IMAX · Imax
Conviction · Medium · more likely to lead the S&P 500 over the next three months, by a modest margin
Wrong if: a weekly close below $47.00
Note written ·
In the portfolio Since : +0.8% from the average price paid for its shares, 0.6 percentage points ahead of the S&P 500 from the minute it was bought. See the portfolio.
Why it was bought
Bought 13 November 2026 on results. The fact behind it, dated 5 November 2026: Q3 2026 results: revenue rose 64% to $174.6 million, adjusted EBITDA was $120.9 million at a 69.3% margin, and the 2026 adjusted EBITDA margin target was raised to about 50% from the mid-40s.
Price against the kill line
2.7% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
The red mark is the price level of the published kill line: a close through it (a weekly close, on a weekly line) would prove the research note wrong on price. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026; a dot left of the mark has closed through its line.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a weekly close below $47.00, on record since 10 November 2026; only a weekly close settles it. The shares are down 7.8% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A weekly close below $47.00, under the $47.67 post-report closing low of 6 November 2026, which would show the market rejecting the record quarter. Also breaking the case: full-year 2026 installations below 160 systems, or 2027 global IMAX box-office guidance below $1.2 billion.
The portfolio's case
IMAX's Q3 2026 revenue rose 64% to $174.6 million and its 2026 adjusted EBITDA margin target rose to about 50%. Consensus 2027 earnings of about $2.00 a share sit below the adjusted $2.21 earned in nine months of 2026, so the price assumes a peak year. Dune: Part Three pre-sales passed $30 million in a month, and at least 12 Filmed for IMAX titles follow in 2027.
The portfolio sells if one of these comes true
- 2027 global IMAX box office guidance, due early 2027, below $1.2 billion (2026 guide: significantly above $1.4 billion; 2025 actual: $1.28 billion).
- Full-year 2026 installations below the 160 low end of the guided 160–175 systems (89 installed through Q3 2026).
- System backlog below 380 (Q3 2026: 409), or Dune: Part Three, opening 18 December 2026, losing its reported three-week domestic IMAX exclusivity.
It can also sell when that day's research finds the stock fully priced, for a clearly better use of the money, to limit risk in the portfolio, on the weekly review's plan, when a cash takeover pays the shares out or at the end set for a shorter trade when it was bought. A close through the kill line (on a weekly line, a weekly close) means the note's call is wrong: the note is re-read, and the portfolio reads the new note at its next decision. The price alone never sells.
Catalyst
The business · as of
IMAX licenses its large-format cinema systems to theatre chains and remasters studio films for them, earning a share of box-office receipts, plus system sales, leases and maintenance fees. Filed revenue was $175 million in the quarter to 30 September 2026, up 63.7% from a year earlier.
What is changing, and what follows · as of
- What is changing now
- On 5 November 2026 IMAX reported record third-quarter revenue of $174.6 million, up 64%, and raised its adjusted EBITDA margin target to approximately 50% from the mid-40% range.
- What follows for the company
- The filed operating margin reached 42.9% in the quarter to 30 September 2026, and free cash flow was $146 million over four quarters, against $244 million of convertible and credit-line debt.
- What follows for its customers, suppliers and competitors
- Studios Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD), Comcast (CMCSA) and Netflix (NFLX) gain a premium window; AMC Entertainment (AMC) shares receipts; Disney (DIS) pushes its own Infinity Vision label.
What the price assumes · as of
At the 13 November 2026 close (filed inputs to 5 November 2026) the shares trade at a P/E of 19.9, EV/EBIT of 20.8 and EV/sales of 5.6, with a 5.5% free-cash-flow yield; that holds only if the 42.9% operating margin of the quarter to 30 September 2026 does not slide back toward the 12.2% of the March 2026 quarter once The Odyssey's receipts pass.
Key figures from the filings · Technology
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 5 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 175
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +63.7
- Gross margin (%)
- 72.4
- Operating margin (%)
- 42.9
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 146
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- −36.1
- Price to earnings (×)
- 19.9
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 5.6
All filed numbers
What Imax reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 175 | +63.7 | 72.4 | 42.9 |
| first filed | 103 | +12.2 | 61.2 | 20.2 |
| first filed | 81.4 | −6.1 | 56.3 | 12.2 |
| first filed | 125 | +35.1 | 57.6 | 19.3 |
| first filed | 107 | +16.6 | 63.1 | 27.2 |
| first filed | 91.7 | +3.1 | 58.5 | 15.6 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 73.8 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 134 | 114 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +4.4 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 152 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 5.5 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 146 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 208 |
| Debt ($M) convertible debt plus credit line | 244 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | −36.1 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) −11.5% on a year | 57.1 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) at 31 December 2025, filed 25 February 2026; +6.8% on a year | 28.3 |
| Receivables ($M) | 139 |
| Inventory ($M) | 45.2 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 492 |
| Market value ($M) | 2,666 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 2,702 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 5.6 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | 20.8 |
| Price to earnings (×) | 19.9 |
| Price to book value (×) | 5.4 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 5.5 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 12.6% of shares outstanding sold short, 6.6 days of average trading to cover, +4.0% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $29.1M |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $70.3M |
Linked companies · as of
- Competitors:
- DIS
The thesis
IMAX Corporation's record third quarter and higher margin target make it modestly more likely than not that the shares beat the S&P 500 over the next three months. Two events settle the case. The first is Dune: Part Three, which opens on 18 December 2026. The second is management's 2027 box-office guidance, due early in 2027 on a date not yet set. Together they show whether premium-format demand outlasts The Odyssey.
The 5 November 2026 report beat estimates. Management said it expects to "significantly exceed" $1.4 billion of 2026 IMAX box office. It raised its adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) margin target to approximately 50%, from the mid-40% range. It kept its range of 160–175 system installations for the year.
The shares have not followed the results. They closed at $48.29 on 13 November 2026, down 7.8% over three months and below the 50-day moving average. The market is treating 2026 as a peak year until the 2027 guidance shows otherwise. The 2027 slate has started to fill: Netflix confirmed that Greta Gerwig's Narnia: The Magician's Nephew opens in IMAX and wide on 12 February 2027. The rating is medium because the results and the December slate point up, while the price, the first post-report target cut and the missing 2027 guidance point the other way.
Bullish and bearish views on Imax Corp
The bull case on Imax Corp (IMAX), in brief: results beat estimates by a wide margin. The bear case: the shares fell on a record report.
Bull case
- Results beat estimates by a wide margin. The 5 November 2026 release showed revenue of $174.6 million, up 64%, against a $168.5 million estimate, according to Benzinga. Adjusted earnings per share were $2.21 against a $1.02 estimate; the company put the figure at $1.58 without a $36.7 million tax benefit.
- Margins expanded on record receipts. Adjusted EBITDA was $120.9 million in the third quarter, a 69.3% margin, according to the 5 November 2026 release. The filed gross margin was 72.4% and the operating margin 42.9% in the quarter to 30 September 2026, against 63.1% and 27.2% a year earlier.
- Box office set a record on one title. IMAX box office reached $712.1 million in the third quarter, up 94%, with $538 million from The Odyssey, according to the third-quarter Form 10-Q.
- Dune pre-sales trail only The Odyssey. Management said on 5 November 2026 that Dune: Part Three took more than $30 million in pre-sales in its first month, the second-highest in company history. Entertainment press reports that the film holds domestic IMAX screens for three weeks from its 18 December 2026 opening, ahead of Avengers: Doomsday.
- The early 2027 slate includes a Netflix release. Netflix's release page dates Narnia: The Magician's Nephew to IMAX and wide theatres on 12 February 2027, with IMAX-only previews from 10 February 2027, according to Boxoffice Pro's report of the move.
- A Japanese title opened strongly on IMAX screens. IMAX said on 9 November 2026 that its screens took 34% of Godzilla Minus Zero's $21.3 million global opening, the biggest IMAX global opening for a Japanese film.
- Cash generation is strong. Filed free cash flow was $146 million over the four quarters to 30 September 2026, on capital spending of $5.5 million.
Bear case
- The shares fell on a record report. Since the 5 November 2026 report, the shares have closed between $47.67 on 6 November 2026 and $48.91 on 10 November 2026, below the 50-day moving average throughout.
- The first post-report target move was a cut. Wells Fargo kept its Equal-Weight rating and lowered its target to $52 from $55 on 6 November 2026, according to Benzinga and MarketBeat.
- There is no 2027 guidance yet. Chief executive Rich Gelfond said on 5 November 2026 that guidance would come "sometime early next year" because the 2027 film slate is not yet full.
- Installations and backlog are shrinking. IMAX installed 32 systems in the third quarter, against 38 a year earlier, and backlog fell to 409 systems from 478, according to the 5 November 2026 release. With 89 systems installed through the third quarter, the fourth quarter has to carry a large share of the 160–175 range.
- Local-language receipts collapsed in the third quarter. According to the Form 10-Q, local-language films generated $36.5 million in the third quarter of 2026, 5% of IMAX box office, against $120.2 million, or 33%, a year earlier.
- Senior executives sold in late summer. SEC Form 4 filings show open-market sales by Gelfond (456,757 shares at an average of $52.51 from 18 August to 20 August 2026, under a Rule 10b5-1 plan), chief financial officer Natasha Fernandes (20,000 shares at $54.63 on 24 August 2026), Mark Welton (30,000 shares at $54.47 on 25 August 2026) and chief legal officer Robert Lister (22,500 shares at $51.58 on 10 September 2026).
- Disney is promoting a rival format label. Disney is releasing Avengers: Doomsday on 18 December 2026 under its own Infinity Vision premium-format label; the film lost its opening U.S. IMAX screens to Dune: Part Three.
Price setup
The shares closed at $48.29 on 13 November 2026. That is 16.4% below the 52-week intraday high of $57.73, set on 28 September 2026. The 52-week closing low was $33.09 on 19 May 2026.
As of 13 November 2026, the 50-day moving average was $51.83 and the 200-day was $43.55, so the shares trade between the two. The lowest close since the report is $47.67 on 6 November 2026, and the shares have held within about $1.25 of it for six sessions. The Meta announcement session of 10 November 2026 closed at $48.91, against $48.84 the session before, so the VR deal barely moved the price.
A close back above the 50-day average would show the post-report decline reversing. A close above the $57.73 high before the 2027 guidance would show the market already pricing durable demand. A move toward the 200-day average would show the market discounting a weaker 2027.
Catalysts ahead
- 18 December 2026: Scheduled opening of Dune: Part Three, with reported three-week domestic IMAX exclusivity. Tests whether premium-format demand extends beyond The Odyssey, after first-month pre-sales of more than $30 million; losing the exclusive screens to Avengers: Doomsday would weaken the case.
- ~31 December 2026 (est.): Dune: Part Three opens in China, following the Avengers: Doomsday holiday run in IMAX. Tests management's 5 November 2026 comment that China will finish the year pretty much on budget after a weak first half.
- 12 February 2027: Narnia: The Magician's Nephew opens in IMAX and wide theatres, with IMAX-only previews from 10 February 2027. The first large 2027 release on IMAX screens shows whether early-2027 receipts can follow the record 2026.
- ~26 February 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter 2026 results and 2027 box-office guidance; no date announced. Shows whether full-year installations reached at least 160 systems and gives the first formal 2027 box-office figure, set against the $1.2 billion level and the record 2026.
What would change the view
A weekly close below $47.00, under the $47.67 post-report closing low of 6 November 2026, which would show the market rejecting the record quarter. Also breaking the case: full-year 2026 installations below 160 systems, or 2027 global IMAX box-office guidance below $1.2 billion.
The risks this note tracks, each with what would confirm it:
- Rival studios adopt Disney's Infinity Vision large-screen label, weakening IMAX's premium pricing. Confirmed by: a named major studio publicly commits releases to Disney's format label.
- Demand is concentrated in The Odyssey and fades after it. Confirmed by: management's 2027 global IMAX box-office guidance comes in below $1.2 billion, or Dune: Part Three receipts disappoint after strong pre-sales.
- Backlog does not convert to installations at the pace guidance requires. Confirmed by: the fourth-quarter report shows full-year 2026 installations below 160 systems, or system backlog below 380 from 409 at 30 September 2026.
- Margins fall back once the record third quarter passes. Confirmed by: full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA margin reported under the approximately 50% target set on 5 November 2026.
- Analysts lower targets now that the record quarter has been reported. Confirmed by: more target cuts follow Wells Fargo's 6 November 2026 move to $52.
What it trades with
The shares move with the film-release calendar and the global box office, the same drivers behind cinema operators such as AMC Entertainment. In any quarter, that exposure comes mostly from one title: The Odyssey produced $538 million of the $712.1 million in third-quarter IMAX box office, and Dune: Part Three now carries the fourth quarter.
China is a separate driver. Gelfond said on 5 November 2026 that China would finish "pretty much on budget for the year" after a weak first half. The network spanned 1,887 systems in 91 countries and territories at 30 September 2026, which adds foreign-exchange exposure. The Meta agreement of 10 November 2026 links IMAX to consumer VR hardware from spring 2027; that link is small next to the box office. Across liquid US stocks, the standard deviation of 63-session returns was 27% in 2026, so single-film outcomes can move the shares far in either direction within one quarter.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- IMAX reported third-quarter 2026 revenue of $174.6 million, up 64%, and adjusted EBITDA of $120.9 million, a 69.3% margin. IMAX Q3 2026 results release, Form 8-K · as of
- IMAX film box office was a record $712.1 million in the third quarter, up 94% from a year earlier, including $538 million from The Odyssey. IMAX third-quarter 2026 Form 10-Q · as of
- Management expects to significantly exceed $1.4 billion in 2026 box office, targets an approximately 50% adjusted EBITDA margin and keeps its 160–175 installation range. IMAX 5 November 2026 earnings call transcript · as of
- IMAX installed 32 systems in the third quarter against 38 a year earlier, with a backlog of 409 systems against 478 a year earlier. IMAX Q3 2026 results release, Form 8-K · as of
- Dune: Part Three took more than $30 million in pre-sales in its first month, the second-highest in IMAX's history, according to management. IMAX 5 November 2026 earnings call transcript · as of
- IMAX screens took 34% of Godzilla Minus Zero's $21.3 million global opening, the biggest IMAX global opening for a Japanese film. IMAX press release, 9 November 2026 · as of
- Wells Fargo kept its Equal-Weight rating on IMAX and cut its price target to $52 from $55. Benzinga and MarketBeat analyst alerts, 6 November 2026 · as of
- Netflix dates Narnia: The Magician's Nephew to IMAX and wide theatres on 12 February 2027, with IMAX-only previews from 10 February 2027 and Netflix streaming from 2 April 2027. Netflix Tudum release page; Boxoffice Pro · as of
Sources
- SEC EDGAR
- IMAX (IMAX) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript · fool.com ·
- SEC EDGAR
- Netflix Moves NARNIA to February 2027, Committing to Wide Release and Full Theatrical Window · boxofficepro.com
- imax.com
- IMAX (NYSE:IMAX) Price Target Cut to $52.00 by Analysts at Wells Fargo & Company · marketbeat.com ·
- Meta and IMAX sign deal to put an IMAX theatre in Meta's VR Glasses · thenextweb.com ·
- 'Avengers: Doomsday' Loses US IMAX Opening Weekend to 'Dune: Part Three' · netflixjunkie.com
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