NRIX · Nurix Therapeutics
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $20.15
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
23.2% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $20.15, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 43.0% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $20.15, just over the 200-day average of closes, which would erase most of the Sanofi-related drop and show the shares leading the S&P 500 again.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Catalyst
Key figures from the filings · Health Care
Quarter to 31 August 2026, filed 13 October 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 673
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +8426.3
- Operating margin (%)
- 83.1
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 370
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- 1,100
- Price to earnings (×)
- 5.7
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 0.8
- Enterprise value to operating income (×)
- 2.0
All filed numbers
What Nurix Therapeutics reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 673 | +8426.3 | 83.1 |
| first filed | 9.0 | −79.5 | −1041.7 |
| first filed | 6.3 | −66.1 | −1479.4 |
| first filed | 13.6 | +2.2 | −612.0 |
| first filed | 7.9 | −37.3 | −1157.7 |
| first filed | 44.1 | +264.3 | −109.7 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 563 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 295 | 550 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 31 August 2025 | +38.0 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 379 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 9.5 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 370 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 1,100 |
| Debt ($M) | None reported |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) no debt reported | 1,100 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) −52.9% on a year | 19.4 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 20.0 |
| Inventory ($M) | Not reported |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 968 |
| Market value ($M) | 1,691 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) no debt reported | 591 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) no debt reported | 0.8 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) no debt reported | 2.0 |
| Price to earnings (×) | 5.7 |
| Price to book value (×) | 1.7 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 21.9 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 18.9% of shares outstanding sold short, 9.2 days of average trading to cover, +16.7% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $1.7M |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $5.8M |
The thesis
Nurix Therapeutics is more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. Sanofi's 3 November 2026 termination of its STAT6 program removed a second source of upside, and the shares closed at $15.60 on 12 November 2026, down 42.3% in three months (adjusted daily closes). The bexobrutideg poster at the American Society of Hematology (ASH) meeting on 13 December 2026 is the event that can reprice the one asset that carries the equity.
Bexobrutideg is an oral BTK degrader for chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL), partnered with Roche. Sanofi's decision did not touch it, and the company says its cash runway of $1.1 billion into the second half of 2029 (as of 31 August 2026) is unchanged. The shares have not recovered since: they closed between $14.84 and $16.33 in every session from 5 November to 12 November 2026.
Bullish and bearish views on Nurix Therapeutics, Inc.
The bull case on Nurix Therapeutics, Inc. (NRIX), in brief: cash funds the pivotal program. The bear case: Sanofi ended a partnered program.
Bull case
- Cash funds the pivotal program. Nurix held $1.1 billion of cash, equivalents and marketable securities at 31 August 2026, after Roche's upfront payment, and says it funds operations into the second half of 2029 (8-K, 12 October 2026). The company said on 3 November 2026 that the Sanofi termination leaves the runway unchanged.
- The lead asset is unaffected by Sanofi. The terminated program, SAR448272, is an oral STAT6 degrader in a Phase 1 trial. Bexobrutideg is in the randomized Phase 3 DAYBreak CLL-306 trial against pirtobrutinib, and the company is also running a pivotal single-arm DAYBreak study.
- New data is scheduled. Nurix said on 5 November 2026 that ASH released an abstract with new and updated bexobrutideg data in relapsed or refractory CLL and small lymphocytic lymphoma. The poster is listed for 13 December 2026, 6:00 to 8:00 PM, in Hall F in New Orleans.
- Earlier data showed durable responses. Nurix reported at ASH 2025 an objective response rate of 83.0% and median progression-free survival of 22.1 months across all doses in the Phase 1a cohort (company data as reported by rallies.ai).
- Brokers still carry high targets. HC Wainwright raised its target to $36 on 16 October 2026 (Benzinga). Wells Fargo's lower target on 4 November 2026 is covered under the bear case.
- Clinical leadership was added. Nurix announced on 11 November 2026 that it appointed Arati V. Rao, M.D., as Chief Medical Officer (company news).
Bear case
- Sanofi ended a partnered program. Nurix said on 3 November 2026 that Sanofi notified it of the decision to discontinue the SAR448272 trial and terminate the program. Nurix expects no further milestones or royalties from it. RTTNews reported the shares down 39.72% at $15.56 on 4 November 2026.
- A broker cut its target. Wells Fargo kept Equal-Weight and lowered its target to $20 on 4 November 2026 (Benzinga). That is well under the $36 target HC Wainwright set on 16 October 2026.
- The ASH abstract did not lift the shares. The abstract was released on 5 November 2026, when the shares closed at $14.84. They closed at $15.60 on 12 November 2026.
- Executives sold into the October rally. SEC Form 4 filings show the Chief Financial Officer sold 2,834 shares at $26.28 on 30 October 2026. The Chief Legal Officer sold 16,715 shares at an average of $25.84 on 2 November to 3 November 2026, and the Chief Scientific Officer sold 5,409 shares at an average of $26.42 on 30 October to 2 November 2026. A director sold 22,583 shares at $23.40 on 14 October 2026. On 4 November 2026 the Chief Financial Officer sold a further 4,769 shares at an average of $15.63 under a Rule 10b5-1 plan.
- Recurring revenue is small. Collaboration revenue was $19.9 million in the quarter ended 31 August 2026, against total revenue of $673.1 million that included $653.2 million of one-time Roche license revenue (8-K, 12 October 2026).
- One asset carries the equity. Value concentrates in bexobrutideg in CLL, where BeOne Medicines' BGB-16673 is a competing BTK degrader.
Price setup
The shares closed at $15.60 on 12 November 2026. That is 44.7% below the 52-week intraday high of $28.23 set on 19 August 2026, and well below the $27.05 close of 14 August 2026. The 52-week closing low is $12.17 on 12 November 2025.
The 50-day average of closes is $23.46 and the 200-day average is $20.14, both as of 12 November 2026 (adjusted daily closes). The last close sits below both, so the October rally has fully reversed. The recent range of closes, $14.84 on 5 November 2026 to $16.33 on 11 November 2026, is the nearest price reference.
The market has priced in the loss of the Sanofi program and little else: the shares fell back to the level of mid-2026 while the Roche deal and the cash runway were left untouched.
Catalysts ahead
- 13 December 2026: Bexobrutideg poster in relapsed/refractory CLL/SLL at the 68th ASH annual meeting, New Orleans (meeting runs 12 December to 15 December 2026). The full presentation carries the response, durability and safety numbers that can reprice bexobrutideg against competing BTK degraders.
- ~27 January 2027 (est.): Fiscal fourth-quarter 2026 report for the quarter ending 30 November 2026. First quarter without Roche one-time revenue; shows recurring collaboration revenue and cash at 30 November 2026.
What would change the view
A daily close above $20.15, just over the 200-day average of closes, which would erase most of the Sanofi-related drop and show the shares leading the S&P 500 again.
What it trades with
Nurix trades with small and mid-cap clinical-stage oncology and immunology biotech, a group that moves with biotech funding conditions and rate expectations. Its partner economics link it to Roche, Sanofi, Pfizer and Gilead. The Sanofi news was specific to Nurix, and Sanofi shares rose 4.29% on 4 November 2026 (RTTNews). Within targeted protein degradation, the closest read-across is BeOne's BGB-16673 in relapsed CLL.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Sanofi notified Nurix it is discontinuing the Phase 1 trial of oral STAT6 degrader SAR448272 and terminating the program; Nurix expects no further milestones or royalties from it and says its cash runway is unchanged. Nurix press release, 3 November 2026 · as of
- Nurix shares traded at $15.56, down 39.72%, on the day after the Sanofi announcement. RTTNews, 4 November 2026 · as of
- Wells Fargo maintained Equal-Weight on Nurix and lowered its price target to $20. Benzinga, 4 November 2026 · as of
- ASH released an abstract with new and updated bexobrutideg data in relapsed or refractory CLL/SLL; poster listed for 13 December 2026, 6:00 to 8:00 PM, Hall F, at the 68th ASH meeting in New Orleans. Nurix press release, 5 November 2026 · as of
- Cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities were $1.1 billion at 31 August 2026, with runway into the second half of 2029. Nurix 8-K press release, 12 October 2026 · as of
- Fiscal third-quarter 2026 revenue was $673.1 million, including $653.2 million of Roche license revenue and $19.9 million of collaboration revenue. Nurix 8-K press release, 12 October 2026 · as of
- Chief Financial Officer Hans van Houte sold 4,769 shares at an average of $15.63 on 4 November 2026 under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. SEC Form 4 filed 4 November 2026 · as of
- Nurix appointed Arati V. Rao, M.D., as Chief Medical Officer. Nurix company news, 11 November 2026 · as of
Sources
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