SEER · Seer
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $1.91
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
17.8% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $1.91, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 22.7% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $1.91, the 200-day average of closes (11 November 2026), would show the shares leading the S&P 500 and prove this call wrong.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Health Care
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 10 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 4.0
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- −3.4
- Gross margin (%)
- 47.2
- Operating margin (%)
- −368.4
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- −46.4
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- 198
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- −7.8
- Free-cash-flow yield (%)
- −52.9
All filed numbers
What Seer reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 4.0 | −3.4 | 47.2 | −368.4 |
| first filed | 3.1 | −23.4 | 48.5 | −542.9 |
| first filed | 2.8 | −33.6 | 35.2 | −617.8 |
| first filed | 4.2 | +5.0 | 52.0 | −413.8 |
| first filed | 4.1 | +2.2 | 51.2 | −469.4 |
| first filed | 4.1 | +31.9 | 52.1 | −506.8 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | −13.7 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: −63.5 | −13.7 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) | Not reported |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | −45.3 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 1.0 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | −46.4 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 198 |
| Debt ($M) | None reported |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) no debt reported | 198 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) −0.8% on a year | 0.5 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | Not reported |
| Inventory ($M) | 6.4 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 213 |
| Market value ($M) | 87.6 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) no debt reported | −111 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) no debt reported | −7.8 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to book value (×) | 0.4 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | −52.9 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 0.2% of shares outstanding sold short, 1.0 days of average trading to cover, −13.1% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $15K |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $194K |
The thesis
Seer, Inc. closed at $1.61 on 10 November 2026, and the take-private case has weakened. Its board rejected both buyout proposals on 29 October 2026, and the third-quarter report on 10 November 2026 cut 2026 revenue guidance to $13.5-14.5 million from $16-18 million. The shares now rest on the company's cash and on whether the bidders or a patent win change the story.
The take-private narrative is close to dead at the board level: the Special Committee of independent directors, Meeta Gulyani and Nicolas Roelofs, said on 29 October 2026 that a sale "at this time would undervalue the company" and that Seer will stay independent. Stockholders are still pushing. Radoff-JEC, which owns about 7.7%, demanded an explanation on 2 November 2026, and stockholders published an open letter criticising the rejection on 3 November 2026.
The proposals were $2.55 in cash plus a contingent value right (CVR) from Bradley Radoff and Michael Torok, and $2.45 plus two CVRs from Chair and CEO Omid Farokhzad. Both were non-binding. Company news through 10 November 2026 shows no revised offer. The latest close is below the 28 October 2026 close of $1.99, the 18 September 2026 low close of $1.86 and every proposal price.
Bullish and bearish views on Seer, Inc.
The bull case on Seer, Inc. (SEER), in brief: cash is large against the market value. The bear case: guidance was cut.
Bull case
- Cash is large against the market value. Seer held $198.1 million of cash, cash equivalents and investments at 30 September 2026 (third-quarter release, 10 November 2026). MarketBeat put the market capitalisation at $119.33 million on 30 September 2026, when the shares traded higher than today.
- Buyback capacity remains. Management said on the 10 November 2026 call that about $25 million remained under its repurchase authorizations. Repurchases would retire shares at prices below the rejected offers.
- Activist holders remain engaged. Radoff-JEC reported about 7.7% on 2 November 2026, and Braden Leonard reported a 4.7% stake as of 2 November 2026. A renewed or raised proposal would reopen the premium case.
- A patent ruling is due. On 5 November 2026 Seer said the U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC) staff recommended an import ban on Nanomics' Proteonano products after Nanomics defaulted. The final ruling is expected by year-end.
- Losses are narrowing. Third-quarter net loss was $13.7 million against $18.2 million a year earlier (Seer release, 10 November 2026).
Bear case
- Guidance was cut. On 10 November 2026 Seer lowered 2026 revenue guidance to $13.5-14.5 million, against a $16.1 million analyst estimate cited by Benzinga. Third-quarter revenue was $3.981 million against a $4.150 million estimate.
- Cash keeps shrinking. Cash and investments fell from $209.5 million at 30 June 2026 to $198.1 million at 30 September 2026, and from $240.6 million at 31 December 2025. Nine-month operating cash use was $34.5 million.
- The board chose independence. The 29 October 2026 rejection followed a three-month review that included other possible counterparties. No buyer has emerged publicly at any price.
- The shares fell after the rejection. BioPharmaWatch recorded a 13.4% drop on the day of the announcement from a $1.94 baseline. The adjusted close is down 23.3% over three months.
- The finance chief left. David Horn departed as President and CFO on 1 October 2026, and Charles Endweiss serves as principal financial officer.
Price setup
The close of $1.61 on 10 November 2026 is 30.9% below the 52-week high of $2.33, and the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), a 0-to-100 gauge of recent buying pressure, is 21.6. That reading marks heavily oversold trading.
The 18 September 2026 low close of $1.86 no longer supports the shares. The nearest overhead references are the 28 October 2026 close of $1.99, the 15 October 2026 close of $2.04 and the 2 October 2026 close of $2.25. The company released results after the 10 November 2026 close, according to the announced 4:30 p.m. Eastern call time, so the $1.61 close may not reflect the guidance cut.
Crowding evidence is thin. Short interest was 87,329 shares at 15 September 2026 (MarketBeat), and no newer figure was found. The shares have about 54.98 million outstanding (25 July 2026), and single-session moves above 30% occurred in July.
Catalysts ahead
- Unscheduled: Schedule 13D amendment or revised proposal from Radoff-JEC or Farokhzad. A raised or binding offer would reopen the premium case; silence leaves the shares on cash value.
- ~31 December 2026 (est.): ITC final ruling on Nanomics' Proteonano products (expected by year-end). An import ban would strengthen Seer's patent position, though it does not change the revenue guidance.
Elapsed catalysts
- ~14 November 2026 (est.): Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 September 2026. Gives the full balance sheet and any disclosure on the rejected proposals and the Special Committee's work. (passed)
What would change the view
A daily close above $1.91, the 200-day average of closes (11 November 2026), would show the shares leading the S&P 500 and prove this call wrong.
What it trades with
Seer trades on a mix of deal news and small-cap life-science tool sentiment, so moves on bidder filings have mattered more than moves on sector data. Its revenue depends on research funding and instrument demand at academic and pharmaceutical customers. Comparable proteomics and life-science tool names are the closest peers; no cluster of related names is currently moving with it.
The evidence, claim by claim (7)
- Third-quarter 2026 revenue was $3.981 million against a $4.150 million estimate; net loss was $13.7 million versus $18.2 million a year earlier. Seer third-quarter 2026 results release; Benzinga · as of
- Full-year 2026 revenue guidance was lowered to $13.5-14.5 million from $16-18 million. Seer third-quarter 2026 results release · as of
- Cash, cash equivalents and investments were about $198.1 million at 30 September 2026, versus $209.5 million at 30 June 2026 and $240.6 million at 31 December 2025. Seer third-quarter 2026 results release · as of
- Nine-month net cash used in operating activities was about $34.5 million; about $25 million remained under share repurchase authorizations. Seer third-quarter 2026 release and earnings call · as of
- The Special Committee unanimously rejected the Radoff-JEC ($2.55 plus a CVR) and Farokhzad ($2.45 plus two CVRs) proposals and said Seer will remain independent. Seer press release via GlobeNewswire; BioPharmaWatch · as of
- ITC staff recommended an import ban on Nanomics' Proteonano products after Nanomics defaulted; a final ruling is expected by year-end. Seer press release · as of
- Radoff and Torok hold about 7.7% of Seer and Braden Leonard reported a 4.7% stake as of 2 November 2026. Company news and SEC ownership filings · as of
Sources
- BioPharmaWatch ·
- Seer Reports Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results and Updates Full Year 2026 Revenue Guidance · investor.seer.bio
- Seer Reports Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results and Updates Full Year 2026 Revenue Guidance · globenewswire.com ·
- Seer Inc (SEER) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript · fool.com ·
- BioPharmaWatch
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