SFIX · Stitch Fix
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $3.42
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
17.0% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $3.42, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 14.7% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $3.42, over the 200-day average of closes, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500. First-quarter fiscal 2027 revenue above the $328 million top of guidance with active clients above 2.277 million would also show that.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Consumer Discretionary
Quarter to 1 August 2026, filed 24 September 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 324
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +4.2
- Gross margin (%)
- 43.6
- Operating margin (%)
- −1.3
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 19.8
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- 173
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 0.2
- Free-cash-flow yield (%)
- 5.2
All filed numbers
What Stitch Fix reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 324 | +4.2 | 43.6 | −1.3 |
| first filed | 340 | +4.7 | 43.7 | −1.2 |
| first filed | 341 | +9.4 | 43.6 | −1.4 |
| first filed | 342 | +7.3 | 43.6 | −2.5 |
| first filed | 311 | −2.6 | 43.6 | −3.6 |
| first filed | 325 | +0.7 | 44.2 | −3.0 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | −1.9 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: −12.6 | −2.1 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) quarter to 2 May 2026, filed 11 June 2026; against the quarter to 3 May 2025 | +4.3 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 39.1 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 19.2 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 19.8 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 173 |
| Debt ($M) | None reported |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) no debt reported | 173 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) −20.4% on a year | 6.9 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | Not reported |
| Inventory ($M) | 123 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 196 |
| Market value ($M) at the 13 November 2026 close, filed figures to 11 June 2026 | 384 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) no debt reported | 212 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) no debt reported | 0.2 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to book value (×) | 2.0 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 5.2 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 11.0% of shares outstanding sold short, 4.6 days of average trading to cover, +2.2% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $0 |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $6.6M |
The thesis
Stitch Fix's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. Active clients fell to 2.277 million at 1 August 2026, and fiscal 2027 revenue guidance of $1.310 billion to $1.360 billion brackets fiscal 2026 revenue of $1.348 billion. The first-quarter fiscal 2027 report, expected in early December, shows whether the client count stops shrinking.
The shares closed at $2.82 on 12 November 2026, after $2.89 on 11 November 2026 and $2.74 on 6 November 2026. They sit 51.0% below the 52-week intraday high of $5.75 on 13 January 2026 and are down 21.4% over three months. The 52-week closing low is $2.15, set on 25 September 2026, two days after the fourth-quarter report.
The only company items since the Mizuho rating change on 29 September 2026 are routine. Stitch Fix announced an inducement grant of performance stock units to Chief Product and Technology Officer Sree Sreedhararaj on 26 October 2026. SEC Form 4 filings dated 22 October 2026 show share awards on 20 October 2026 to Chief Executive Officer Matt Baer (1,064,815 shares), Chief Financial Officer David Aufderhaar (462,963 shares) and Chief Legal Officer Casey O'Connor (266,667 shares). These are grants, not open-market purchases.
Bullish and bearish views on Stitch Fix, Inc.
The bull case on Stitch Fix, Inc. (SFIX), in brief: spending per client keeps rising. The bear case: the customer test failed.
Bull case
- Spending per client keeps rising. Net revenue per active client was $592 for the quarter ended 1 August 2026, up 7.8% from a year earlier. If the client count steadies, that gain supports revenue growth (company results, 23 September 2026).
- Balance sheet carries no debt. Stitch Fix reported $220.9 million of cash, cash equivalents and investments and no debt on 23 September 2026. Fiscal 2026 free cash flow was $19.8 million (company results release).
- Buyback authorization has room. Zacks reported that Stitch Fix repurchased 7.2 million shares for $26.4 million in fiscal 2026 and has $93.6 million left under its authorization.
- First-quarter profit guidance is positive. Management guided first-quarter fiscal 2027 adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, adjusted) to $3 million to $6 million (MarketBeat call summary, 23 September 2026).
Bear case
- The customer test failed. Active clients fell 1.4% from the previous quarter to 2.277 million at 1 August 2026, reversing the prior quarter's level of 2.309 million (company results, 23 September 2026).
- Guidance implies flat sales. Fiscal 2027 revenue guidance of $1.310 billion to $1.360 billion compares with fiscal 2026 revenue of $1.348 billion. First-quarter guidance is $323 million to $328 million. Management cited a tougher consumer environment and a lower client starting point (company results, 23 September 2026).
- Analyst targets sit near the price. On 24 September 2026 UBS cut its target to $3.50 from $4 and kept Neutral. Telsey Advisory Group cut its target to $3 from $5 and kept Market Perform. Mizuho's $2.50 target, set 29 September 2026 when it upgraded to Neutral from Underperform, is below the 12 November 2026 close of $2.82.
- Customer growth is pushed out. Mizuho said active-customer growth is delayed beyond fiscal 2027 (MarketBeat, 29 September 2026).
Price setup
The shares closed at $2.82 on 12 November 2026. That is above the 50-day average of $2.73 and well below the 200-day average of $3.41, both measured on adjusted closes at that date. The 52-week closing low of $2.15 on 25 September 2026 is the nearest reference below.
Closes since 5 November 2026 ran between $2.74 and $2.93, with $2.93 on 9 November 2026. Mizuho's $2.50 target, UBS's $3.50 target and Telsey's $3 target all fall within a narrow band around the price, so the shares trade near where analysts value them. The first-quarter fiscal 2027 results date has not been announced; Stitch Fix announced the prior year's date on 13 November 2025 for a report on 4 December 2025.
Catalysts ahead
- ~4 December 2026 (est.): First-quarter fiscal 2027 results. Shows whether active clients stay above 2.277 million and revenue lands inside the $323 million to $328 million guidance.
What would change the view
A daily close above $3.42, over the 200-day average of closes, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500. First-quarter fiscal 2027 revenue above the $328 million top of guidance with active clients above 2.277 million would also show that.
What it trades with
Stitch Fix trades with small-cap apparel and online retail names, and it responds to consumer-spending data more than to technology sentiment. Its price moves since 23 September 2026 followed its own results and analyst actions. No peer filing or data point since 22 October 2026 alters that.
The evidence, claim by claim (7)
- Fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 revenue was $324.4 million, up 4.2% from a year earlier; net revenue per active client was $592, up 7.8%. Stitch Fix fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 results release · as of
- Active clients were 2.277 million at 1 August 2026, down 1.4% from 2.309 million in the preceding quarter. Stitch Fix fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 results release · as of
- Fiscal 2027 revenue guidance is $1.310 billion to $1.360 billion; first-quarter fiscal 2027 guidance is $323 million to $328 million revenue and $3 million to $6 million adjusted EBITDA. Stitch Fix results release and MarketBeat call summary · as of
- Cash, cash equivalents and investments were $220.9 million with no debt; fiscal 2026 free cash flow was $19.8 million. Stitch Fix fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 results release · as of
- Mizuho upgraded Stitch Fix to Neutral from Underperform and cut its price target to $2.50 from $3. Benzinga, MarketBeat · as of
- Form 4 filings show share awards on 20 October 2026 to the CEO (1,064,815 shares), CFO (462,963 shares) and Chief Legal Officer (266,667 shares). SEC Form 4 filings · as of
- Stitch Fix announced an inducement grant of performance stock units to Chief Product and Technology Officer Sree Sreedhararaj. Company announcement via fiscal.ai · as of
Sources
- MarketBeat ·
- Zacks
- Stitch Fix Announces Date for First Quarter 2026 Financial Results and Conference Call · secure.businesswire.com ·
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