EPC · Edgewell Personal Care
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $31.77
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
14.1% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $31.77, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 2.3% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $31.77, over the 52-week high of $30.36 and the rejected $30 bid, would show the shares leading the S&P 500. A revised takeover proposal above $30 per share, or organic sales growth above 3.0% in the first fiscal 2027 quarter, would point the same way.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Consumer Staples
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 13 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 484
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +3.0
- Gross margin (%)
- 43.3
- Operating margin (%)
- 3.5
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- −10.0
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- −913
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 1.1
- Enterprise value to operating income (×)
- 52.4
All filed numbers
What Edgewell Personal Care reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 484 | +3.0 | 43.3 | 3.5 |
| first filed | 570 | +1.7 | 42.5 | 4.4 |
| first filed | 520 | +0.6 | 41.8 | 3.5 |
| first filed | 423 | +1.9 | 38.1 | −4.5 |
| first filed restated | 470 | +100.8 | 40.1 | 1.5 |
| first filed restated | 560 | −13.5 | 44.6 | 8.0 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 10.2 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: −51.7 | 10.9 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) quarter to 30 June 2026, filed 5 August 2026; against the quarter to 30 June 2025 | −0.9 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 49.6 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 59.6 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | −10.0 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 376 |
| Debt ($M) long-term debt plus short-term bank loans | 1,289 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | −913 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) | Not reported |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 132 |
| Inventory ($M) | 445 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 1,472 |
| Market value ($M) | 1,257 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 2,171 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 1.1 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | 52.4 |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to book value (×) | 0.9 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | −0.8 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 10.1% of shares outstanding sold short, 9.7 days of average trading to cover, −1.2% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $0 |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $6K |
The thesis
Edgewell Personal Care's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 than lead it over the next three months. The fiscal fourth-quarter report on 12 November 2026 beat estimates, but the fiscal 2027 outlook landed on analyst estimates, and the shares trade just under a $30-per-share takeover approach that the board rejected as too low. The first fiscal 2027 quarterly report, expected around February 2027, settles the call: it shows whether organic sales growth reaches the guided 1.0% to 3.0% range and whether a second bid has appeared.
The shares closed at $28.74 on 12 November 2026, down from $29.15 on 11 November 2026 and 5.3% below the 52-week intraday high of $30.36 set on 5 November 2026. The 50-day average is $27.84 and the 200-day average is $24.17. The three-month price change is 1.7%.
Edgewell reported fiscal fourth-quarter adjusted earnings per share of $0.78 against a $0.77 estimate, and net sales of $484.1 million against a $479.8 million estimate, per news reports on the results dated 12 November 2026. For fiscal 2027 it guided adjusted earnings per share to $1.85–$2.15 against a $2.00 estimate, and net sales to $2.004–$2.044 billion against a $2.021 billion estimate.
Bloomberg reported on 22 June 2026 that the board rejected an unsolicited $30 proposal from Yellow Wood Partners. Company news through 12 November 2026 lists no revised proposal, announced sale review or competing bidder.
Bullish and bearish views on Edgewell Personal Care Company
The bull case on Edgewell Personal Care Company (EPC), in brief: fourth-quarter growth accelerated. The bear case: the fiscal 2027 guide matches estimates.
Bull case
- Fourth-quarter growth accelerated. Net sales rose 3.0% to $484.1 million and organic sales rose 3.1% in the quarter ended 30 September 2026, per the company's 12 November 2026 release. Adjusted earnings per share were $0.78 against $0.52 a year earlier.
- Shaving profit turned up. Fourth-quarter Wet Shave segment profit rose 10.8% to $58.7 million on sales of $325.8 million, with organic growth of 1.6%, per the 12 November 2026 release.
- Sun and Skin Care is the growth engine. Fourth-quarter segment sales were $158.3 million with organic growth of 6.5% and segment profit of $19.7 million, per the 12 November 2026 release.
- Leverage is down to 3.4 times. Adjusted net debt leverage was 3.4 times at 30 September 2026, with net debt of $908.7 million and cash of $375.6 million, per the 12 November 2026 release.
- A sponsor has shown interest. Yellow Wood proposed $30 per share, which the board rejected as too low, per Bloomberg on 22 June 2026. A rejection on price leaves room for a higher offer.
Bear case
- The fiscal 2027 guide matches estimates. Adjusted EPS of $1.85–$2.15 brackets the $2.00 estimate cited in news coverage on 12 November 2026, and net sales guidance of $2.004–$2.044 billion brackets the $2.021 billion estimate. The report gave the market no upside surprise to price.
- Full-year Wet Shave profit still fell. Segment profit was $164.7 million for fiscal 2026, down 13.5%, per the 12 November 2026 release. One strong quarter has not reversed the year.
- Full-year organic growth was thin. Fiscal 2026 net sales were $1,996.5 million, up 1.8%, but organic sales rose only 0.3%, per the 12 November 2026 release. The fiscal 2027 guide of 1.0% to 3.0% asks for a step up.
- Reported earnings sit far below adjusted. Fiscal 2026 GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) EPS was a $0.05 loss against $1.93 adjusted. Fiscal 2027 GAAP EPS guidance of $0.90–$1.20 compares with a $1.96 estimate in news coverage on 12 November 2026, and the company expects about $55 million of restructuring.
- The takeover premium has no confirmation. No revised approach has surfaced since 22 June 2026, per company news through 12 November 2026.
Price setup
The shares closed at $28.74 on 12 November 2026, after closing at $29.61 on 10 November 2026, the highest close in the recent run. The 52-week intraday high of $30.36 was set on 5 November 2026, when the close was $28.56. The 52-week closing low was $15.91 on 8 December 2025.
The close sits above the 50-day average of $27.84 and the 200-day average of $24.17. The shares fell 1.4% on the day of the results, from $29.15 to $28.74.
Form 4 filings dated 12 November 2026 show four executives, including Chief Executive Officer Rod Little, exercised options on 9 November 2026 and had shares withheld for tax at $29.53. The filings list no open-market sales.
A Schedule 13G dated to 31 January 2026 showed 46,716,605 shares outstanding and three passive holders each disclosing 8.5% or more, so the free float is narrow.
What the price reflects: at $28.74 the market values the shares below the rejected $30 proposal while fiscal 2027 adjusted EPS guidance sits on the $2.00 estimate, so the price already credits both the operating recovery and some chance of a bid.
Catalysts ahead
- ~4 February 2027 (est.): First fiscal 2027 quarterly report (quarter ending 31 December 2026). Shows whether organic sales growth is heading into the guided 1.0% to 3.0% range, whether Wet Shave profit holds its fourth-quarter gain, and whether a second takeover approach has surfaced.
What would change the view
A daily close above $31.77, over the 52-week high of $30.36 and the rejected $30 bid, would show the shares leading the S&P 500. A revised takeover proposal above $30 per share, or organic sales growth above 3.0% in the first fiscal 2027 quarter, would point the same way.
What it trades with
Edgewell trades on two drivers: its own consumer-products results and the odds of a takeover. The 22 June 2026 Bloomberg report on the rejected approach moved the shares sharply, and the bid has supported the price since. Shaving, sun care and skin care peers report on calendar-quarter schedules, so Edgewell's September fiscal year-end places its report about a month after theirs.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Fiscal fourth-quarter net sales were $484.1 million, up 3.0%; organic sales rose 3.1%; adjusted EPS was $0.78 against $0.52 a year earlier; GAAP EPS was $0.23. Edgewell fiscal fourth-quarter 2026 release (8-K exhibit 99.1) · as of
- Fiscal fourth-quarter Wet Shave sales were $325.8 million (organic +1.6%) with segment profit up 10.8% to $58.7 million; Sun and Skin Care sales were $158.3 million (organic +6.5%) with segment profit of $19.7 million. Edgewell fiscal fourth-quarter 2026 release (8-K exhibit 99.1) · as of
- Fiscal 2026 net sales were $1,996.5 million, up 1.8% (organic +0.3%); adjusted EPS was $1.93; adjusted EBITDA was $254.5 million; Wet Shave segment profit fell 13.5% to $164.7 million. Edgewell fiscal fourth-quarter 2026 release (8-K exhibit 99.1) · as of
- Fiscal 2027 outlook: organic net sales +1.0% to +3.0%, adjusted EPS $1.85–$2.15, GAAP EPS $0.90–$1.20, adjusted EBITDA $250–$270 million, adjusted free cash flow about $100–$120 million, restructuring about $55 million. Edgewell fiscal fourth-quarter 2026 release (8-K exhibit 99.1) · as of
- Adjusted net debt leverage was 3.4 times at 30 September 2026, with net debt of $908.7 million and cash of $375.6 million. Edgewell fiscal fourth-quarter 2026 release (8-K exhibit 99.1) · as of
- Fiscal 2027 adjusted EPS guidance of $1.85–$2.15 compared with a $2.00 estimate, and net sales guidance of $2.004–$2.044 billion with a $2.021 billion estimate. News report on Edgewell fiscal 2027 outlook, 12 November 2026 · as of
- Edgewell's board rejected an unsolicited $30-per-share proposal from Yellow Wood Partners as too low. Bloomberg, 22 June 2026 · as of
- Four executives, including CEO Rod Little, exercised options on 9 November 2026 and had shares withheld for tax at $29.53; no open-market sales were reported. SEC Form 4 filings dated 12 November 2026 · as of
Sources
- SEC EDGAR
- Schick Razor Maker Is Said to Reject Unsolicited Takeover Offer · news.bloomberglaw.com
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