BTBT · Bit Digital
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $1.08
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
38.7% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $1.08, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 58.6% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $1.08, the 15 October 2026 close, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500 again. Fourth-quarter consolidated cloud revenue above the $23.8 million second-quarter level would also show the shares leading.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
The business · as of
Bit Digital owns 59.7% of WhiteFiber (WYFI), which sells GPU cloud, colocation and data-center capacity, and holds an Ether treasury with staking; bitcoin mining is being wound down. Revenue was $27 million in the quarter to 30 September 2026.
What is changing, and what follows · as of
- What is changing now
- On 12 November 2026 Bit Digital reported third-quarter revenue of $27.1 million, down 11% from a year earlier, with cloud services revenue of $18.1 million against $23.8 million in the second quarter.
- What follows for the company
- Parent-level cash fell to about $5.0 million at 30 September 2026 from $27.5 million at 30 June 2026, while more liquid-staked Ether was pledged to back WhiteFiber borrowing.
- What follows for its customers, suppliers and competitors
- WhiteFiber (WYFI), the consolidated subsidiary, reported revenue of $24.0 million on 10 November 2026 against a consensus of about $30.2 million, so its results flow straight into Bit Digital's cloud line.
What the price assumes · as of
At the 13 November 2026 close (filed figures to 12 November 2026) the shares trade at 1.4 times sales and 0.4 times book value, for a market value of $238 million and an enterprise value of $167 million; P/E and EV/EBIT are not meaningful. Holding that needs cloud revenue to grow again, since free cash flow was negative $593 million over four quarters.
Key figures from the filings · Financials
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 12 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 27.1
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- −11.2
- Operating margin (%)
- 239.5
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- −593
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- 70.9
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 1.4
- Free-cash-flow yield (%)
- −247.9
All filed numbers
What Bit Digital reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 27.1 | −11.2 | 239.5 |
| first filed | 32.1 | +25.2 | −257.3 |
| first filed | 27.9 | +11.2 | −511.8 |
| first filed | 32.3 | +25.4 | −596.8 |
| first filed | 30.5 | +33.4 | 465.5 |
| first filed restated | 25.7 | −11.7 | 45.7 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 1.9 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: −414 | 28.5 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +13.7 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 79.2 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 672 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | −593 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 144 |
| Debt ($M) | 72.6 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | 70.9 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) +7313.4% on a year | 729 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 39.8 |
| Inventory ($M) | Not reported |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 539 |
| Market value ($M) | 239 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 168 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 1.4 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to book value (×) | 0.4 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | −247.9 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 16.2% of shares outstanding sold short, 3.3 days of average trading to cover, +6.2% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $0 |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $3.2M |
The thesis
Bit Digital's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. Third-quarter revenue missed estimates, parent-level cash is about $5.0 million, and the shares closed at a 52-week closing low of $0.66 on 13 November 2026, so the discount to its assets has no operating catalyst yet. Fourth-quarter consolidated cloud revenue rising back above the $23.8 million second-quarter level would be the first sign of a turn.
The company reported third-quarter revenue of $27.1 million on 12 November 2026, down 11% from $30.5 million a year earlier and below a $32.235 million estimate cited by a 12 November 2026 news report. The shares closed at $0.77 that day and at $0.66 the next session.
In the same release, Bit Digital valued its 27,043,750 WhiteFiber shares (59.7% of WhiteFiber's stock) at about $487 million at $18.01 per share, and its 163,725.9 Ether (ETH) at $439.4 million, both at 30 September 2026. The filed market value at the 13 November 2026 close is $238 million, and filed equity at 30 September 2026 is $539 million.
Net income attributable to shareholders was $28.5 million, or $0.08 per diluted share, against a $107.2 million loss in the second quarter. The earnings line moves with non-cash Ether valuation marks, so cloud and colocation revenue are the operating read.
Bullish and bearish views on Bit Digital, Inc.
The bull case on Bit Digital, Inc. (BTBT), in brief: the asset base dwarfs the share price. The bear case: revenue missed and fell.
Bull case
- The asset base dwarfs the share price. At 30 September 2026 the WhiteFiber stake was valued at about $487 million and the Ether holding at $439.4 million, per the company's 12 November 2026 release. Filed equity of $539 million works out to $1.49 a share, and the shares trade at 0.4 times book value at the 13 November 2026 close.
- Contracted revenue is large. Remaining performance obligations were about $729.0 million at 30 September 2026, with $235.1 million expected in 2027 and $206.9 million in 2028, per the company's release.
- Colocation is growing. Colocation revenue was $5.6 million, up 232% from a year earlier, per the 12 November 2026 release. Cloud gross margin was about 56%.
- A buyback is under discussion. Management said in the release that repurchases "deserve serious consideration," though shareholder approval under the Articles of Association is required first. H.C. Wainwright maintained its Buy rating on 12 November 2026 and lowered its target to $3.50 from $4.
- WhiteFiber has growth sites. WhiteFiber completed the $60 million purchase of the NC-2 and NC-3 sites on 3 November 2026, targeting initial capacity in late 2027, and about 35 megawatts of the contracted 40 megawatts at NC-1 was operating on that date, per its 3 November 2026 release.
Bear case
- Revenue missed and fell. Total revenue of $27.1 million in the quarter to 30 September 2026 was down 11.2% from a year earlier, after $32 million in the quarter to 30 June 2026, per the filed 10-Q. The release showed second-quarter revenue of $32.113 million.
- Cloud revenue stepped back. Cloud services revenue was $18.1 million against $23.8 million in the second quarter. WhiteFiber's own third-quarter revenue on 10 November 2026 was $24.0 million against a consensus of about $30.2 million, per Stockanalysis, and its cloud line included a $3.4 million customer termination fee.
- Parent cash is thin. Of about $143.5 million of consolidated cash at 30 September 2026, about $5.0 million sat at Bit Digital and about $138.5 million at WhiteFiber. At 30 June 2026 the parent held $27.5 million, per the second-quarter release.
- Cash burn is heavy. Over the four quarters to 30 September 2026 the filed figures show operating cash flow of $79 million, capital spending of $672 million and free cash flow of negative $593 million. The diluted share count rose 13.7% from a year earlier.
- Ether backs WhiteFiber debt. Convertible notes, net, were $445.3 million at 30 September 2026. WhiteFiber drew $70 million on 27 October 2026, and Bit Digital pledged 45,000 more liquid-staked Ether (LsETH) after quarter-end on top of 19,000 LsETH pledged at 30 September 2026.
- Mining and staking are shrinking. Mining revenue was $2.0 million on 28.4 bitcoin against $7.4 million a year earlier. Staking revenue was $1.0 million against $2.9 million, because Ether moved into liquid staking as collateral.
Price setup
The shares closed at $0.66 on 13 November 2026, a new 52-week closing low, after closing at $0.77 on 12 November 2026. The previous closing low was $0.71 on 5 November 2026. The 52-week intraday high is $2.79, set on 13 November 2025, and the last close is 76.3% below it.
The three-month change is −58.6%, from a close of $1.60 on 17 August 2026. The 50-day moving average is $1.25 and the 200-day moving average is $1.55, both far above the price. From 6 November to 12 November 2026 the shares closed between $0.73 and $0.79; the results on 12 November 2026 did not lift them, and the next session broke below that range.
Nasdaq's minimum-bid rule is triggered by 30 consecutive business days of closes under $1.00. The 12 November 2026 filings list no deficiency notice.
SEC Form 4 filings show the chief executive and chief financial officer each exercised options on 75,000 shares on 15 October 2026 and on 535,000 shares at $1.43 on 31 August 2026. The filings show option exercises, not open-market sales.
Catalysts ahead
- ~9 December 2026 (est.): Earliest date a Nasdaq minimum-bid deficiency could mature if every close since 28 October 2026 stayed under $1.00. Nasdaq's rule counts 30 consecutive business days; a company filing disclosing a notice would put the listing at risk.
- 30 June 2027 (est.): WhiteFiber's stated aim of $365 million annualized revenue by mid-2027, per call summaries. This is the operating target that supports the stake's value; it depends on NC-1 financing and new customer contracts.
What would change the view
A daily close above $1.08, the 15 October 2026 close, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500 again. Fourth-quarter consolidated cloud revenue above the $23.8 million second-quarter level would also show the shares leading.
What it trades with
Bit Digital consolidates WhiteFiber (Nasdaq: WYFI), so WhiteFiber's results and share price carry through to Bit Digital's cloud revenue, its stake value and its Ether collateral. The two tickers are largely one exposure.
The Ether treasury ties the shares to Ether prices and to flows into US spot Ether funds. Bitcoin mining is being wound down and contributes little revenue.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Third-quarter 2026 total revenue was $27.1 million, down 11% from $30.5 million a year earlier; cloud services $18.1 million, colocation $5.6 million, staking $1.0 million, mining $2.0 million. Bit Digital 8-K press release, third quarter 2026 results · as of
- Net income attributable to Bit Digital shareholders was $28.5 million, or $0.08 per diluted share, against a $107.2 million net loss in the second quarter of 2026. Bit Digital 8-K press release, third quarter 2026 results · as of
- Cash was about $143.5 million at 30 September 2026, of which about $5.0 million at Bit Digital and about $138.5 million at WhiteFiber; convertible notes, net, were $445.3 million. Bit Digital 8-K press release, third quarter 2026 results · as of
- Bit Digital held 27,043,750 WhiteFiber shares (59.7%), valued at about $487 million at $18.01 per share, and about 163,725.9 Ether valued at $439.4 million. Bit Digital 8-K press release, third quarter 2026 results · as of
- Remaining performance obligations were about $729.0 million, with $13.5 million expected in the rest of 2026, $235.1 million in 2027 and $206.9 million in 2028. Bit Digital 8-K press release, third quarter 2026 results · as of
- Free cash flow was negative $593 million over the four quarters to 30 September 2026 (operating cash flow $79 million, capital spending $672 million). Bit Digital 10-Q filed 12 November 2026 (SEC XBRL) · as of
- H.C. Wainwright maintained a Buy rating on Bit Digital and lowered its price target to $3.50 from $4. H.C. Wainwright note, news headline · as of
- Bit Digital closed at $0.66, its 52-week closing low and 76.3% below the 52-week intraday high of $2.79 set on 13 November 2025; the three-month change was −58.6%. Adjusted daily closes · as of
Sources
- Bit Digital, Inc - Form 8-K - FY2026 · sec.gov ·
- WhiteFiber, Inc. - Form 8-K - FY2026 · sec.gov ·
- WhiteFiber (WYFI) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript · fool.com ·
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