RHI · Robert Half
Conviction · Medium · more likely to lead the S&P 500 over the next three months, by a modest margin
Wrong if: a daily close below $36.00
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
16.7% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
The red mark is the price level of the published kill line: a close through it (a weekly close, on a weekly line) would prove the research note wrong on price. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026; a dot left of the mark has closed through its line.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close below $36.00, on record since 10 November 2026. The shares are up 0.2% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close below $36.00, which would show the gain since the third-quarter results has been lost. Fourth-quarter earnings per share under the $0.36 guidance floor, or a dividend declared below $0.59, would also show the recovery case failing.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Catalyst
Key figures from the filings · Industrials
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 30 October 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 1,359
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +0.4
- Gross margin (%)
- 39.1
- Operating margin (%)
- 5.5
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 209
- Price to earnings (×)
- 35.3
- Free-cash-flow yield (%)
- 4.9
All filed numbers
What Robert Half reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 1,359 | +0.4 | 39.1 | 5.5 |
| first filed | 1,336 | −2.4 | 35.5 | −4.7 |
| first filed | 1,300 | −3.8 | 36.9 | 2.8 |
| first filed | 1,302 | −5.8 | 37.6 | 1.7 |
| first filed | 1,355 | −7.5 | 37.2 | 1.0 |
| first filed | 1,370 | −7.0 | 37.2 | 0.1 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 74.7 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 122 | 49.9 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +0.9 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 245 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 35.8 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 209 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 321 |
| Debt ($M) | Not available |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | Not available |
| Deferred revenue ($M) +11.0% on a year | 19.0 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) +3.6% on a year | 202 |
| Receivables ($M) | 826 |
| Inventory ($M) | Not reported |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 1,209 |
| Market value ($M) | 4,299 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | Not available |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | Not available |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not available |
| Price to earnings (×) | 35.3 |
| Price to book value (×) | 3.6 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 4.9 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 19.7% of shares outstanding sold short, 10.1 days of average trading to cover, +2.5% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $0 |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $0 |
The thesis
Robert Half's staffing recovery has enough support to make the shares modestly more likely than not to beat the S&P 500 over the next three months. The fourth-quarter report, expected around late January 2027, settles it, because fourth-quarter earnings per share (EPS) guidance of $0.36–$0.46 sits below the $0.59 quarterly dividend.
The latest hiring data is the best support. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on 6 November 2026 that temporary-help jobs rose by 18,600 in October, and it revised August and September up. Robert Half's own third-quarter results on 22 October 2026 showed staffing revenue rising for the first time since 2022, according to Staffing Industry Analysts.
The shares closed at $41.97 on 12 November 2026, 11.0% below the 52-week intraday high of $47.14 set on 23 October 2026. The three-month change is –1.6%. The market has kept the post-report gain but has not extended it: closes ranged from $41.84 to $43.02 between 5 November 2026 and 12 November 2026. The next management comment comes at a J.P. Morgan conference on 17 November 2026.
Bullish and bearish views on Robert Half Inc.
The bull case on Robert Half Inc. (RHI), in brief: temporary-help hiring turned up in October. The bear case: fourth-quarter guidance points lower.
Bull case
- Temporary-help hiring turned up in October. The BLS reported a gain of 18,600 temporary-help jobs in October (Employment Situation, 6 November 2026).
- Earlier months were revised up. BLS revised August temporary help to a gain of 15,500 and September to a loss of 5,600 (6 November 2026 release). Professional and business services added 70,000 jobs in October.
- Overall hiring beat forecasts. Nonfarm payrolls rose 165,000 in October and unemployment was 4.1%, BLS said on 6 November 2026.
- Third-quarter results beat estimates. EPS was $0.49 against a $0.47 analyst estimate, on revenue of $1.359 billion against a $1.357 billion estimate (Benzinga, 22 October 2026). Net income was $50 million.
- Staffing revenue grew again. Staffing revenue rose in the third quarter for the first time since 2022 (Staffing Industry Analysts, 22 October 2026). Revenue in the 10-Q filed 30 October 2026 was $1.36 billion, against $1.35 billion a year earlier.
- The dividend held after the report. The board declared $0.59 per share on 29 October 2026, payable 15 December 2026 to holders of record on 25 November 2026 (company news).
- Some brokers see room above the price. BMO Capital (Outperform) raised its target to $50 on 26 October 2026, and JPMorgan (Neutral) raised its target to $45 on 23 October 2026 (Benzinga).
Bear case
- Fourth-quarter guidance points lower. Robert Half guided fourth-quarter EPS to $0.36–$0.46 and revenue to $1.285–$1.385 billion on 22 October 2026 (Benzinga). The top of the EPS range is below the third-quarter result of $0.49.
- The dividend exceeds earnings. The $0.59 payout declared on 29 October 2026 compares with third-quarter EPS of $0.49 and the fourth-quarter range. Keeping it means paying out more than guided earnings for another quarter.
- Protiviti is shrinking. Revenue at the consulting unit fell 3.3% after adjustments to $483.5 million in the third quarter (Staffing Industry Analysts, 22 October 2026). The unit's leadership changes on 1 January 2027, when Cory Gunderson becomes president and chief executive.
- The shares fell on good hiring news. The close dropped from $42.99 on 5 November 2026 to $41.84 on 6 November 2026, the day of the strong October report. KPMG's commentary that day was headlined "Employment gains lock in December rate hike", so a firmer labour market also raises tighter-money risk.
- Two brokers are below the price. Goldman Sachs kept Sell with a $33 target on 23 October 2026, and Barclays (Equal-Weight) set $40 on 26 October 2026 (Benzinga).
Price setup
The shares closed at $41.97 on 12 November 2026, after $42.22 on 11 November 2026 and a recent high close of $43.02 on 10 November 2026. The 52-week intraday high is $47.14, set on 23 October 2026, the session after the third-quarter report. The 52-week closing low is $21.86, on 16 March 2026.
The last adjusted close is above both the 50-day average of $38.52 and the 200-day average of $32.32, both as of 12 November 2026. The shares have held above the 50-day average since the report. Over the past three months they are down 1.6%, so the move since the report has recovered the earlier slide rather than set a new trend.
The close sits between Barclays' $40 target and JPMorgan's $45 target. No insider transactions appear in recent SEC filings; the latest filing is the 10-Q of 30 October 2026.
Catalysts ahead
- 17 November 2026: CEO Keith Waddell's fireside chat at the J.P. Morgan Ultimate Services Investor Conference. First public management comment on fourth-quarter trends, Protiviti or the dividend since the 22 October 2026 report.
- 25 November 2026: Record date for the $0.59 dividend, payable 15 December 2026. Sets who receives the payout declared after fourth-quarter guidance put EPS below that amount.
- ~4 December 2026 (est.): BLS November Employment Situation report. Shows whether October's 18,600 temporary-help gain carries into a second month.
- ~28 January 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter 2026 results; date not yet announced by Robert Half. Tests the $0.36–$0.46 EPS and $1.285–$1.385 billion revenue guidance, staffing growth and the dividend.
What would change the view
A daily close below $36.00, which would show the gain since the third-quarter results has been lost. Fourth-quarter earnings per share under the $0.36 guidance floor, or a dividend declared below $0.59, would also show the recovery case failing.
The risks this note tracks, each with what would confirm it:
- Fourth-quarter guidance points to sequential softness, so the third-quarter beat may mark a peak. Confirmed by: fourth-quarter revenue under the $1.285 billion guidance floor, or EPS under $0.36, at the next report.
- The $0.59 quarterly dividend exceeds earnings per share and could be reduced. Confirmed by: a declaration below $0.59 at the next quarterly board action, or payout commentary on the fourth-quarter call.
- October's temporary-help gain proves a one-month rebound. Confirmed by: a decline in temporary-help jobs in the BLS November report, or a downward revision to October's 18,600 gain.
- Protiviti revenue keeps falling and offsets staffing growth. Confirmed by: Protiviti revenue down from a year earlier again in the fourth quarter, after a 3.3% adjusted fall in the third.
- Strong jobs data raises rate expectations and weighs on cyclical shares. Confirmed by: further share declines on strong labour data, as on 6 November 2026, alongside a December rate increase.
What it trades with
Robert Half trades as a labour-market cyclical. The shares respond to the monthly BLS temporary-help line and to Federal Reserve rate expectations: on 6 November 2026 they fell while the jobs data beat forecasts and the market priced a December rate increase, per KPMG. Protiviti ties part of revenue to corporate consulting and risk budgets rather than hiring, so the shares carry a second driver beyond staffing demand.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Temporary-help services employment rose by 18,600 in October 2026; August was revised to a gain of 15,500 and September to a loss of 5,600. BLS Employment Situation, October 2026, Summary table B · as of
- Total nonfarm payrolls rose 165,000 in October 2026, unemployment was 4.1%, and professional and business services added 70,000 jobs. BLS Employment Situation, October 2026 · as of
- Third-quarter 2026 EPS was $0.49 against a $0.47 analyst estimate; revenue was $1.359 billion against a $1.357 billion estimate; net income was $50 million. Robert Half third-quarter 2026 results release; Benzinga · as of
- Fourth-quarter 2026 guidance is EPS of $0.36–$0.46 (analyst estimate $0.40) and revenue of $1.285–$1.385 billion. Benzinga, Robert Half fourth-quarter outlook · as of
- Staffing revenue rose in the third quarter for the first time since 2022; Protiviti revenue fell 3.3% after adjustments to $483.5 million. Staffing Industry Analysts · as of
- Robert Half declared a quarterly dividend of $0.59 per share, payable 15 December 2026 to shareholders of record on 25 November 2026. Robert Half dividend announcement via fiscal.ai · as of
- Quarterly revenue of $1.36 billion against $1.35 billion in the same quarter a year earlier, for the period ended 30 September 2026. Robert Half 10-Q (SEC XBRL) · as of
- JPMorgan (Neutral) raised its target to $45 and Goldman Sachs (Sell) to $33 on 23 October 2026; BMO Capital (Outperform) raised to $50 and Barclays (Equal-Weight) to $40 on 26 October 2026. Benzinga analyst actions · as of
Sources
- Employment Situation News Release - 2026 M10 Results · bls.gov
- Robert Half staffing revenue up in Q3 for first time since 2022 · staffingindustry.com
- Finviz ·
- Employment gains lock in December rate hike · kpmg.com