ARIS · Aris Mining
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $18.01
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
18.0% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $18.01, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 18.5% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $18.01, over the 50-day and 200-day averages and the October rebound area, would show the shares leading again. A confirmed Marmato first pour in December 2026 with 2026 output held at or above 300,000 ounces would point the same way.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Catalyst
Key figures from the filings · Materials
Filed figures are not available: no quarterly report in US GAAP with the SEC (a foreign filer reports on Form 20-F or 40-F).
All filed numbers
What Aris Mining reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): the share of shares outstanding is not available, 3.2 days of average trading to cover, −3.7% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $0 |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $0 |
The thesis
Aris Mining Corporation's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. The 4 November 2026 Q3 results missed estimates on higher costs, and 2026 output is aimed at the low end of the 300,000–350,000 ounce guidance. A first gold pour from Marmato's new carbon-in-pulp (CIP) plant, guided for December 2026, settles whether the expansion case holds.
The shares closed at $15.53 on 11 November 2026, 33.3% below the 52-week intraday high of $23.29 set on 27 February 2026, and down 10.7% over three months. The 50-day average is $17.44 and the 200-day average is $17.78, both above the last close.
A reserve update on 10 November 2026 gave the case a real positive. Segovia proven and probable reserves rose 28% to 1.9 million ounces, at a grade of 13.3 grams per tonne, up from 10.7 (company release, 10 November 2026). The shares closed at $15.92 that day, down from $16.64 on 9 November 2026.
Bullish and bearish views on Aris Mining Corporation
The bull case on Aris Mining Corporation (ARIS), in brief: Segovia reserves grew sharply. The bear case: results missed estimates.
Bull case
- Segovia reserves grew sharply. Reserves rose to 1.9 million ounces from 1.5 million, a net gain of 418,000 ounces after mining, and the reserve estimate assumes a gold price of $2,800 per ounce (company release, 10 November 2026). Q3 realized gold was $4,205 per ounce.
- First gold date is specific. The Q3 results release of 4 November 2026 expects the Marmato CIP first pour in December 2026.
- Cash funds the build. Cash was $419 million at 30 September 2026 after $144 million of Q3 capital investment, of which $86 million went to Marmato and $41 million to Segovia (4 November 2026 release).
- Earnings were positive. Q3 net earnings were $67 million, or $0.32 per share, and adjusted EBITDA was $144 million. Nine-month production was 217.3 thousand ounces, up 16% year on year (4 November 2026 release).
- Segovia costs sit at the low end of guidance. Year-to-date Segovia owner-mining AISC was $1,729 per ounce against $1,700–1,800 guidance (4 November 2026 release).
Bear case
- Results missed estimates. Adjusted earnings were $0.35 per share against a $0.50 estimate, and sales were $287.42 million against $297.0 million (Benzinga, 4 November 2026).
- Costs rose. Combined Q3 all-in sustaining cost (AISC) was $2,174 per ounce, against $1,974 for the first half of 2026. Year-to-date combined AISC was $2,039 per ounce (4 November 2026 release).
- Realized gold price fell. Q3 sales averaged $4,205 per ounce, against $4,450 in Q2 (4 November 2026 release and 29 July 2026 results). Lower prices and higher costs together narrow margins.
- Output tracks the low end of guidance. Year-to-date production of 217.3 thousand ounces sits against a 300,000–350,000 ounce range, and the company is targeting the lower end (4 November 2026 release).
- Marmato ramp is slow. The company expects about 4,000 tonnes per day by mid-2027 and 5,000 by end-2027, after the paste backfill plant is commissioned. The release gives no remaining Marmato capital total.
- Reserve-area permit risk. The Soto Norte Temporary Reserve Area expires on 4 March 2027, after an August 2026 extension was revoked and then restored (4 November 2026 release).
Price setup
The shares closed at $15.53 on 11 November 2026. Over the six sessions from 4 November to 11 November 2026 they closed between $15.28 (5 November 2026) and $16.64 (9 November 2026), so the post-earnings range has held above the 52-week closing low of $10.96 set on 11 November 2025.
Both the 50-day average ($17.44) and the 200-day average ($17.78) sit above the last close, and the shares closed at $17.40 on 13 August 2026, the three-month reference. The market price already reflects a missed quarter and low-end output guidance: the larger reserve estimate of 10 November 2026 did not lift the close.
No SEC Form 4 insider filings are listed; the filings on file are a 6-K dated 10 November 2026 and the annual 40-F dated 11 March 2026.
Catalysts ahead
- ~30 November 2026 (est.): Toroparu prefeasibility study with a first mineral reserve estimate, expected later in November 2026. Informs a possible Toroparu construction decision in early 2027, a growth option beyond Marmato.
- ~31 December 2026 (est.): Marmato CIP plant first gold pour, guided for December 2026. Confirms the expansion schedule; a slip into 2027 would break the stated timetable and weaken the ramp to 5,000 tonnes per day.
- 4 March 2027: Soto Norte Temporary Reserve Area expiry. The area's status was revoked and restored in August 2026; the renewal outcome affects Marmato's longer-term mine plan.
- ~31 March 2027 (est.): Updated NI 43-101 technical report for Marmato, scheduled for the first quarter of 2027. Sets the engineering and reserve basis for the Marmato expansion.
What would change the view
A daily close above $18.01, over the 50-day and 200-day averages and the October rebound area, would show the shares leading again. A confirmed Marmato first pour in December 2026 with 2026 output held at or above 300,000 ounces would point the same way.
What it trades with
Aris sells gold, so the realized price drives revenue: $4,205 per ounce in Q3 against $4,450 in Q2. Gold direction therefore matters alongside company execution.
Both producing mines are in Colombia, so permitting, security and country-level risk apply to the whole company. Aris lists in Toronto and New York, and levels here refer to the U.S. line.
The evidence, claim by claim (7)
- Q3 2026 gold revenue was $287 million at an average realized price of $4,205 per ounce; net earnings were $67 million ($0.32 per share) and adjusted EBITDA was $144 million. Aris Mining Q3 2026 results (Form 6-K) · as of
- Combined Q3 all-in sustaining cost (AISC) was $2,174 per ounce; year-to-date combined AISC was $2,039 per ounce. Aris Mining Q3 2026 results (Form 6-K) · as of
- Adjusted EPS of $0.35 missed the $0.50 estimate; sales of $287.42 million missed the $297.0 million estimate. Benzinga · as of
- Company is targeting the lower end of 2026 production guidance of 300,000–350,000 ounces; year-to-date production was 217.3 thousand ounces. Aris Mining Q3 2026 results (Form 6-K) · as of
- Marmato carbon-in-pulp (CIP) plant first gold pour expected in December 2026; about 4,000 tonnes per day by mid-2027 and 5,000 by end-2027. Aris Mining Q3 2026 results (Form 6-K) · as of
- Segovia proven and probable reserves rose 28% to 1.9 million ounces at 13.3 g/t gold (from 1.5 million ounces at 10.7 g/t), using a $2,800 per ounce gold price assumption; net of mining, reserves grew by 418,000 ounces. Aris Mining reserve release (via Finviz) · as of
- Cash was $419 million at 30 September 2026 after $144 million of Q3 capital investment ($86 million Marmato, $41 million Segovia). Aris Mining Q3 2026 results (Form 6-K) · as of
Sources
- Aris Mining Corp - Form 6-K - FY2026 · sec.gov ·
- Finviz ·
- Aris Mining Q3 Revenue Hits $287 Million Amid Marmato Expansion · panabee.com