BSIN · Big Sky Industrial
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $1.48
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
21.6% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $1.48, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 18.3% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $1.48, the 50-day average of closes as of 11 November 2026, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500. A signed larger credit facility or a Section 45Q tax-credit monetisation agreement would also show the shares leading.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Energy
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 10 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 2.0
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +12.5
- Operating margin (%)
- −160.3
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- −5.5
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 9.4
All filed numbers
What Big Sky Industrial reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 2.0 | +12.5 | −160.3 |
| first filed | 2.1 | +5.2 | −111.8 |
| first filed | 1.6 | −26.9 | −196.0 |
| first filed | 1.4 | −67.0 | −118.7 |
| first filed | 1.7 | −64.9 | −194.4 |
| first filed | 2.0 | −66.5 | −307.6 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | −3.5 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: −10.8 | −3.5 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +60.1 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | −5.6 |
| Capital spending ($M) | Not reported |
| Free cash flow ($M) | Not available |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 3.0 |
| Debt ($M) credit line | 8.5 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | −5.5 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) | Not reported |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 0.7 |
| Inventory ($M) | Not reported |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 34.1 |
| Market value ($M) | 61.1 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 66.6 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 9.4 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to book value (×) | 1.8 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | Not available |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 0.9% of shares outstanding sold short, 1.6 days of average trading to cover, +3.6% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $0 |
| 12 monthsfrom | $13K | $907K |
The thesis
Big Sky Industrial, formerly U.S. Energy Corp., is turning from an oil and gas producer into a helium and carbon-management company. The shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. The third-quarter report filed on 10 November 2026 put first production in spring 2027, showed cash of $2.9 million, and left the financing for the build without a signed agreement. A signed larger credit facility, a tax-credit monetisation deal or EPA approval would show the case moving ahead of the shares.
The company reported third-quarter revenue of $1,955 thousand on 10 November 2026, against $1,738 thousand a year earlier, and a net loss of $3,496 thousand, or $(0.07) per share. A news summary of the report listed the loss per share as $0.01 wider than the $(0.06) estimate and revenue as $1.955 million against a $1.950 million estimate. The shares closed at $1.31 on 10 November 2026 and $1.24 on 11 November 2026.
The timetable reads later than in August. The Q2 release of 11 August 2026 targeted first gas, commercial operations and first revenue in the first quarter of 2027. The Q3 release says "We are targeting first production in spring 2027" and "construction remains on schedule". Equipment installation runs from late in the fourth quarter of 2026 into the first quarter of 2027.
Bullish and bearish views on Big Sky Industrial Inc.
The bull case on Big Sky Industrial Inc. (BSIN), in brief: helium has a contracted buyer. The bear case: cash is low and debt is rising.
Bull case
- Helium has a contracted buyer. The offtake covers 100% of output on take-or-pay terms for five years at an initial plant-gate price of $285 per thousand cubic feet (Q2 2026 results release, 11 August 2026; repeated in the Q3 release, 10 November 2026).
- Permit timing does not gate helium. The Q3 release says Big Rose monitoring plan approval "is not a condition to starting the Phase 1 plant or selling helium". The plan was accepted on 12 November 2025 and is in the final stage of EPA review.
- Existing oil business lost less. Adjusted EBITDA was $(838) thousand in the third quarter, against $(1,255) thousand a year earlier, and the per-share loss narrowed to $(0.07) from $(0.10) (Q3 2026 release, 10 November 2026).
- Two funding talks are open. The company said on 10 November 2026 it is in discussions on a new, larger senior secured credit facility and that talks on Section 45Q carbon-credit monetisation are progressing. Chief Executive Ryan Smith put the possible non-dilutive cash from 45Q at $70 million to $95 million (Noble Capital Markets conference, 1 October 2026, via MarketsDaily).
Bear case
- Cash is low and debt is rising. Cash was $2,915 thousand at 30 September 2026, against $4.9 million at 4 August 2026. Total debt was $8.5 million, up from $2.5 million at 31 December 2025, and total liquidity was $14.4 million including $11.5 million of undrawn credit (Q3 2026 release).
- Shares outstanding keep rising. The count was 52,499,955 at 30 September 2026 against 34,405,143 at 31 December 2025. Nine-month proceeds were $8,086 thousand from an underwritten offering and $9,103 thousand from a committed equity facility.
- No agreement yet on the funding. The larger credit facility and the 45Q monetisation have no announced signing as of the 10 November 2026 release. The $70 million to $95 million figure is a management estimate.
- Spending is ahead of revenue. Industrial-gas capital spending was $15,170 thousand for the nine months to 30 September 2026, and the plant has no revenue. The third quarter included about $1.2 million of environmental remediation on legacy oil leases, and production fell to 30,628 barrels of oil equivalent from 35,326.
- Carbon credits still wait on the EPA. The Cut Bank plan, submitted 17 December 2025, remains in the EPA process, and no approval has been issued for Big Rose.
Price setup
The shares closed at $1.24 on 11 November 2026. That is 25.7% below the 52-week high of $1.67 (intraday, 15 September 2026) and 8.8% lower over three months, measured from the $1.36 close on 13 August 2026. The close was $1.44 on 4 November 2026 and $1.32 on 5 November 2026, so most of the decline preceded the report.
The shares sit below the 50-day average of closes of $1.48 and above the 200-day average of $1.18, both as of 11 November 2026. The 200-day average is the nearest level beneath the last close. The 52-week closing low is $0.69 from 10 April 2026.
The price already reflects a company with a signed helium contract and a funded first plant, discounted for a later start date and a small cash balance. The market has not paid for the 45Q credits or the second phase of the build.
Catalysts ahead
- ~31 December 2026 (est.): End of the window in which management said an EPA sequestration permit could be approved. An approval clears the carbon-credit part of the case; no approval by then leaves it open into 2027.
- Spring 2027 (company target): First production and first helium sales at the Phase 1 plant. First revenue from the helium contract is the event the pivot depends on; a later date would extend the funding need.
What would change the view
A daily close above $1.48, the 50-day average of closes as of 11 November 2026, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500. A signed larger credit facility or a Section 45Q tax-credit monetisation agreement would also show the shares leading.
What it trades with
Big Sky Industrial trades on its own project milestones, financing news and permitting. Moves in small-cap and speculative shares and in access to capital markets set the cost of any new equity. Helium and natural gas prices matter less near term because the offtake is fixed at $285 per thousand cubic feet for five years.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Q3 2026 revenue was $1,955 thousand (Q3 2025: $1,738 thousand); net loss was $3,496 thousand, or $(0.07) per share; adjusted EBITDA was $(838) thousand. Q3 2026 results release, 8-K exhibit 99.1 · as of
- Cash was $2,915 thousand, undrawn credit was $11.5 million, total liquidity $14.4 million and total debt $8.5 million (from $2.5 million at 31 December 2025). Q3 2026 results release, 8-K exhibit 99.1 · as of
- Shares outstanding were 52,499,955, against 34,405,143 at 31 December 2025; nine-month proceeds were $8,086 thousand from an underwritten offering and $9,103 thousand from a committed equity facility. Q3 2026 results release, 8-K exhibit 99.1 · as of
- The company targets first production in spring 2027, says construction remains on schedule and that Big Rose monitoring plan approval is not a condition to starting the plant or selling helium. Q3 2026 results release, 8-K exhibit 99.1 · as of
- Industrial-gas property capital spending was $15,170 thousand for the nine months; lease operating expense of $2.1 million included about $1.2 million of environmental remediation. Q3 2026 results release, 8-K exhibit 99.1 · as of
- Helium offtake is 100% take-or-pay for five years at an initial plant-gate price of $285 per thousand cubic feet. Q2 2026 results release · as of
- The Q2 release targeted first gas, commercial operations and first revenue in the first quarter of 2027. Q2 2026 results release · as of
- CEO Ryan Smith said one EPA sequestration permit is pending, with approval possible before year-end 2026, and put possible non-dilutive 45Q cash at $70 million to $95 million. Noble Capital Markets conference, via MarketsDaily · as of
Sources