc.
The bull case on Perma-Fix Environmental Services, Inc. (PESI), in brief: revenue cleared the bar. The bear case: treatment lost money at the gross line.
Bull case
- Revenue cleared the bar. Q3 revenue of $17.948 million beat the $14.9 million consensus and Q2's $12.885 million, per the 5 November 2026 release and Finviz. Services revenue rose 46% year over year to $6.347 million.
- Gross profit turned positive. Consolidated gross profit was $552,000, against a $2.5 million gross loss in Q2. Net loss narrowed to $3.462 million from $6.2 million in Q2, and the $0.16 loss per share beat a $0.21 consensus loss.
- Backlog keeps building. Treatment backlog was $19.6 million at 30 September 2026, up about 25% in the quarter and about 65% from year-end 2025, per the release. Management said price increases starting in August are showing in new backlog.
- A task order may be close. On the 5 November 2026 call, management said it expects the first Master IDIQ (indefinite-delivery, indefinite-quantity) task order within weeks, per a Finviz summary. Delivery volumes at the DFLAW (Direct-Feed Low-Activity Waste) facility run near 16,000 gallons a month, roughly $17-18 million annualized.
- One analyst target sits far above the price. Craig-Hallum analyst Aaron Spychalla raised his target to $30 from $25 on 13 August 2026, per TipRanks. A newer target was not found.
Bear case
- Treatment lost money at the gross line. Treatment revenue was $11.601 million, down from $13.114 million a year earlier, with a gross loss of $225,000 against a 17.3% gross margin in Q3 2025. Causes cited were an idle Hanford waste stream, thermal-unit downtime at Florida and Kingston, and about $1.1 million of added fixed costs.
- Management missed its own breakeven goal. The net loss widened from $1.835 million in Q3 2025. Nine-month 2026 revenue was $41.959 million against $45.959 million a year earlier, with a net loss of $17.149 million.
- Hanford timelines slipped. East Area AP-106 grouting, guided to start in Q4 2026, is now likely to slip several months. The full-rate DFLAW revenue opportunity was cut to $35-70 million from $70 million, and 2026 throughput is now guided to 300,000-400,000 gallons against a 500,000-gallon goal, per the Finviz call summary.
- Cash fell and going-concern doubt remains. Cash was $14.743 million at 30 September 2026, down from $20.5 million at the end of Q2. The Q3 10-Q says the doubt has not been alleviated.
- The ceiling is not committed revenue. The roughly $4.4 billion ceiling is shared among three holders, and the company has no awarded amount.
Price setup
The adjusted close was $15.59 on 9 November 2026, against a 52-week high of $19.43 and a three-month price change of a decline of 19.8%. The shares closed at $17.45 on 18 September 2026, $12.80 on 14 October 2026 and $12.92 on 27 October 2026, then rebounded after the report.
The 14-day RSI of 73.6 on 9 November 2026 compares with 30.5 on 27 October 2026 and 12.7 on 14 October 2026. The sell-off has reversed, and recent moves are now one-sided to the upside.
The $12.80 level is the 14 October 2026 close and was matched by the $12.81 close on 4 November 2026. A daily close below it would erase the post-report rebound. The $19.43 high is the upper reference; a close above it would show the market pricing in task-order evidence.
Catalysts ahead
- ~30 November 2026 (est.): First task order under the Hanford H2C master subcontract; management said on 5 November 2026 it expects one within weeks. It would be the first dollar amount tied to Perma-Fix under the shared $4.4 billion ceiling.
- 11 December 2026: Continuing resolution expiry for federal agency funding. Sets whether Department of Energy cleanup spending is funded for FY2027 or another stopgap follows.
- 31 December 2026 (est.): Gen 2.0 PFAS destruction unit commissioning, guided to Q4 2026. Starts the new PFAS capacity that management expects to operate in the first half of 2027.
- 1 January 2027: Hanford master subcontract ordering period opens. First date on which task-order dollars can be committed under the shared ceiling.
What would change the view
A daily close below $12.80, the pre-report close of 14 October 2026 that the shares also reached on 4 November 2026 and that would erase the post-report rebound. A first Hanford task order that fails to arrive by the Q4 report would also break the case.
The risks this note tracks, each with what would confirm it:
- Treatment margin stays negative even as revenue and backlog grow. Confirmed by: a Q4 2026 treatment gross loss at or near the $225,000 reported for Q3, or consolidated gross profit below $552,000.
- Hanford timelines keep slipping, delaying grouting and DFLAW volume. Confirmed by: further delays to AP-106 grouting beyond the several-month slip stated on 5 November 2026, or 2026 DFLAW throughput below the 300,000-400,000 gallons guided.
- Cash burn forces more equity issuance while going-concern doubt remains. Confirmed by: cash below the $14.743 million reported at 30 September 2026 at the next report, or a new equity offering.
- The first Hanford task order is late or small. Confirmed by: no task order announced by the Q4 report, or an order that company disclosure puts at a small share of the $4.4 billion ceiling.
What it trades with
Perma-Fix's revenue depends on Department of Energy Hanford cleanup spending and federal appropriations. This makes the shares more sensitive to budget and contracting news than to broad market direction. The stock is a small-cap with thin analyst coverage, so single releases move it by large percentages, as the 9.42% gain on 6 November 2026 shows. No current theme cluster includes the name.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Q3 2026 revenue was $17.948 million (Q3 2025: $17.454 million); treatment revenue was $11.601 million and services revenue $6.347 million, up 46% year over year. Perma-Fix Q3 2026 results release · as of
- Consolidated gross profit was $552,000 (Q3 2025: $2.557 million); treatment ran a gross loss of $225,000; net loss was $3.462 million, or $0.16 per share. Perma-Fix Q3 2026 results release · as of
- Treatment backlog was $19.6 million, up about 25% in the quarter and about 65% from year-end 2025. Perma-Fix Q3 2026 results release · as of
- Cash was $14.743 million at quarter-end, with about $19.9 million of liquidity at PNC; the credit facility maturity was extended from May 2027 to May 2030 in August 2026. Perma-Fix Q3 2026 results release and 10-Q · as of
- Revenue beat the $14.9 million consensus and the $(0.16) loss per share beat the $(0.21) consensus. Finviz news summary of Q3 2026 results · as of
- DFLAW effluent volumes run near 16,000 gallons a month, roughly $17-18 million annualized; management expects the first Master IDIQ task order within weeks. Finviz summary of the Q3 2026 earnings call · as of
- East Area AP-106 grouting, guided to start in Q4 2026, is now likely to slip several months; the full-rate DFLAW revenue opportunity was cut to $35-70 million from $70 million. Finviz summary of the Q3 2026 earnings call · as of
- Adjusted daily close was $15.59 on 9 November 2026 against a 52-week high of $19.43; the 14-day RSI was 73.6. Split/dividend-adjusted daily closes · as of
Sources