IMOS · ChipMOS TECHNOLOGIES

The thesis

ChipMOS's profit is rising with memory demand, but its US-listed shares have fallen faster than the business has slowed, and the 10 November 2026 close of $48.25 is 42.1% below the 52-week high of $83.30. The case for a recovery rests on the fourth quarter holding the third quarter's record revenue; the November monthly revenue release, expected around 10 December 2026, is the next test.

Digitimes reported on 11 November 2026 that third-quarter net income was NT$1.323 billion, up 48.4% from the second quarter and the highest since 2022. October revenue was NT$2,850.6 million (US$87.5 million), up 2.1% from September and 30.9% from October 2025, per the company's Form 6-K.

The price did not follow. The shares closed at $48.25 on 10 November 2026, per adjusted daily closes. They have fallen 16.5% over three months, and the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) was 31.9. The shares are also below the $52.16 200-day moving average that SwingTradeBot reported on 27 October 2026.

The story is well known: the memory recovery behind ChipMOS is widely known, and the shares have fallen since the 2 October 2026 high even as the 8 October 2026 record revenue and the 10 November 2026 profit figures arrived. The standing view is that earnings are improving while the shares carry no confirmation of it. The third-quarter gross margin was not available for this note; the second quarter's 18.0% is the last verified figure.

ChipMOS's AI exposure is indirect. It assembles and tests commodity DRAM, NAND flash and display-driver chips, and does no high-bandwidth-memory packaging.

Bullish and bearish views on ChipMOS TECHNOLOGIES INC.

The bull case on ChipMOS TECHNOLOGIES INC. (IMOS), in brief: profit has caught up with revenue. The bear case: the shares broke the previous kill line.

Bull case

• Profit has caught up with revenue. Third-quarter net income of NT$1.323 billion rose 48.4% from the second quarter's NT$891.7 million, per Digitimes on 11 November 2026. The second quarter's net profit was against a NT$533.1 million loss a year earlier.
• October extended the record run. October revenue of NT$2,850.6 million was the highest monthly figure in the sequence of NT$2,785.7 million (August) and NT$2,792.0 million (September), per the company's Form 6-Ks. October was up 30.9% from a year earlier.
• Third-quarter revenue was a record. Revenue of NT$8,400.8 million (US$263.8 million) rose 13.8% from the second quarter and 36.7% from a year earlier, per the 8 October 2026 Form 6-K.
• Memory is the driver. On the 11 August 2026 call, management said second-quarter memory revenue rose more than 46% and DRAM revenue more than 70% year over year, with overall utilization at 72%.
• Capacity is being added against demand. The company's 11 November 2026 headline discloses an equipment purchase of NT$805.5 million. The 21 October 2026 Form 6-K showed NT$1.24 billion of machinery bought since March, and the October revenue release says capacity is going in against customer forecasts and long-term supply agreements.

Bear case

• The shares broke the previous kill line. They closed at $48.25 on 10 November 2026, below the $57.51 close of 26 October 2026. The fall from the $83.30 close of 2 October 2026 is 42.1%.
• The shares are under the 200-day average. The $52.16 200-day moving average (SwingTradeBot, 27 October 2026) now sits above the 10 November 2026 close. The RSI of 31.9 on that date is just above the 30 reading that usually marks heavy selling.
• Capital spending is heavy. Management projected on 11 August 2026 that 2026 spending would exceed 25% of revenue, against a long-term target below 20%. Two further equipment disclosures since 21 October 2026 add to the depreciation that gross margin must absorb.
• Monthly growth has slowed. October's 2.1% gain from September follows 0.2% in September and a 1.3% fall in August, per the company's Form 6-Ks. The year-over-year rate eased from 33.8% in September to 30.9% in October.
• Currency can move US-dollar figures. The company's October release converts at NT$32.59 per US dollar, against NT$31.85 at 30 June 2026. Results are reported in Taiwan dollars, so currency swings change the US-dollar figures with no change in the business.

Price setup

The shares closed at $48.25 on 10 November 2026, per adjusted daily closes. That is 42.1% below the 52-week high of $83.30 and 16.5% lower than three months earlier. The 14-day RSI was 31.9.

The decline from the 2 October 2026 high has now passed the $57.51 close of 26 October 2026. The 200-day moving average was $52.16 on 27 October 2026, per SwingTradeBot, and the shares closed under it on 10 November 2026. A close back above that average would show the selling has ended; no figure for it is stated beyond that date.

Crowding evidence is thin on the buying side. Interest has cooled since the October high, and the shares trade on the narrow lists of mid-cap technology movers only on days of sharp moves. ChipMOS is a foreign private issuer, so no US insider filings exist to read.

Catalysts ahead

• ~10 December 2026 (est.): November 2026 monthly revenue release. Shows whether fourth-quarter sales hold at or above October's NT$2,850.6 million after the record third quarter.
• ~February 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter 2026 results, date unconfirmed. Gives the next gross margin and utilization read against the second quarter's 18.0% and 72%.

What would change the view

A daily close above $65.14, the highest close of the last 20 sessions (15 October 2026), would show the shares leading the S&P 500 and prove this call wrong.

What it trades with

ChipMOS trades with Taiwan and US memory-chain names such as DRAM and NAND makers and other outsourced assembly and test providers. Its revenue follows memory contract prices and customer output plans, not AI accelerator demand. The Taiwan-listed shares (8150) trade under a 10% daily price limit; the US shares have none, so the US price can move further in a single session.