MMYT · MakeMyTrip Limited · Stock research

Current Thesis

MakeMyTrip is India's dominant online travel agency — MakeMyTrip, Goibibo, and redBus — and the mid-year recovery bounce that looked like momentum in early July has stalled. The stock bottomed at $32.67 over the trailing year, ran to roughly $58 by 2026-07-10 on HSBC's 2026-07-02 Buy/$70 initiation, then rolled back to $49.23 (2026-07-25 close, $48.87 after-hours). It now sits below both the 50-day (~$48.83) and the 200-day (~$52.27) after reclaiming that 200-day only weeks ago — a failed reclaim, not a fresh breakout.

The setup is a rolled-over recovery running straight into a binary print. FY2026 delivered record gross bookings of $10.4B, but reported net profit roughly halved, and consensus for the Q1 FY2027 report now dated 2026-08-03 (before market open) models EPS near $0.10 — down ~76% YoY — on revenue around $270.7M. At ~137x trailing earnings, the August 3 print decides the next leg, not the chart. This is a MATURING travel theme where a beaten-down leader has faded back into its base ahead of a coin-flip event. Standing aside into the print is the disciplined read.

Bullish and bearish views on MakeMyTrip Limited

The model's bull view on MakeMyTrip Limited (MMYT), in brief: Structural share leader, large runway. FY2026 gross bookings hit a record $10.4B, compounding ~34% annually over four years; MMYT is the default booking rail for India's digitizing middle class. Operating leverage is real when mix cooperates. FY2026 operating profit rose +30.1%… The bear view: Profit compresses while bookings grow. FY2026 net profit roughly halved despite record $10.4B bookings — a take-rate and margin story that directly tests the growth multiple. The recovery structure has broken. MMYT fell -6.9% on 2026-07-22 and closed 2026-07-25 below both the… Both cases follow in full.

Bull Case

• Structural share leader, large runway. FY2026 gross bookings hit a record $10.4B, compounding ~34% annually over four years; MMYT is the default booking rail for India's digitizing middle class.
• Operating leverage is real when mix cooperates. FY2026 operating profit rose +30.1% YoY, adjusted operating profit improved to $188.8M from $167.3M, and margin expanded to 1.82% of gross bookings.
• Higher-take-rate segments growing fast. FY2026 bus ticketing grew +21.7% and the "others" line +29.6%, diversifying away from thin-margin air.
• Sell-side still constructive into the print. A 10-analyst consensus rates Strong Buy with an average target of $71.90 (~46% above ~$49); HSBC initiated $70 on 2026-07-02 and J.P. Morgan raised its target from $60 to $65 (Buy) on 2026-07-14.
• Valuation reset already underway. Market cap is $4.67B, down ~60% from peak; the forward P/E of ~90 versus ~137 trailing shows the Street modelling an earnings ramp the August 3 print could begin to validate.

Bear Case

• Profit compresses while bookings grow. FY2026 net profit roughly halved despite record $10.4B bookings — a take-rate and margin story that directly tests the growth multiple.
• The recovery structure has broken. MMYT fell -6.9% on 2026-07-22 and closed 2026-07-25 below both the 50-day (~$48.83) and the 200-day (~$52.27), forfeiting the late-June $51.56–$54.12 shelf it had climbed above.
• Air ticketing is stalling. FY2026 air revenue slipped -0.7% on a reported basis (+3.3% constant currency), with management flagging macro and geopolitical drag on international travel.
• The multiple prices a recovery that hasn't printed. ~137x trailing earnings into an August 3 quarter where consensus expects EPS down ~76% YoY leaves no cushion for a soft number.
• Targets are being trimmed at the margin. UBS cut its target from $85 to $80 on 2026-07-09 and Citi from $80 to $70 on 2026-05-19; the dispersion is narrowing downward toward the ~$70 HSBC anchor, away from stale ~$106 aggregator figures.

Setup & Price Structure

Trailing-year range: $32.67 low to $104.43 high. Spot $49.23 (2026-07-25 close), $48.87 after-hours. The 50-day sits ~$48.83 and the 200-day ~$52.27, so price trades below both — a bearish configuration, softened only by a reclaimed 20-day on the very short term. The early-July push above the 200-day near $55 has fully reversed; the stock gave back roughly -16% from its ~$58 mid-July high, including the -6.9% session on 2026-07-22, and now rests on the 50-day with the $33–46 base beneath it. The June breakout shelf ($51.56–$54.12) is now overhead resistance rather than support. Market cap $4.67B, ~60% below the peak. This is retracement rolling back into a base, not new-high acceleration — the value-trap pattern the momentum playbook flags: an off-the-highs multiple sitting on rolled-over price structure.

Catalyst Calendar (next 30 days)

• Consensus expects EPS ~$0.10 (down ~76% YoY) on revenue ~$270.7M (+0.7% YoY). This is the binary that sets the next leg — a 15–25% gap either direction is plausible.
• ~mid-August: post-print target revisions. Expect the 10-analyst cluster to re-anchor around the print; watch whether the $70–72 consensus holds or trims further as UBS and Citi have already done.

Elapsed catalysts

• ~2026-07-29 onward: earnings blackout window. Three trading days ahead of the August 3 print; fresh entries into the binary are a gamble, not an edge. (passed 11d ago)

What Would Change Our Mind

• Downside confirmation: a weekly close below $46 loses the 50-day and the last recovery shelf, dropping the bounce back into the $33–46 base and confirming the theme has flipped from recovery to decelerating.
• Upside re-rate: a clean August 3 beat that stabilizes take-rate and air-ticketing, followed by a reclaim of the 200-day (~$52) on rising volume, would re-open the recovery leg and justify a fresh look at a clean higher-low retest — not before.
• Theme decay: continued air-ticketing deceleration or margin compression across the next two prints would move the read toward SATURATED, with no replacement thesis to carry the multiple.

Correlation Notes

• As an India-domiciled ADR, reported results carry INR/USD translation sensitivity; a weakening rupee pressures USD-reported revenue independent of local demand.
• Read-throughs run with global OTA peers (Booking, Expedia, Trip.com) and Indian aviation demand (IndiGo load factors) rather than US mega-cap tech; the tape is driven by India macro and the company's own print.
• institutional flow to note, not a conviction signal, and separate from HSBC's sell-side $70 initiation.
• Low beta to the US momentum complex; the August 3 event dominates near-term variance, making index-hedged exposure ineffective around the print.