FSLR · First Solar
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $201.14
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
14.8% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $201.14, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 21.3% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $201.14, the highest close of the last 20 sessions (6 November 2026), would show the shares leading the S&P 500 and prove this call wrong.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Catalyst
Key figures from the filings · Technology
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 29 October 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 1,231
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- −22.8
- Gross margin (%)
- 57.9
- Operating margin (%)
- 44.4
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 233
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- 1,516
- Price to earnings (×)
- 9.9
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 3.4
All filed numbers
What First Solar reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 1,231 | −22.8 | 57.9 | 44.4 |
| first filed | 1,056 | −3.7 | 57.3 | 42.6 |
| first filed | 1,044 | +23.6 | 46.6 | 33.1 |
| first filed | 1,683 | +11.1 | 39.5 | 32.6 |
| first filed | 1,595 | +79.7 | 38.3 | 29.2 |
| first filed | 1,097 | +8.6 | 45.6 | 33.0 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 566 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 1,861 | 571 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +0.2 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 839 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 606 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 233 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 1,624 |
| Debt ($M) | 108 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | 1,516 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) −28.0% on a year | 1,598 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 1,591 |
| Inventory ($M) | 1,139 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 10,881 |
| Market value ($M) | 18,421 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 16,905 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 3.4 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | 8.9 |
| Price to earnings (×) | 9.9 |
| Price to book value (×) | 1.7 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 1.3 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 10.8% of shares outstanding sold short, 5.8 days of average trading to cover, +4.2% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $299K |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $30.5M |
The thesis
First Solar's third-quarter report on 29 October 2026 showed contracted backlog fell to 44.0 gigawatts (GW) from 45.1 GW, and new US bookings priced near $0.36 per watt. The company also cut 2026 sales guidance. What settles the case now is whether the $0.38-per-watt minimum import price, effective 4 December 2026, shows up as higher-priced bookings in the next quarterly report.
The shares closed at $180.98 on 10 November 2026, 43.1% below the 52-week high of $318.25 and 19.1% lower over three months (adjusted daily closes). The close on 28 October 2026, before the report, was $176.30. The story is well known: the import-floor story is well known, and the main new attention since the report came from the 3 November 2026 US midterm elections, which lifted solar shares on 4 November 2026. The rating sits at the low end because the reported numbers weakened while the supports are policy and sentiment.
Bullish and bearish views on First Solar, Inc.
The bull case on First Solar, Inc. (FSLR), in brief: earnings and cash stayed strong. The bear case: contracted demand fell again.
Bull case
- Earnings and cash stayed strong. Q3 net sales were $1.23 billion, down 23% from a year earlier, but net income was $571 million, or $5.30 per diluted share, against $4.24 a year earlier. Adjusted EBITDA was $744 million, up 11% from $671 million (PV Tech, 30 October 2026, reporting the company release).
- A $500 million buyback was authorized. The board approved the repurchase program on 29 October 2026, effective immediately with no expiration date (Mercom India, 30 October 2026).
- The import floor is close. A presidential proclamation sets a $0.38-per-watt minimum import price on covered modules from 4 December 2026 (Federal Register, document 2026-16400, 6 August 2026). CEO Mark Widmar called Section 232 a "structural change" in US solar manufacturing on the 29 October 2026 call (PV Tech).
- More trade protection arrived. The US Department of Commerce and the US International Trade Commission issued antidumping duty orders on solar cells from India, Indonesia and Laos on 9 November 2026 (company-news headline, 9 November 2026).
- Analysts still sit above the price. UBS kept Buy with a $295 target on 10 November 2026, Citigroup kept Buy with $283 on 2 November 2026, Barclays kept Overweight with $230 on 2 November 2026, and Piper Sandler kept Overweight with $222 on 9 November 2026. William Blair upgraded the shares to Outperform on 5 November 2026.
Bear case
- Contracted demand fell again. Backlog was 44.0 GW at 30 September 2026, about $13.5 billion, against 45.1 GW at 30 June 2026, 47.9 GW at 31 March 2026 and a 53.7 GW peak in Q3 2025 (company results via Mercom India and PV Tech).
- New bookings priced under the floor. The company booked about 1.4 GW of US orders since the prior call at roughly $0.36 per watt, below the $0.38 floor (Mercom India, 30 October 2026). Management tied the slow pace to tariff and procurement uncertainty, per pv magazine, 30 October 2026.
- Full-year guidance came down. Net sales guidance fell to $4.6–4.9 billion from $4.9–5.2 billion, module volume to 16–17 GW from 17–18.2 GW, and adjusted EBITDA to $2.55–2.75 billion from $2.6–2.8 billion (PV Tech, 30 October 2026).
- Cash quality helped the quarter. PV Tech reported that Q3 cash benefited from Section 45X manufacturing tax credit receipts and refunds of tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. Net cash was $1.5 billion at 30 September 2026, down from $2.4 billion at 31 December 2025.
- Targets keep being cut. Citigroup ($283), Barclays ($230), Piper Sandler ($222) and UBS ($295) all lowered targets between 2 November 2026 and 10 November 2026 while keeping positive ratings.
Price setup
The adjusted close was $180.98 on 10 November 2026, up from $176.30 on 28 October 2026. The 14-day Relative Strength Index, a 0–100 momentum gauge, was 54.6, up from 47.1 on 28 October 2026. The shares remain 43.1% below the 52-week high of $318.25.
The $165 level sits under the late-September 52-week lows and is 8.8% under the 10 November 2026 close. The shares have not closed below it since the earnings report.
First Solar guided Q4 module sales to 4.3–5.3 GW and adjusted EBITDA to $643–843 million. Total sales guidance for the year implies a heavier fourth quarter than the 1.23 billion reported for Q3, so delivery timing matters to the year's result.
Catalysts ahead
- 4 December 2026: Section 232 minimum import price of $0.38 per watt takes effect. New contracts can be tested against the floor; Q3 US bookings priced near $0.36 per watt.
- ~February 2027 (est.): Q4 and full-year 2026 report. Shows whether backlog stabilises near 44.0 GW and whether bookings price at or above $0.38 per watt.
What would change the view
A daily close above $201.14, the highest close of the last 20 sessions (6 November 2026), would show the shares leading the S&P 500 and prove this call wrong.
What it trades with
First Solar moved with solar and renewable shares on 4 November 2026, when it rose about 9% after Democrats won control of Congress (Benzinga, 4 November 2026). Solar shares also react to long-dated US Treasury yields, which set project financing costs; Yahoo Finance reported a drop of more than 10% in the shares on 24 September 2026 after a sharp rise in yields. First Solar's US-made modules and Section 232 floor separate it from import-reliant installers and from Chinese-linked module makers.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Contracted module backlog was 44.0 GW (about $13.5 billion) at 30 September 2026, versus 45.1 GW at 30 June 2026. First Solar Q3 2026 results via PV Tech and Mercom India · as of
- About 1.4 GW of new US gross bookings since the prior call at an average selling price near $0.36 per watt. First Solar Q3 2026 results via Mercom India · as of
- 2026 guidance cut: net sales $4.6–4.9B (from $4.9–5.2B), volume 16–17 GW (from 17–18.2 GW), adjusted EBITDA $2.55–2.75B (from $2.6–2.8B). PV Tech, 30 October 2026, citing the company release · as of
- Q3 net sales $1.23B (down 23% YoY), net income $571M, diluted EPS $5.30, adjusted EBITDA $744M; net cash $1.5B. PV Tech, 30 October 2026, citing the company release · as of
- Q4 2026 guidance: module sales 4.3–5.3 GW and adjusted EBITDA $643–843M; board authorized a $500M share repurchase. PV Tech and Mercom India, 30 October 2026 · as of
- UBS maintained Buy and lowered its First Solar target to $295. Benzinga analyst headline · as of
- William Blair upgraded First Solar to Outperform. Benzinga analyst headline · as of
- Adjusted close $180.98; 52-week high $318.25 (43.1% above); three-month change negative 19.1%; 14-day RSI 54.6. Split/dividend-adjusted daily closes · as of
Sources
- First Solar sales down 23% year-on-year, cuts full-year revenue guidance · pv-tech.org
- First Solar Cuts 2026 Guidance as Q3 Revenue Falls 23% YoY · mercomindia.com
- First Solar cuts sales forecast as tariff uncertainty slows orders · pv-magazine.com ·
- Democratic sweep in US midterms brings reprieve for solar but federal gridlock persists · pv-tech.org
- First Solar Jumps 9% After Democratic Sweep, but Trump's Tariffs Already Favor It · benzinga.com
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