EOLS · Evolus
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $9.30
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
25.2% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $9.30, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 10.4% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $9.30, just under the 52-week intraday high of $9.31 set on 4 September 2026, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500. A fourth-quarter revenue report showing 2026 revenue above the $337 million top of guidance would also show that.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Health Care
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 4 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 78.0
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +13.0
- Gross margin (%)
- 65.0
- Operating margin (%)
- −10.8
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- −4.9
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- −115
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 1.8
- Free-cash-flow yield (%)
- −1.1
All filed numbers
What Evolus reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 78.0 | +13.0 | 65.0 | −10.8 |
| first filed | 84.1 | +21.2 | 68.0 | −5.4 |
| first filed | 73.1 | +6.7 | 66.9 | −9.4 |
| first filed | 90.3 | +14.4 | 65.7 | 4.7 |
| first filed | 69.0 | +12.9 | 66.5 | −16.7 |
| first filed | 69.4 | +3.7 | 65.3 | −14.7 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | −12.2 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: −31.1 | −12.5 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +2.1 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | −2.6 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 2.3 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | −4.9 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 41.7 |
| Debt ($M) long-term debt | 157 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | −115 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) +9.4% on a year | 9.4 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 60.3 |
| Inventory ($M) | 82.8 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | −37.8 |
| Market value ($M) | 461 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 576 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 1.8 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to book value (×) | Not meaningful |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | −1.1 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 9.7% of shares outstanding sold short, 7.1 days of average trading to cover, +13.9% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $950K |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $1.8M |
The thesis
Evolus's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. Net revenue growth slowed to 13% in the third quarter from 21% in the second, cash is thin, and the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) decision on the Evolysse Sculpt filler, expected by the end of 2026, is the event that decides whether growth speeds up again.
The operating case held through the 4 November 2026 report. Net revenue was $78.0 million, the company reaffirmed 2026 net revenue guidance of $330–337 million, and it lowered its full-year non-GAAP operating expense outlook to $210–213 million from $212–216 million. The shares did not respond: they closed at $6.79 on 5 November 2026, the first session after the release, and at $7.18 on 12 November 2026.
The market has priced in slower growth. The shares closed at $7.18 on 12 November 2026, 12.0% below their price three months earlier and 22.9% below the 52-week intraday high of $9.31 (4 September 2026), even with guidance reaffirmed.
Bullish and bearish views on Evolus, Inc.
The bull case on Evolus, Inc. (EOLS), in brief: guidance was reaffirmed. The bear case: growth slowed sharply.
Bull case
- Guidance was reaffirmed. On 4 November 2026 Evolus kept 2026 net revenue guidance at $330–337 million and adjusted gross margin at 67.0–67.5%. Third-quarter net revenue of $78.0 million was up 13% from a year earlier.
- Adjusted profit is positive. Third-quarter adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) was $1.2 million, against a $3.1 million loss a year earlier, according to the 4 November 2026 results release.
- Tariff exposure narrowed. The company said on 4 November 2026, citing Commerce Department guidance, that it does not expect Jeuveau to be subject to tariffs. It holds about 12 months of Jeuveau supply. Evolysse, imported from France, still carries a 10% tariff.
- A second filler approval is pending. Evolus submitted the final module of its premarket approval application for Evolysse Sculpt in August 2025 and said on 4 November 2026 that it expects approval in the fourth quarter of 2026. Guidance includes no revenue from it.
- Analyst support continued. A 5 November 2026 headline reports BTIG maintained its Buy rating and raised its price target to $15.
Bear case
- Growth slowed sharply. Net revenue growth fell to 13% in the third quarter from 21% in the second. Global toxin revenue was $70.1 million and hyaluronic acid gel revenue was $7.9 million in the 4 November 2026 release.
- The company still loses money under standard accounting. The third-quarter operating loss under generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) was $8.4 million. The GAAP net loss was $12.5 million, or $0.19 per share.
- Margin ran below the full-year range. Third-quarter adjusted gross margin was 66.1% and GAAP gross margin was 65.0%, against the 67.0–67.5% full-year adjusted guidance.
- Cash is thin. Cash and equivalents were $41.7 million on 30 September 2026, down from $45.2 million on 30 June 2026. The company cites about $120 million of additional non-dilutive capacity, and a Form S-3 registration for up to $250 million of securities is on file.
- An FDA marketing letter is unresolved. Benzinga reported on 2 October 2026 that an FDA letter dated 28 September 2026 found an Instagram post for Jeuveau false or misleading and said it misbrands the drug.
- Insider selling came near the high. An SEC Form 4 filed 4 September 2026 shows director David Moatazedi sold 105,108 shares on the open market at $9.04 on 2 September 2026.
Price setup
The shares closed at $7.18 on 12 November 2026. That is below the 50-day average of $7.66 and above the 200-day average of $6.36, both as of the same close. The price change over three months is –12.0%, from $8.15 on 14 August 2026.
Since the report the shares have closed between $6.79 (5 November 2026) and $7.42 (11 November 2026). The 52-week intraday high is $9.31, set on 4 September 2026. The 52-week closing low is $3.94, on 30 March 2026.
A close above the 50-day average would be the first sign that buyers are responding to the reaffirmed outlook. A close below the 200-day average would show the shares giving back the move off the March low. Neither has happened since the report.
Catalysts ahead
- ~31 December 2026 (est.): FDA decision on the Evolysse Sculpt premarket approval application, expected in the fourth quarter of 2026. Approval would add a mid-face filler beside Jeuveau; 2026 guidance includes no revenue from it. A delay or complete response letter would push the next growth step back.
- ~March 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 results. Shows whether 2026 revenue reached the $330–337 million guidance range after 13% third-quarter growth, and whether adjusted gross margin reached 67.0–67.5%.
What would change the view
A daily close above $9.30, just under the 52-week intraday high of $9.31 set on 4 September 2026, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500. A fourth-quarter revenue report showing 2026 revenue above the $337 million top of guidance would also show that.
What it trades with
Evolus trades on its own company news more than on a sector move. Its main competitors in injectable neuromodulators and fillers are the larger aesthetics franchises, including AbbVie's Allergan Aesthetics and Galderma, so competitor pricing and elective-procedure demand shape its growth. Its tariff exposure runs through South Korea for Jeuveau supply and France for Evolysse. The narrow closing range of $6.79–$7.42 from 5 November to 12 November 2026 leaves the FDA decision on Evolysse Sculpt as the next company event likely to move the price.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Third-quarter 2026 net revenue was $78.0 million, up 13% from a year earlier; global toxin revenue was $70.1 million and hyaluronic acid gel revenue was $7.9 million. Evolus third-quarter 2026 results release (8-K) · as of
- Third-quarter adjusted EBITDA was $1.2 million versus a $3.1 million loss a year earlier; GAAP operating loss was $8.4 million and GAAP net loss was $12.5 million, or $0.19 per share. Evolus third-quarter 2026 results release (8-K) · as of
- 2026 guidance reaffirmed: net revenue $330–337 million and adjusted gross margin 67.0–67.5%; non-GAAP operating expense lowered to $210–213 million from $212–216 million. Evolus third-quarter 2026 results release (8-K) · as of
- Third-quarter adjusted gross margin was 66.1% and GAAP gross margin was 65.0%. Evolus third-quarter 2026 results release (8-K) · as of
- Cash and equivalents were $41.7 million at quarter end, down from $45.2 million on 30 June 2026; the company cites about $120 million of additional non-dilutive capacity. Evolus third-quarter 2026 results release (8-K) · as of
- Evolus does not expect Jeuveau to be subject to tariffs following Commerce Department guidance; Evolysse remains subject to a 10% tariff; the company holds about 12 months of Jeuveau supply. Evolus third-quarter 2026 results release (8-K) · as of
- Evolus expects FDA approval of Evolysse Sculpt in the fourth quarter of 2026; guidance includes no revenue from it. Evolus third-quarter 2026 results release (8-K) · as of
- An FDA letter dated 28 September 2026 found an Instagram post for Jeuveau false or misleading and said it misbrands the drug. Benzinga, 2 October 2026 · as of
Sources