ZENA · ZenaTech
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $0.86
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
30.8% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $0.8600, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 71.0% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $0.86, the level that would recover most of the slide from the start of November and show the shares leading. A third-quarter revenue figure above the C$14.8 million top of the company's preliminary range would point the same way.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Technology
Filed figures are not available: no quarterly report in US GAAP with the SEC (a foreign filer reports on Form 20-F or 40-F).
All filed numbers
What ZenaTech reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): the share of shares outstanding is not available, 5.6 days of average trading to cover, +6.4% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $0 |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $0 |
The thesis
ZenaTech's drone-survey business is growing quickly, but the shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. The company is selling new stock into a falling price under a $150 million at-the-market program, and the shares sit under Nasdaq's $1.00 minimum bid price. The full third-quarter report decides whether revenue and cash outrun the dilution.
The shares closed at $0.63 on 12 November 2026, the 52-week closing low, against a 52-week intraday high of $5.17 on 22 January 2026. The 3-month change is –70.7%. The 50-day average is $1.18 and the 200-day average is $1.77, both well above the last close. The last reported sale price in the company's 8 October 2026 prospectus supplement was $1.35 on 7 October 2026.
Preliminary third-quarter revenue of C$13.4 million to C$14.8 million (about US$9.5 million to US$10.5 million), issued on 13 October 2026, is already known. The open questions are how much of it was acquired, how much cash the quarter consumed and how many shares were issued at prices under $1.00. The company has not announced a date for the full report. Its second-quarter results came on 29 September 2026, so the third-quarter report may not arrive until late December.
Price already reflects: the shares have fallen to a 52-week closing low of $0.63 on 12 November 2026, so the market is pricing continued share issuance rather than the revenue growth the company reports.
Bullish and bearish views on ZenaTech, Inc.
The bull case on ZenaTech, Inc. (ZENA), in brief: revenue is compounding. The bear case: new shares are sold into the decline.
Bull case
- Revenue is compounding. ZenaTech's 29 September 2026 release reports second-quarter revenue of C$9.3 million, up 316% from a year earlier, with Drone as a Service at C$8.6 million. First-half revenue was C$17.7 million, up 425%.
- Preliminary third quarter is well above the second. The company's 13 October 2026 release puts third-quarter revenue at C$13.4 million to C$14.8 million, against C$9.3 million in the second quarter.
- Older locations grow organically. The same release says locations acquired in 2025 averaged 27.1% organic revenue growth in 2026.
- Management names a profit target. The 26 October 2026 release targets adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) breakeven in 2027, subject to revenue execution, acquisition integration costs, supply chain conditions and spending control.
- Contract announcements keep coming. On 10 November 2026 ZenaTech announced three construction survey contracts on government transportation projects in the Mid-Atlantic worth about $503,000. On 4 November 2026 it announced nearly US$1 million of survey contracts for an unnamed US utility's solar construction project.
- Analysts sit far above the market. MarketBeat listed four analysts rating the shares Hold, with an average 12-month target of $4.50 (range $4.00 to $5.00) on 10 October 2026.
Bear case
- New shares are sold into the decline. ZenaTech's 8 October 2026 prospectus supplement raised its at-the-market program, with Maxim Group and Northland Securities as sales agents, from $75 million to $150 million. About 29,744,407 shares had raised about $57 million at that date. At lower prices, the same dollars require more shares.
- The share count is already large. The prospectus supplement shows 201,157,883 shares outstanding on 7 October 2026 and estimates 269,989,557 after the program if 68,831,674 more shares are sold.
- The price is under Nasdaq's minimum. Every close from 5 November to 12 November 2026 was between $0.63 and $0.70. Nasdaq issues a deficiency notice after 30 consecutive business days under $1.00. Searches on 13 November 2026 found no such notice.
- Losses are large against cash. The second-quarter net loss was $22.5 million, against cash of $12.2 million and cash plus marketable securities of $34.6 million at 30 June 2026 (ZenaTech release, 29 September 2026).
- Announcements are widening, with no terms. On 12 November 2026 ZenaTech announced a memorandum of understanding with Rattler Medical on a drone-based battlefield blood delivery system, terms not disclosed. On 10 November 2026 it launched a ZenaStudios entertainment division. Neither carries a stated revenue figure.
- The defense product timeline slipped. Benzinga reported on 6 October 2026 that flight testing of the ZenaDrone 2000 counter-drone interceptor prototype is now expected in the first quarter of 2027.
Price setup
The shares closed at $0.63 on 12 November 2026, down from $0.70 on 10 November 2026 and $0.68 on 11 November 2026. That is below every close in the week since 5 November 2026 ($0.65, $0.64, $0.66, $0.70, $0.68). The week of contract and partnership announcements did not lift the shares.
The 50-day average of $1.18 and the 200-day average of $1.77 both sit far above the last close. The 52-week closing low and the last close are the same day, so no lower price has yet been tested. With an at-the-market program open, supply can continue at any price.
ZenaTech is a foreign private issuer, so US Section 16 Form 4 insider reports do not apply. The company's latest annual report (Form 20-F, filed 29 April 2026) covers the period ended 31 December 2025.
Catalysts ahead
- ~31 December 2026 (est.): Full third-quarter 2026 results; the company has not announced a date, and its second-quarter results came on 29 September 2026. Shows whether revenue lands in the C$13.4 million to C$14.8 million range, how much is acquired, how much cash remains and how many shares were issued.
- ~31 December 2026 (est.): Filings disclosing at-the-market share sales under the $150 million program. The amount sold and the prices received show how much dilution the company takes at prices under $1.00.
- ~31 March 2027 (est.): Company guidance puts the start of ZenaDrone 2000 counter-drone interceptor flight testing in the first quarter of 2027. The defense case needs products to reach testing; the timeline moved to 2027 on 6 October 2026.
What would change the view
A daily close above $0.86, the level that would recover most of the slide from the start of November and show the shares leading. A third-quarter revenue figure above the C$14.8 million top of the company's preliminary range would point the same way.
What it trades with
ZenaTech trades with small-cap drone and defense-technology shares. On 14 August 2026 Benzinga reported drone stocks rallying after the White House proclamation of drone tariffs, with Ondas, Draganfly and Red Cat named. Since then the shares have moved on the company's own financing and listing position more than on that group.
The business reports mainly in Canadian dollars, so currency moves affect the US dollar equivalents it quotes.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Second-quarter 2026 revenue was C$9.3 million, up 316% from a year earlier; Drone as a Service revenue was C$8.6 million; first-half revenue was C$17.7 million, up 425%. ZenaTech release, 29 September 2026 · as of
- Cash was $12.2 million at 30 June 2026 and cash plus marketable securities totaled $34.6 million; the second-quarter net loss was $22.5 million. ZenaTech second-quarter 2026 release · as of
- Preliminary third-quarter 2026 revenue is C$13.4 million to C$14.8 million (about US$9.5 million to US$10.5 million); locations acquired in 2025 averaged 27.1% organic revenue growth in 2026. ZenaTech release, Exhibit 99.5 to Form 6-K · as of
- The at-the-market program rose from $75 million to $150 million; about 29,744,407 shares have raised about $57 million, and 201,157,883 shares were outstanding on 7 October 2026; the last reported sale price was $1.35 on 7 October 2026. ZenaTech Form 424B5 prospectus supplement, 8 October 2026 · as of
- ZenaTech targets adjusted EBITDA breakeven in 2027, subject to revenue execution, acquisition integration costs, supply chain conditions and spending control. ZenaTech release, 26 October 2026 · as of
- ZenaTech announced three construction survey contracts on Mid-Atlantic government transportation infrastructure projects worth about $503,000, and launched a ZenaStudios entertainment division. ZenaTech company news, 10 November 2026 · as of
- ZenaDrone announced a memorandum of understanding with Rattler Medical to develop a drone-based battlefield blood delivery system; terms not disclosed. ZenaTech company news, 12 November 2026 · as of
- Four analysts rate the shares Hold on average with an average 12-month target of $4.50 (range $4.00 to $5.00). MarketBeat consensus page · as of
Sources