ACHR · Archer Aviation
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $5.64
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
28.5% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $5.64, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 36.9% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $5.64, the 200-day average of adjusted closes as of 11 November 2026, which would show the shares leading again. A fourth-quarter 2026 adjusted EBITDA loss below the $185 million low end of Archer's guidance would also point to the shares leading.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Industrials
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 9 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 5.1
- Gross margin (%)
- 2.0
- Operating margin (%)
- −5670.6
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- −730
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- 1,261
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 157.7
- Free-cash-flow yield (%)
- −23.2
All filed numbers
What Archer Aviation reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 5.1 | — | 2.0 | −5670.6 |
| first filed | 5.0 | — | 14.0 | −5584.0 |
| first filed | 1.6 | — | 18.8 | −15912.5 |
| first filed | 0.3 | — | — | −78133.3 |
| first filed | 0.0 | — | — | — |
| first filed | 0.0 | — | — | — |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | −275 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: −944 | −275 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +20.0 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | −599 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 131 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | −730 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 1,354 |
| Debt ($M) long-term debt | 92.3 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | 1,261 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) −7.4% on a year | 11.3 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | Not reported |
| Inventory ($M) | Not reported |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 1,717 |
| Market value ($M) | 3,154 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 1,892 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 157.7 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to book value (×) | 1.8 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | −23.2 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 14.7% of shares outstanding sold short, 4.3 days of average trading to cover, +10.4% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $877K |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $7.7M |
The thesis
Archer Aviation's pending purchase of Boeing's Insitu, Wisk Aero and SkyGrid units would add Insitu's stated $200 million-plus of annual revenue to an air-taxi developer that reported $5.1 million of revenue in the third quarter of 2026. The shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 because the loss is widening and the deal has not closed; completion by management's 31 December 2026 target settles it.
Archer's 9 November 2026 results showed an adjusted loss before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (adjusted EBITDA) of $178.5 million, inside the $170 million–$200 million guide issued on 10 August 2026. The fourth-quarter guide is a loss of $185 million–$205 million on revenue of $5 million–$6 million. The net loss was $274.6 million, and the company held $1,353.6 million of cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments at quarter end.
The shares closed at $4.86 on 11 November 2026, up from $3.87 on 5 November 2026 and a 52-week closing low of $3.80 on 22 October 2026. That close is 47.7% below the 52-week intraday high of $9.29 on 15 January 2026. Analysts cut targets after the report: Needham to $7 and Deutsche Bank to $10 from $12 on 10 November 2026, Cantor Fitzgerald to $10 on 10 November 2026 and Canaccord Genuity to $9.5 on 11 November 2026. The market has priced the shares near $4.86 against those targets, so it already discounts a large part of the dilution and cash-burn risk.
Bullish and bearish views on Archer Aviation Inc.
The bull case on Archer Aviation Inc. (ACHR), in brief: Insitu would transform reported scale. The bear case: losses are widening.
Bull case
- Insitu would transform reported scale. Archer's 10 August 2026 announcement described Insitu as profitable with over $200 million of annual revenue. Third-quarter 2026 revenue was $5.1 million, so closing changes the revenue base by a wide multiple.
- The deal is described as near closing. Archer's 9 November 2026 release headline calls the Boeing deal close imminent, and the U.S. antitrust waiting period under the Hart-Scott-Rodino Act expired on 18 September 2026. Management's target remains the end of 2026.
- Spending came in at the favorable end. The third-quarter adjusted EBITDA loss of $178.5 million sat in the lower half of the $170 million–$200 million guide (Archer 8-K, 9 November 2026).
- Regulatory progress in Los Angeles. The FAA issued a Market Survey Special Airworthiness Certificate for the Midnight aircraft, which Archer said unlocks piloted operations in Los Angeles in the coming weeks (9 November 2026).
- Revenue beat estimates. Third-quarter revenue of $5.1 million beat the $3.567 million estimate, and the fourth-quarter revenue guide of $5 million–$6 million compares with a $4.640 million estimate (news headlines, 9 November 2026).
- Analysts keep Buy ratings. Needham, Deutsche Bank, Cantor Fitzgerald, Canaccord Genuity and Barclays kept positive ratings on 10 November 2026 and 11 November 2026, while cutting targets. Ark Investment Management was reported on 11 November 2026 to have bought about $6.3 million of shares.
Bear case
- Losses are widening. The fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA loss guide of $185 million–$205 million has a higher range than the $170 million–$200 million guide for the third quarter. The third-quarter net loss was $274.6 million (Archer 8-K, 9 November 2026).
- Analysts are lowering targets. Needham cut to $7, Deutsche Bank to $10 from $12, Cantor Fitzgerald to $10 and Canaccord Genuity to $9.5 between 10 November 2026 and 11 November 2026.
- Earnings missed on a per-share basis. Third-quarter loss per share was $0.35 against an estimate of $0.34 (news headline, 9 November 2026).
- Dilution is built into the deal. The all-stock consideration equals about 19.75% of Archer's pre-closing Class A shares, plus two warrants of $100 million each, per the 10 August 2026 filing. Boeing is set to become Archer's largest shareholder.
- Closing conditions remain open. Archer's 9 November 2026 release says the transaction remains subject to certain regulatory approvals and other closing conditions, with no closing date given.
- Executives have sold under plans. SEC Form 4 filings show open-market sales by four officers on 17 August 2026 at $6.41, by the Chief Strategy Officer on 20 August 2026 at $6.31 and by Benjamin Lyon on 21 September 2026 at $5.43, all under Rule 10b5-1 plans or alongside option exercises.
- Litigation continues. Vertical Aerospace filed a patent-infringement counterclaim in East Texas federal court on 7 October 2026, and a court dismissed Archer's counterclaims in the Joby trade-secret case with leave to amend (Archer statement, 2 October 2026).
Price setup
The shares closed at $4.86 on 11 November 2026. The 50-day average of adjusted closes was $4.81 and the 200-day average was $5.64, both as of that close. The shares are just above the first and below the second.
Recent closes were $4.12 on 4 November 2026, $3.87 on 5 November 2026, $4.44 on 6 November 2026, $4.81 on 9 November 2026 and $4.71 on 10 November 2026. The 52-week closing low is $3.80 on 22 October 2026. The three-month change to 11 November 2026 is −30.3%, from a close of $6.97 on 13 August 2026.
The rebound from the low came as the third-quarter results and analyst target cuts arrived, and no close has yet reached the 200-day average. The pending issuance of about 19.75% of pre-closing shares is a known supply overhang at closing.
Catalysts ahead
- ~31 December 2026 (est.): Management's targeted closing of the acquisition of Boeing's Insitu, Wisk Aero and SkyGrid units. Completion decides whether Insitu's stated revenue of over $200 million enters Archer's reported results and starts the issuance of about 19.75% of pre-closing Class A shares.
- ~31 December 2026 (est.): First piloted Midnight operations in Los Angeles under the FAA Market Survey certificate; Archer gave only 'coming weeks' on 9 November 2026. A flight in Los Angeles would show the aircraft operating toward the Los Angeles 2028 Olympic Games air-taxi plans.
What would change the view
A daily close above $5.64, the 200-day average of adjusted closes as of 11 November 2026, which would show the shares leading again. A fourth-quarter 2026 adjusted EBITDA loss below the $185 million low end of Archer's guidance would also point to the shares leading.
What it trades with
Archer trades with other electric air-taxi developers, especially Joby Aviation, and with high-attention growth shares. Ark Investment Management's reported buying of both Archer and Joby links the two names, and Archer was among the shares Ark bought on 11 November 2026 while it sold BYD (news headline, 12 November 2026).
Insitu ties part of the case to defense-drone policy. The White House imposed a 100% tariff on defense-related drones weighing 55 kg and above and certain components, reported by Benzinga on 14 August 2026. Boeing is the seller and would become the largest holder after closing, so Boeing's actions on its stake matter for the share supply.
Archer announced on 12 November 2026 a partnership with Formula 1 to appear at select Grands Prix and consider eVTOL air taxi services at events (news headline).
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Archer reported third-quarter 2026 revenue of $5.1 million, an adjusted EBITDA loss of $178.5 million and a net loss of $274.6 million. Archer Q3 2026 results, Form 8-K · as of
- Archer ended the third quarter with $1,353.6 million of cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments, plus $18.4 million of restricted cash. Archer Q3 2026 results press release · as of
- Archer guided fourth-quarter 2026 revenue to $5 million-$6 million and the adjusted EBITDA loss to $185 million-$205 million. Archer Q3 2026 results press release · as of
- Archer said the Boeing-unit acquisition remains subject to certain regulatory approvals and other closing conditions; the release headline describes the close as imminent and gives no date. Archer Q3 2026 results press release · as of
- The FAA issued a Market Survey Special Airworthiness Certificate for Archer's Midnight aircraft, which Archer said unlocks piloted operations in Los Angeles in the coming weeks. Archer Q3 2026 results press release · as of
- Needham lowered its price target to $7, Deutsche Bank to $10 from $12 and Cantor Fitzgerald to $10, all on 10 November 2026; Canaccord Genuity lowered its target to $9.5 on 11 November 2026. Analyst-action headlines, 10 November 2026 and 11 November 2026 · as of
- Archer's President of Aircraft OEM, Benjamin Lyon, sold 45,359 shares at $5.43 on 21 September 2026 under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. SEC Form 4, filed 23 September 2026 · as of
- Cathie Wood's Ark Investment Management bought about $6.3 million of Archer shares, reported on 11 November 2026. Company news headline, 11 November 2026 · as of
Sources
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