RRC · Range Resources
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $56.38
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
8.1% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $56.38, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are up 32.0% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $56.38, the closing high of 27 October 2026 after the deal announcement, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500; a rival bid for Range above EQT's 0.987-share terms would also prove the call wrong.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Energy
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 27 October 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 843
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +12.6
- Gross margin (%)
- 94.3
- Operating margin (%)
- 26.6
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- −781
- Price to earnings (×)
- 13.6
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 3.7
- Enterprise value to operating income (×)
- 11.3
All filed numbers
What Range Resources reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 843 | +12.6 | 94.3 | 26.6 |
| first filed | 834 | −2.7 | 92.9 | 29.8 |
| first filed | 1,034 | +49.8 | 94.4 | 41.9 |
| first filed | 820 | +30.9 | 94.7 | 28.8 |
| first filed | 749 | +21.7 | 93.5 | 24.5 |
| first filed | 856 | +61.5 | 95.9 | 35.3 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | Not reported |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 891 | 175 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | −1.7 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 1,419 |
| Capital spending ($M) | Not reported |
| Free cash flow ($M) | Not available |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 0.0 |
| Debt ($M) long-term debt | 781 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | −781 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) | Not reported |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 302 |
| Inventory ($M) | Not reported |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 4,872 |
| Market value ($M) | 12,112 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 12,893 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 3.7 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | 11.3 |
| Price to earnings (×) | 13.6 |
| Price to book value (×) | 2.5 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | Not available |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 11.2% of shares outstanding sold short, 10.1 days of average trading to cover, +0.3% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $0 |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $4.2M |
The thesis
Range Resources is more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months than to lead it. Its shares now trade as a stand-in for EQT stock under EQT's all-stock takeover. The premium is already in the price, so EQT's share price, natural gas prices and the two shareholder votes before a first-quarter 2027 closing decide the result.
Under the merger agreement announced on 26 October 2026, each Range share becomes 0.987 EQT shares at closing (EQT 8-K, 26 October 2026). TIKR put the value of the terms at about $54.91 per Range share at announcement. Range closed at $51.86 on 11 November 2026, below that figure, because EQT shares have not recovered the roughly 8% they lost on announcement day, as TIKR reported.
The only new analyst action since the 27 October 2026 results is Truist's. It kept a Hold rating and raised its target to $51 on 2 November 2026, below the 11 November 2026 close. The Form S-4 registration statement that sets the shareholder vote dates had not appeared in public sources by 12 November 2026. The rating is Low because the takeover terms cap the upside, and a lead over the index would need a rival bid or a sharp rise in EQT that no dated evidence points to.
Bullish and bearish views on Range Resources Corp
The bull case on Range Resources Corp (RRC), in brief: EQT has a costly reason to close. The bear case: the premium has been paid.
Bull case
- EQT has a costly reason to close. EQT owes Range a $1.148 billion termination fee in specified cases, against $423 million Range would owe EQT (Range 8-K, 26 October 2026). That gap ties EQT to completing the deal.
- The deal value rises with EQT. Each Range share converts into 0.987 EQT shares (EQT 8-K, 26 October 2026). A recovery in EQT shares after their roughly 8% fall on 26 October 2026, per TIKR, would lift Range with it.
- The synergy targets are large. EQT guides to $325 million of base annual synergies within two years of closing, with a path to more than $600 million (EQT 8-K, 26 October 2026).
- The last standalone quarter was strong. Range's 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 September 2026, filed 27 October 2026, shows revenue of $842.83 million against $748.53 million a year earlier. Adjusted earnings per share of $0.81 beat the $0.77 estimate, per Benzinga on 27 October 2026.
- One analyst sees value above the terms. Mizuho kept an Outperform rating and raised its target to $67 on 27 October 2026, per Benzinga.
Bear case
- The premium has been paid. RTTNews put Range's close before the announcement at $45.52; the shares jumped about 15% on 26 October 2026, per Benzinga. Truist's $51 target of 2 November 2026 sits below the 11 November 2026 close of $51.86.
- Standalone value is lower. The pre-deal close of $45.52 reported by RTTNews marks roughly where a broken deal would point the shares. The termination fee Range would owe is $423 million (Range 8-K, 26 October 2026).
- EQT holders must approve the share issue. The issuance needs a majority of votes cast at an EQT meeting (Range 8-K, 26 October 2026). EQT's roughly 8% drop on announcement day, per TIKR, shows that approval is not assured.
- Closing can run long. The agreement's end date is 25 October 2027, extendable to 25 April 2028 if only antitrust clearance or an injunction is outstanding (Range 8-K, 26 October 2026). Hart-Scott-Rodino (HSR) antitrust clearance and an effective Form S-4 are both conditions.
- A fairness challenge is open. Law firm Halper Sadeh LLC announced an investigation on 30 October 2026 into whether the sale to EQT is fair to Range shareholders. Such claims can delay a shareholder vote.
- Gas prices drive both stocks. The combined company would produce more than 9 billion cubic feet equivalent per day (Bcfe/d) (EQT 8-K, 26 October 2026). A weak winter gas price would hit EQT and Range together.
Price setup
Range closed at $51.86 on 11 November 2026, 8.9% under the 52-week intraday high of $56.90 set on 28 October 2026. Since the announcement the shares have held a range of $48.72 (close on 6 November 2026) to $52.10 (close on 4 November 2026) in November, according to daily closes. The 52-week closing low was $33.43 on 14 January 2026.
Adjusted daily closes put the shares up 30.3% over three months, with the 50-day moving average at $43.76 and the 200-day at $40.91 as of 11 November 2026. Nearly all of that gain is the takeover jump of 26 October 2026. From here the price tracks 0.987 times EQT's share price, less a discount for deal risk and time to closing, more than any Range-specific chart level.
Catalysts ahead
- ~19 November 2026 (est.): Weekly U.S. Energy Information Administration natural gas storage report. Early-winter storage changes drive Henry Hub prices, which move EQT shares and therefore Range through the 0.987 exchange ratio.
- ~15 December 2026 (est.): EQT Form S-4 with joint proxy statement and prospectus filed with the SEC. It sets the timing of the Range and EQT shareholder votes the deal needs, and discloses the deal background and any other bidders' approaches.
- ~15 December 2026 (est.): Hart-Scott-Rodino antitrust filings and waiting period. Clearance is a closing condition; a second request from regulators would push closing past the first-quarter 2027 target.
- ~31 March 2027 (est.): Closing of the EQT–Range merger (company target: first quarter of 2027). Closing turns Range shares into EQT stock; a delay or failure would leave Range valued on its own, nearer its pre-deal close of $45.52.
What would change the view
A daily close above $56.38, the closing high of 27 October 2026 after the deal announcement, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500; a rival bid for Range above EQT's 0.987-share terms would also prove the call wrong.
What it trades with
Range now moves with EQT at the 0.987 exchange ratio, so the two shares carry nearly the same risk. Both track Henry Hub natural gas futures and Appalachian price differentials. The gap between Range's price and 0.987 times EQT's price measures how much risk the market assigns to the votes, antitrust review and the litigation; a widening gap would signal rising doubt about closing.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- EQT agreed to acquire Range Resources in an all-stock deal at 0.987 EQT shares per Range share; Range holders would own about 27% of the combined company. EQT Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1 · as of
- The deal terms valued Range at about $54.91 per share, a 20.6% premium to the prior Friday close; EQT shares fell about 8% on the announcement. TIKR / RTTNews coverage of the announcement · as of
- Termination fees are $423 million payable by Range and $1.148 billion payable by EQT; the end date is 25 October 2027, extendable to 25 April 2028. Range Resources Form 8-K · as of
- EQT guides to $325 million of base annual synergies within two years, with a path to more than $600 million, and expects closing in the first quarter of 2027. EQT Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1 · as of
- Range quarterly revenue was $842.83 million for the quarter ended 30 September 2026, against $748.53 million a year earlier; adjusted EPS of $0.81 beat a $0.77 estimate. Range Q3 2026 Form 10-Q and results release · as of
- Mizuho kept an Outperform rating on Range and raised its price target to $67. Mizuho note via Benzinga · as of
- Truist Securities kept a Hold rating on Range and raised its price target to $51. Truist note via Benzinga · as of
- Law firm Halper Sadeh LLC opened an investigation into whether the sale of Range to EQT is fair to Range shareholders. Halper Sadeh release via fiscal.ai · as of
Sources
- Range Resources agrees to all-stock merger with EQT · stocktitan.net
- A $1.15B breakup fee could apply to EQT (EQT) in its agreed Range Resources merger. · stocktitan.net
- RANGE RESOURCES CORP - Form 425 - FY2026 · sec.gov
- EQT, Range combine to create largest U.S. natural gas producer · worldoil.com ·
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