IDYA · IDEAYA Biosciences
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $35.80
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
11.1% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $35.80, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 12.9% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $35.80, which would put the shares back above their 50-day average and show them leading the S&P 500. FDA acceptance of the darovasertib NDA with priority review would also show the shares leading.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Catalyst
Key figures from the filings · Health Care
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 3 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 10.2
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- −95.1
- Operating margin (%)
- −1343.8
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- −350
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- 839
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 61.3
- Free-cash-flow yield (%)
- −11.4
All filed numbers
What IDEAYA Biosciences reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 10.2 | −95.1 | −1343.8 |
| first filed | 8.9 | — | −1380.7 |
| first filed | 6.6 | — | −1654.6 |
| first filed | 10.9 | +55.4 | −869.5 |
| first filed | 208 | — | 52.2 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | Not reported |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: −420 | −126 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +14.8 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | −347 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 2.4 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | −350 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 839 |
| Debt ($M) | None reported |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) no debt reported | 839 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) at 30 September 2025, filed 4 November 2025 | 2.2 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) −2.3% on a year | 140 |
| Receivables ($M) | Not reported |
| Inventory ($M) | Not reported |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 1,092 |
| Market value ($M) | 3,078 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) no debt reported | 2,239 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) no debt reported | 61.3 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to book value (×) | 2.8 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | −11.4 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 9.4% of shares outstanding sold short, 12.0 days of average trading to cover, −1.1% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $985K |
| 12 monthsfrom | $1.6M | $1.4M |
The thesis
IDEAYA Biosciences is more likely to lag the S&P 500 than beat it over the next three months, even with its darovasertib application filed. A Phase 3 trial was closed for poor enrollment, six brokers have set or cut targets since the 3 November 2026 report, and the shares sit below their 200-day average. FDA acceptance of the filing and the two IDE849 Phase 3 starts guided for year-end settle the call.
IDEAYA's third-quarter release says it submitted the new drug application (NDA) for darovasertib plus crizotinib in metastatic uveal melanoma, an eye cancer that has spread, under the FDA's Real-Time Oncology Review program. The release gives no FDA acceptance date or decision date. The open questions are the FDA's response and how much the drug will earn.
The shares closed at $32.72 on 11 November 2026, 10.8% lower over three months. That price already reflects the trial closure and the target cuts, while the highest post-report target, Citi's $66, sits far above it.
Bullish and bearish views on IDEAYA Biosciences, Inc.
The bull case on IDEAYA Biosciences, Inc. (IDYA), in brief: the application is submitted. The bear case: a Phase 3 trial failed to enroll.
Bull case
- The application is submitted. IDEAYA's 3 November 2026 release says the NDA went in during the third quarter under Real-Time Oncology Review. William Blair, which initiated with an Outperform rating, cited a possible first-half 2027 approval, according to Investing.com.
- Randomized results support the filing. At the 1 June 2026 American Society of Clinical Oncology presentation, OptimUM-02 reported median progression-free survival of 6.9 months versus 3.1 months for investigator's choice. The hazard ratio was 0.42 and the p-value was below 0.0001.
- IDE849 has a registrational plan. IDEAYA's 3 November 2026 release targets two Phase 3 starts by year-end 2026, in small cell lung cancer and neuroendocrine carcinoma. The lung trial plans 400 patients previously treated with tarlatamab. Partner Hengrui's Phase 1 study showed a 72.5% response rate (37 of 51 patients) at a 21 August 2026 data cutoff.
- Cash covers the pipeline. IDEAYA reported about $1.15 billion in cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities at 30 September 2026 and left its runway guidance into 2030 unchanged. It expects $100-125 million of savings from the closed trial.
- Several firms still carry high targets. Citi raised its target to $66 on 5 November 2026. Wedbush's target is $63 and Truist's is $57. Mizuho kept its Outperform rating on 10 November 2026 while lowering its target to $39.
Bear case
- A Phase 3 trial failed to enroll. IDEAYA's 3 November 2026 release says it ended enrollment and is closing OptimUM-010 because of site activation and enrollment challenges. The release does not say how the closure bears on darovasertib's later uses.
- Targets keep coming down. On 4 November 2026 RBC lowered its target to $45, Guggenheim to $52 and Truist to $57 from $59. Mizuho followed with a cut to $39 on 10 November 2026. Investing.com reports that Truist's cut reflected lower uveal melanoma revenue estimates for darovasertib.
- Spending is rising before any product sales. Third-quarter net loss was $125.7 million against $112.5 million in the second quarter. Research and development expense was $121.6 million against $108.7 million, and general and administrative expense was $26.3 million, per the company's results release.
- Share count has grown. Weighted-average shares reached 102.9 million in the third quarter, up from 92.1 million in the second, after the June 2026 offering priced at $27.00 and netted $323.4 million.
- OptimUM-01 is a mixed result. IDEAYA's 19 October 2026 release shows a 22.1% response rate (19 of 86 evaluable patients), median progression-free survival of 5.4 months and median overall survival of 13.4 months at a 23 March 2026 cutoff.
- The chief executive sold shares. An SEC Form 4 filed 8 October 2026 shows Yujiro Hata, president and chief executive, exercised options for 26,338 shares at $4.31 and sold 26,338 shares at an average $37.41 on 6 October 2026, under a Rule 10b5-1 plan.
Price setup
The shares closed at $32.72 on 11 November 2026, which is 23.3% below the 52-week intraday high of $42.68 set on 25 August 2026. The 52-week closing low is $27.60, from 10 June 2026, and the June offering priced at $27.00 on 9 June 2026.
Recent closes: $32.36 on 4 November 2026, $30.65 on 5 November 2026, $31.24 on 6 November 2026, $32.03 on 9 November 2026, $31.75 on 10 November 2026 and $32.72 on 11 November 2026. The shares have recovered from the post-report low but remain below the 200-day average of $33.87 and below the 50-day average, both as of 11 November 2026.
The 3-month reference close was $36.68 on 13 August 2026. The 50-day average is the nearest overhead level and the one the call is tested against.
Catalysts ahead
- 16 November 2026: IDEAYA Investor R&D Day in London, covering preclinical work on MTAP/CDKN2A deficiency in KRAS-mutant cancers. Shows how IDEAYA ranks its early pancreatic and lung cancer programs after reallocating savings from the closed OptimUM-010 trial.
- ~31 December 2026 (est.): FDA acceptance decision on the darovasertib NDA; the company has disclosed no date. Acceptance would bring the first dated regulatory milestone and show whether the review is prioritized. A refusal to file would break the case for the drug.
- ~31 December 2026 (est.): End of the guided window for two IDE849 Phase 3 starts in small cell lung cancer and neuroendocrine carcinoma. Tests whether the second program stays on schedule after an enrollment failure closed a darovasertib Phase 3 trial.
- ~31 December 2026 (est.): First results from the global IDE849 Phase 1/2 trial, guided for the end of 2026 or early 2027. Shows whether the 72.5% response rate from Hengrui's study in China carries over to a global population.
What would change the view
A daily close above $35.80, which would put the shares back above their 50-day average and show them leading the S&P 500. FDA acceptance of the darovasertib NDA with priority review would also show the shares leading.
What it trades with
The price path follows company events: the shares fell across the third-quarter report and the target cuts that followed. No measured correlation figure is cited here.
Read-across comes mainly from partners. Servier shares darovasertib, with $139.8 million of collaboration revenue from its license still to be recognized at 30 September 2026. Hengrui originated IDE849, and Roche's RG6505 is the planned partner drug for IDE892. Results or timetable changes in those programs bear directly on IDEAYA.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- IDEAYA submitted the NDA for darovasertib plus crizotinib in metastatic uveal melanoma under FDA Real-Time Oncology Review during the third quarter; no acceptance or decision date was given. IDEAYA Q3 2026 results, 8-K Exhibit 99.1 · as of
- IDEAYA ended enrollment and is closing the Phase 3 OptimUM-010 trial because of site activation and enrollment challenges, with estimated savings of $100-125 million. IDEAYA Q3 2026 results, 8-K Exhibit 99.1 · as of
- Cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities were about $1.15 billion; runway guidance into 2030 was unchanged. IDEAYA Q3 2026 results, 8-K Exhibit 99.1 · as of
- Third-quarter collaboration revenue was $10.2 million, R&D expense $121.6 million, G&A expense $26.3 million and net loss $125.7 million. IDEAYA Q3 2026 results, 8-K Exhibit 99.1 · as of
- OptimUM-02 median progression-free survival was 6.9 months versus 3.1 months for investigator's choice (hazard ratio 0.42, p<0.0001). ASCO 2026 late-breaking oral presentation · as of
- IDE849 second-line small cell lung cancer response rate was 72.5% (37/51) and median overall survival 17.4 months in Hengrui's Phase 1 study; data cutoff 21 August 2026. IDEAYA press release / ESMO poster 3815P · as of
- After the Q3 report: Citi target $66, Wedbush $63, Truist $57, Guggenheim $52, RBC $45; Mizuho lowered its target to $39 and kept Outperform. Analyst-rating reports, 3 November to 10 November 2026 · as of
- CEO Yujiro Hata exercised 26,338 options at $4.31 and sold 26,338 shares at an average $37.41 under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. SEC Form 4 filed 8 October 2026 · as of
Sources
- IDEAYA Biosciences, Inc. - Form 8-K - FY2026 · sec.gov ·
- IDEAYA Biosciences Reports Financial Results for the Third Quarter 2026 and Provides a Business Update · biopharmawatch.com ·
- Truist cuts Ideaya Biosciences stock price target on revised estimates · investing.com
- William Blair initiates Ideaya Biosciences stock with outperform rating · investing.com
- media.ideayabio.com ·
Related · shared themes
IBRX
ImmunityBio
ImmunityBio's third-quarter Anktiva revenue of $48.7 million fell below the second quarter's $50.7 million, and the shares are more likely…
ZYME
Zymeworks
Zymeworks shares have a modest edge over the S&P 500 after the company raised 2026 revenue guidance to $337–351 million on 9 November 2026…
CGEM
Cullinan Therapeutics
Cullinan Therapeutics is more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months: the shares closed at $10.19 on 12 November 2026, below both…
CRVS
Corvus Pharmaceuticals
Corvus Pharmaceuticals' soquelitinib shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months: the Angel eczema readout slipped to March…
See also · stocks to watch