BSP · Bending Spoons S.p.A.
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $55.77
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
26.3% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $55.77, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are up 6.7% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $55.77, just above the 14 October 2026 intraday high of $55.76, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500 again. A result that would also show it: third-quarter revenue above the $745 million top of the guide with organic growth above 3%.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Catalyst
Key figures from the filings · Technology
Filed figures are not available: no quarterly report in US GAAP with the SEC (a foreign filer reports on Form 20-F or 40-F).
All filed numbers
What Bending Spoons S.p.A. reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): the share of shares outstanding is not available, 3.8 days of average trading to cover, −5.8% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $0 |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $0 |
The thesis
Bending Spoons' model of buying software companies and running them for profit still produces earnings, but organic growth of 3% and costlier debt leave the shares more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. The third-quarter report on 20 November 2026 and the expiry of the IPO lock-up after it settle whether the Berkshire Hathaway-driven gain holds.
The company announced on 6 November 2026 that it will publish third-quarter results before the US market opens on 20 November 2026, with a call at 8:00 a.m. Eastern. Its third-quarter guide is $733–745 million of revenue, excluding Airtable.
The shares closed at $40.50 on 11 November 2026 on adjusted daily closes, below the $45.52 close of 30 October 2026. That is under the $43 average analyst target Benzinga reported on 25 September 2026. The 3-month change is −1.0%.
Bullish and bearish views on Bending Spoons S.p.A.
The bull case on Bending Spoons S.p.A. (BSP), in brief: profitable growth from acquired software. The bear case: organic growth is only 3%.
Bull case
- Profitable growth from acquired software. The company guides 2026 revenue of $2.78–2.82 billion and adjusted operating income of $1.46–1.51 billion (13 August 2026 Form 6-K). Second-quarter net income was $177 million.
- Two large deals now closed. Airtable closed on 4 September 2026 and Miro on 26 October 2026 (company releases). Bending Spoons agreed the Miro purchase at a $1.355 billion enterprise value.
- Debt investors took more than offered. The 2032 senior secured notes were upsized to about $1.8 billion from a proposed $1.5 billion (company pricing release, 28 October 2026). The company says the proceeds will fund future acquisitions.
- Berkshire's money has arrived. The $330 million placement at $33 closed on 29 October 2026, taking Berkshire's stake to 4% after $600 million in the July IPO (company 6-K). The shares remain above the $33 placement price and the $29 IPO price.
Bear case
- Organic growth is only 3%. Second-quarter revenue of $704 million rose 126% from a year earlier, almost entirely through acquisitions (13 August 2026 Form 6-K). Chief executive Luca Ferrari has said most future growth will come from more deals.
- New debt carries high coupons. The 2032 notes pay 9.625% in dollars and 8.625% in euros (28 October 2026 release). They add to $4.09 billion of net debt at a 2.4x leverage ratio at the end of June, before the cash Airtable and Miro purchases (13 August 2026 Form 6-K).
- Analyst stance is cautious. Bank of America kept Underperform with a $36 target on 29 September 2026, and Benzinga's average of eight analysts was $43 on 25 September 2026.
- New share supply is arriving. Berkshire's 10 million new shares are issued, and some Miro holders agreed to reinvest $295 million in new shares (10 September 2026 release). Pre-IPO holders can sell for the first time once the lock-up expires, 48 hours after the third-quarter release.
Price setup
The adjusted close was $40.50 on 11 November 2026, against a 50-day average of $40.63. The shares sit on that average after falling from the $45.52 close of 30 October 2026.
The 13 October 2026 close of $37.86, the last close before the Berkshire announcement, is the level that would erase the whole gain. The shares traded as high as $55.76 intraday on 14 October 2026 (Benzinga) and have not closed near it since.
Two prices anchor the share supply: Berkshire's $33 placement price and the $29 IPO price. Both are below the last close, so pre-IPO holders and Berkshire's new shares carry gains if the lock-up releases.
Catalysts ahead
- 20 November 2026: Q3 2026 results, before the US market opens, with a call at 8:00 a.m. Eastern. Tests the $733–745 million revenue guide, organic growth against Q2's 3%, and leverage after the cash Airtable and Miro purchases.
- ~22 November 2026 (est.): Earliest IPO lock-up expiry, 48 hours after the Q3 release and no earlier than 125 days after the prospectus date. Pre-IPO holders can sell for the first time, adding share supply while the shares trade above the $33 and $29 entry prices.
What would change the view
A daily close above $55.77, just above the 14 October 2026 intraday high of $55.76, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500 again. A result that would also show it: third-quarter revenue above the $745 million top of the guide with organic growth above 3%.
What it trades with
The shares trade with sentiment toward listed software companies. Ferrari told Bloomberg on 9 October 2026 that he sees buying opportunities in the software sell-off. With 9.625% dollar notes outstanding, the shares are also exposed to high-yield credit spreads, because the cost of funding each new deal rises with them. Berkshire Hathaway headlines moved the price more than any company result this quarter: the shares jumped as much as 47.3% intraday on 14 October 2026 (Benzinga).
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Q2 2026 revenue was $704 million, up 126% year over year; organic revenue growth was 3%; net income was $177 million. Bending Spoons Q2 2026 results, Form 6-K · as of
- Net debt was $4.09 billion at a 2.4x leverage ratio, with $793 million of cash and $1.28 billion of undrawn revolving credit. Bending Spoons Q2 2026 results, Form 6-K · as of
- 2026 guidance is $2.78–2.82 billion of revenue and $1.46–1.51 billion of adjusted operating income; Q3 revenue guidance is $733–745 million, excluding Airtable. Bending Spoons Q2 2026 results, Form 6-K · as of
- Bending Spoons completed its all-cash acquisition of Miro at a $1.355 billion enterprise value. Bending Spoons press release · as of
- Bending Spoons priced $1.25 billion of 9.625% and €500 million of 8.625% senior secured notes due 2032 at par, about $1.8 billion in total, upsized from $1.5 billion. Bending Spoons pricing release · as of
- Berkshire Hathaway's purchase of 10 million new shares at $33 (about $330 million) closed, raising its stake to 4% after $600 million in the July IPO. Bending Spoons Form 6-K · as of
- Bending Spoons will publish Q3 2026 results before the US market opens on 20 November 2026, with a call at 8:00 a.m. Eastern. Company announcement via GlobeNewswire, 6 November 2026 · as of
- Bank of America maintained Underperform and cut its price target to $36; eight analysts' average target was $43 as of 25 September 2026. Benzinga · as of
Sources
- pluang.com ·
- Bending Spoons S.p.A. - Form 6-K - FY2026 · sec.gov
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