PK · Park Hotels & Resorts
Conviction · Medium · more likely to lead the S&P 500 over the next three months, by a modest margin
Wrong if: a weekly close below $15.32
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
5.5% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
The red mark is the price level of the published kill line: a close through it (a weekly close, on a weekly line) would prove the research note wrong on price. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026; a dot left of the mark has closed through its line.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a weekly close below $15.32, on record since 10 November 2026; only a weekly close settles it. The shares are up 9.6% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A weekly close below $15.32, which sits under the 50-day average and would erase the recovery from the post-report low. Fourth-quarter comparable RevPAR growth below the 5.5% low end of guidance, or 2027 adjusted FFO guidance below $2.00 per share, would also break the case.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Catalyst
Key figures from the filings · Consumer Discretionary
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 5 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 602
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- −1.3
- Operating margin (%)
- 6.3
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 108
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- −3,660
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 2.7
- Enterprise value to operating income (×)
- 223.5
- Free-cash-flow yield (%)
- 3.3
All filed numbers
What Park Hotels & Resorts reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 602 | −1.3 | 6.3 |
| first filed | 680 | +1.2 | 14.0 |
| first filed | 622 | −1.3 | 10.0 |
| first filed | 629 | +0.6 | −26.1 |
| first filed | 610 | −6.0 | 9.7 |
| first filed | 672 | −2.0 | 9.7 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | −16.0 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: −165 | −18.0 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +0.5 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 420 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 312 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 108 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 295 |
| Debt ($M) long-term debt | 3,955 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | −3,660 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) at 31 December 2025, filed 20 February 2026; +5.8% on a year | 127 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | Not reported |
| Inventory ($M) | Not reported |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 3,024 |
| Market value ($M) | 3,268 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 6,928 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 2.7 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | 223.5 |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to book value (×) | 1.1 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 3.3 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 15.8% of shares outstanding sold short, 8.3 days of average trading to cover, −2.2% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $0 |
| 12 monthsfrom | $33K | $0 |
The thesis
Park Hotels & Resorts' demand recovery is outrunning its higher debt costs for now. On 4 November 2026 the company raised 2026 adjusted funds from operations (FFO) guidance for the third time this year, to $2.00–$2.05 per share. The fourth-quarter report and first 2027 guidance, expected around 19 February 2027, settle whether that growth survives about $30 million a year of extra interest.
The shares closed at $15.55 on 5 November 2026, the session after the report, and at $16.46 on 9 November 2026, which fully reversed the drop. The last close was $16.25 on 12 November 2026, 9.1% above its level three months earlier in adjusted closes and 5.2% below the 52-week intraday high of $17.14 set on 22 October 2026.
Cantor Fitzgerald maintained a Neutral rating and raised its price target to $17 on 10 November 2026. Evercore ISI set a $17 target with a hold-equivalent rating on 5 November 2026. Both targets sit only slightly above the last close, so the shares already reflect most of the guidance raise.
The call weakens if fourth-quarter comparable revenue per available room (RevPAR) growth lands below the 5.5% low end of Park's guidance of 5.5%–7.5%.
Bullish and bearish views on Park Hotels & Resorts Inc.
The bull case on Park Hotels & Resorts Inc. (PK), in brief: third-quarter earnings grew double digits. The bear case: the replacement debt costs more.
Bull case
- Third-quarter earnings grew double digits. Adjusted FFO was $0.39 per share, up 11.2% from a year earlier, and adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) was $135 million, up 4.0% (Park 8-K, 4 November 2026). Comparable RevPAR rose 8.4% to $201.02, with occupancy of 76.4%.
- Full-year guidance rose across the board. Comparable RevPAR growth guidance went to 5.5%–6.0% from 3.0%–4.5%, and adjusted EBITDA guidance to $635–$645 million from $617–$637 million (8-K, 4 November 2026).
- Demand entered the fourth quarter strongly. Preliminary October comparable RevPAR rose nearly 11% (8-K, 4 November 2026). Core group pace for 2027 is up nearly 6%, chief executive Tom Baltimore said on the 5 November 2026 call.
- Capital spending falls in 2027. Finance chief Sean Dell'Orto guided 2027 capital spending to $175–$185 million on 5 November 2026, against $270–$280 million expected for 2026.
- Royal Palm's earnings lie ahead. Baltimore targets about $28 million of stabilized EBITDA from Royal Palm South Beach by 2028, against about $3 million in 2026 (5 November 2026 call).
- Insiders received share grants and no sales are on file. SEC Form 4 filings from September 2026 show awards to the chief financial officer, other executives and directors, with no open-market sales.
Bear case
- The replacement debt costs more. About $1.5 billion was refinanced roughly 2 percentage points higher, about $30 million a year, Dell'Orto said on 5 November 2026. Only about $13 million falls in 2026, so most of the cost lands in 2027.
- Guidance implies slower growth after October. Fourth-quarter comparable RevPAR guidance of 5.5%–7.5% (8-K, 4 November 2026) sits below October's nearly 11%.
- Costs are accelerating. Third-quarter expenses rose 5%, against just under 4% in the first half, and the fourth-quarter assumption is 5.5%–6.5% (5 November 2026 call).
- Net income guidance fell. Park cut 2026 net income guidance to $70–$80 million from $78–$98 million and reported a third-quarter net loss of $15 million (8-K, 4 November 2026).
- Revenue is shrinking. Third-quarter total revenue was $602 million, down from $610 million a year earlier (10-Q, 5 November 2026).
Price setup
The last close was $16.25 on 12 November 2026. That is above the 50-day average of $15.67 and well above the 200-day average of $13.13, both from adjusted closes. The 52-week closing low was $9.84 on 20 November 2025.
The shares peaked intraday at $17.14 on 22 October 2026 and closed at $16.43 on 11 November 2026 and $16.46 on 9 November 2026 and 10 November 2026. A close above the $17.14 high would put the shares at a new 52-week high. The two published post-report targets, Evercore ISI's $17 and Cantor Fitzgerald's $17, both sit near the $17.14 high.
Catalysts ahead
- 30 November 2026: End of the Atlantic hurricane season. Orlando and Key West exposure means a storm closure could hit fourth-quarter RevPAR regardless of demand.
- ~19 February 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter 2026 results and first 2027 guidance. It shows whether demand, lower capital spending and Royal Palm offset about $30 million of higher annual interest.
Elapsed catalysts
- ~13 November 2026 (est.): Final 489-room phase of the New Orleans Riverside main tower returns to service. It ends renovation disruption at a hotel whose RevPAR fell 14% in the third quarter, and it supports the fourth-quarter RevPAR growth of 5.5%–7.5% that Park guided. (passed)
What would change the view
A weekly close below $15.32, which sits under the 50-day average and would erase the recovery from the post-report low. Fourth-quarter comparable RevPAR growth below the 5.5% low end of guidance, or 2027 adjusted FFO guidance below $2.00 per share, would also break the case.
The risks this note tracks, each with what would confirm it:
- Higher interest on the $1.5 billion refinancing outweighs operating growth in 2027. Confirmed by: initial 2027 adjusted FFO guidance below the 2026 range of $2.00–$2.05 per share.
- Demand slows after a strong October. Confirmed by: fourth-quarter comparable RevPAR growth below the 5.5% low end of guidance, or a decline in the nearly 6% core group pace for 2027.
- Expense growth absorbs the revenue gains. Confirmed by: fourth-quarter expense growth above the 5.5%–6.5% assumption, or a fall in hotel adjusted EBITDA margin from the 25.7% reported for the third quarter.
- Japanese travel to Hawaii stays weak and delays the recovery of the roughly $60 million EBITDA gap to the 2023 peak. Confirmed by: management again reporting Japanese travel down and international inbound near 87% of 2019 levels at the fourth-quarter report.
- A hurricane closes Orlando or Key West properties before the season ends. Confirmed by: a Park 8-K or press release disclosing a property closure or storm damage.
What it trades with
Park trades with US lodging real estate investment trusts and with the travel cycle, so its shares tend to move with industry RevPAR data and leisure-demand headlines. Its floating-rate debt, such as the Bonnet Creek mortgage at one-month term SOFR (secured overnight financing rate) plus 2.25% per the third-quarter 10-Q, ties the shares to short-term interest rates. Hilton Hawaiian Village is the largest single asset, so Japanese inbound travel and the yen add a currency link that most US hotel peers lack.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Third-quarter 2026 adjusted FFO was $0.39 per share, up 11.2% from a year earlier; adjusted EBITDA was $135 million, up 4.0%; total revenue was $602 million, down 1.2%. Park Q3 2026 earnings release, Form 8-K · as of
- Third-quarter comparable RevPAR rose 8.4% to $201.02, with occupancy of 76.4% and average daily rate of $263.19; preliminary October comparable RevPAR rose nearly 11%. Park Q3 2026 earnings release, Form 8-K · as of
- Park raised 2026 adjusted FFO guidance to $2.00–$2.05 per share from $1.90–$2.00, comparable RevPAR growth to 5.5%–6.0% from 3.0%–4.5%, and adjusted EBITDA to $635–$645 million from $617–$637 million. Park Q3 2026 earnings release, Form 8-K · as of
- Park guided fourth-quarter 2026 comparable RevPAR growth of 5.5% to 7.5% from a year earlier. Park Q3 2026 earnings release, Form 8-K · as of
- Park cut 2026 net income guidance to $70–$80 million from $78–$98 million and reported a third-quarter net loss of $15 million. Park Q3 2026 earnings release, Form 8-K · as of
- About $1.5 billion of debt was refinanced roughly 2 percentage points higher, a headwind of about $30 million a year, of which about $13 million falls in 2026. Park Q3 2026 earnings call · as of
- Core group pace for 2027 is up nearly 6%, and 2027 capital spending is guided to $175–$185 million against $270–$280 million expected for 2026. Park Q3 2026 earnings call · as of
- Cantor Fitzgerald maintained a Neutral rating on Park and raised its price target to $17. Cantor Fitzgerald note reported in company news · as of
Sources
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