BTDR · Bitdeer Technologies Group
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $9.55
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
41.4% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $9.55, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 40.4% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $9.55, a level above the current 50-day average of adjusted closes, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500 and break this call.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Financials
Filed figures are not available: no quarterly report in US GAAP with the SEC (a foreign filer reports on Form 20-F or 40-F).
All filed numbers
What Bitdeer Technologies Group reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): the share of shares outstanding is not available, 6.4 days of average trading to cover, −1.8% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $0 |
| 12 monthsfrom | $447K | $0 |
The thesis
Bitdeer Technologies Group is more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. Cash was $213.7 million against about $1.95 billion of borrowings at 30 September 2026, and the Johor A201 site slipped to the second quarter of 2027. Delivery of Tydal Phase 1 in Norway by the end of the fourth quarter of 2026 settles whether the roughly $2.9 billion artificial-intelligence (AI) cloud backlog starts to convert into revenue.
The shares closed at $6.13 on 12 November 2026, after $7.03 on 11 November 2026 and a 52-week closing low of $5.31 on 5 November 2026. That close is 70.4% below the 52-week high of $20.72 (intraday, 3 June 2026) and below both the 50-day average of $9.46 and the 200-day average of $11.33. The three-month change is −32.9%.
The third-quarter report of 10 November 2026 showed a thin gross profit but no new contract. Both analysts who updated after the report, Barclays and Needham, kept positive ratings and cut their price targets on 11 November 2026.
Bullish and bearish views on Bitdeer Technologies Group
The bull case on Bitdeer Technologies Group (BTDR), in brief: gross margin turned positive. The bear case: Johor A201 slipped a quarter.
Bull case
- Gross margin turned positive. Third-quarter revenue was $320.7 million, up 89% from a year earlier and 40% from $228.8 million in the second quarter. Cost of revenues was $309.9 million, leaving a gross profit of $10.8 million (3.4% margin) after an $8.5 million gross loss in the second quarter (Bitdeer 6-K, 10 November 2026).
- Operating earnings rose. Adjusted EBITDA, earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization with company adjustments, was $69.6 million, up 173% from a year earlier and 124% from the second quarter (Bitdeer, 10 November 2026).
- Backlog is contracted. Bitdeer reported AI Cloud revenue backlog of about $2.9 billion, with Tydal Phase 1 (60.5 megawatts) still targeted for the fourth quarter of 2026 (Bitdeer, 10 November 2026).
- Bitcoin output keeps growing. Third-quarter production was 3,855 bitcoin against 1,109 a year earlier (Bitdeer, 10 November 2026). Mining cash flow supports the AI build.
- Analysts stay positive on lower targets. Needham maintained Buy and lowered its target to $18, and Barclays maintained Overweight and lowered its target to $14, both on 11 November 2026. Both targets sit well above the $6.13 close.
- An executive bought shares. Chief Strategy Officer Basit Haris Fozan bought 25,000 shares at $8.84 on 14 August 2026, filed on SEC Form 4 on 17 August 2026.
Bear case
- Johor A201 slipped a quarter. The 21.7-megawatt Johor Bahru site is now listed for the second quarter of 2027 instead of the first. The site carries more than $1.7 billion of five-year commitments (Bitdeer, 10 November 2026 and 19 October 2026).
- The net loss widened. The third-quarter net loss was $125.5 million against $30.1 million a year earlier, including a $54.6 million non-cash loss on the fair value of the digital assets loan (Bitdeer, 10 November 2026).
- Cash fell as debt rose. Cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash were $213.7 million at 30 September 2026 against $496.3 million at 30 June 2026. Total borrowings were about $1.95 billion against $1.8 billion at mid-year (Bitdeer, 10 November 2026 and 10 August 2026).
- Equity issuance continued. Bitdeer took $58.0 million of net at-the-market equity proceeds in the third quarter and repurchased no shares, although a $100 million buyback was announced on 8 October 2026 (Bitdeer, 10 November 2026).
- Adjusted earnings per share missed. The adjusted loss was $0.38 per share against $0.34 expected, while sales of $320.7 million beat the $256.3 million estimate (Benzinga, 10 November 2026).
- The post-report rebound reversed. The shares closed at $7.03 on 11 November 2026 and at $6.13 on 12 November 2026, back near the 52-week closing low of $5.31.
Price setup
The 52-week closing low is $5.31 (5 November 2026). The shares then closed at $6.01 on 6 November 2026, $6.61 on 9 November 2026, $6.41 on 10 November 2026, $7.03 on 11 November 2026 and $6.13 on 12 November 2026. Closes in this range sit far below the 50-day average of $9.46 and the 200-day average of $11.33.
The market already prices in the delay at Johor and the funding gap. The shares are down 32.9% from the $9.13 close of 14 August 2026, and the closing low of 5 November 2026 came five days before the third-quarter report.
Supply is the other pressure point. CEO Jihan Wu held roughly a quarter of the 243.31 million shares as of 7 August 2026, which limits the float. A $1 billion securities registration and the third-quarter at-the-market sales mean new shares can reach the market without a new filing.
Catalysts ahead
- ~17 November 2026 (est.): October 2026 production and operations update. Shows whether AI Cloud annual recurring revenue moves above the roughly $86 million reported for August and September and whether utilization holds near 95%.
- ~31 December 2026 (est.): End of the fourth quarter of 2026, the target quarter for Tydal Phase 1 (60.5 megawatts) delivery. First point at which contracted Tydal revenue can start to be recognised.
- ~31 March 2027 (est.): Cyberjaya A102 energization (9.5 megawatts), guided for the first quarter of 2027. Begins converting Malaysian backlog into revenue; the Johor A201 site is now guided one quarter later, for the second quarter of 2027.
What would change the view
A daily close above $9.55, a level above the current 50-day average of adjusted closes, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500 and break this call.
What it trades with
Bitdeer trades with listed bitcoin miners that have turned to AI hosting. On 14 October 2026 TeraWulf, Core Scientific, Cipher Mining and IREN fell 12.2% to 12.6% after US consumer prices rose 3.7% from a year earlier against 3.6% expected (cryptonews.net).
A hot inflation print or a lasting fall in the bitcoin price would weigh on the shares whatever the contract news. Graphics-processor supply also matters: Bitdeer ordered over 100 Nvidia GB300 NVL72 racks ahead of the Johor energization (Bitdeer, 10 November 2026).
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Third-quarter 2026 revenue $320.7 million (up 89% from a year earlier), cost of revenues $309.9 million, gross profit $10.8 million (3.4% margin) versus an $8.5 million gross loss in the second quarter. Bitdeer third-quarter 2026 results, 6-K exhibit 99.1 · as of
- Third-quarter 2026 net loss $125.5 million including a $54.6 million non-cash loss on the digital assets loan; adjusted EBITDA $69.6 million. Bitdeer third-quarter 2026 results, 6-K exhibit 99.1 · as of
- Cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash $213.7 million and total borrowings about $1.95 billion at 30 September 2026. Bitdeer third-quarter 2026 results, 6-K exhibit 99.1 · as of
- AI Cloud revenue backlog about $2.9 billion; Johor Bahru 21.7-megawatt site energization listed for the second quarter of 2027, Cyberjaya 9.5 megawatts for the first quarter of 2027, Tydal Phase 1 for the fourth quarter of 2026. Bitdeer third-quarter 2026 results, 6-K exhibit 99.1 · as of
- Net at-the-market equity proceeds of $58.0 million in the third quarter of 2026 and no share repurchases in the quarter. Bitdeer third-quarter 2026 results, 6-K exhibit 99.1 · as of
- Third-quarter 2026 bitcoin production was 3,855 against 1,109 a year earlier. Bitdeer third-quarter 2026 results, 6-K exhibit 99.1 · as of
- Needham maintained Buy and lowered its price target to $18; Barclays maintained Overweight and lowered its price target to $14. Analyst rating actions reported 11 November 2026 · as of
- Chief Strategy Officer Basit Haris Fozan made an open-market purchase of 25,000 shares at $8.84 on 14 August 2026. SEC Form 4 filed 17 August 2026 · as of
Sources
- Bitdeer Technologies Group - Form 6-K - FY2026 · sec.gov ·
- Bitdeer reports record Q3 revenue as net loss widens to $125.5 million · theblock.co ·
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