TGTX · TG Therapeutics
Conviction · Medium · more likely to lead the S&P 500 over the next three months, by a modest margin
Wrong if: a daily close below $57.98
Note written ·
How this view changed
- · Rating raised from Low to Medium. Results, 9 November 2026: TG Therapeutics reported third-quarter revenue of $259.9 million and raised 2026 US BRIUMVI net revenue guidance to $915–920 million from $890–905 million, and global revenue guidance to about $1 billion.
Price against the kill line
11.3% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
The red mark is the price level of the published kill line: a close through it (a weekly close, on a weekly line) would prove the research note wrong on price. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026; a dot left of the mark has closed through its line.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close below $57.98, set on 12 November 2026. The shares are up 30.9% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close below $57.98, the 5 November 2026 close, which would erase the post-report gain; or full-year 2026 US BRIUMVI net revenue below $915 million, or a subcutaneous BRIUMVI Phase 3 primary-endpoint miss.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Health Care
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 9 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 260
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +60.7
- Gross margin (%)
- 83.8
- Operating margin (%)
- 33.0
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 85.6
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- −189
- Price to earnings (×)
- 91.9
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 11.1
All filed numbers
What TG Therapeutics reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 260 | +60.7 | 83.8 | 33.0 |
| first filed | 240 | +70.3 | 82.9 | 9.0 |
| first filed | 205 | +69.6 | 83.6 | 17.0 |
| first filed | 193 | +78.0 | 80.2 | 26.2 |
| first filed | 162 | +92.8 | 82.6 | 18.2 |
| first filed | 141 | +92.1 | 86.6 | 24.7 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 73.9 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 106 | 55.5 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | −3.2 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 86.3 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 0.7 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 85.6 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 557 |
| Debt ($M) non-current long-term debt | 746 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | −189 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) | 33.2 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 417 |
| Inventory ($M) | 194 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 572 |
| Market value ($M) | 9,751 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 9,940 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 11.1 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | 51.5 |
| Price to earnings (×) | 91.9 |
| Price to book value (×) | 17.0 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 0.9 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 19.6% of shares outstanding sold short, 18.9 days of average trading to cover, −3.4% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $275K |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $438K |
The thesis
TG Therapeutics' shares are rated modestly more likely than not to beat the S&P 500 over the next three months. On 9 November 2026 the company beat third-quarter estimates and raised its 2026 guidance for BRIUMVI, its multiple-sclerosis drug. Two things settle the call: fourth-quarter US sales, which have to speed up to meet the new guide, and the subcutaneous BRIUMVI Phase 3 topline, guided for year-end 2026 or the first quarter of 2027.
The company's 8-K reported third-quarter total revenue of $259.9 million, against $161.7 million a year earlier. US BRIUMVI net product revenue was $232.6 million, about 52% above the year-earlier quarter. The company raised its full-year US BRIUMVI target to about $915–920 million from $890–905 million, and its total global revenue target to about $1 billion from about $950 million.
The weak point is the sequence. US BRIUMVI grew from $227.7 million in the second quarter to $232.6 million in the third. A Biotech Catalyst Calendar analysis published 10 November 2026 put that growth at about 2%, after 17% in the second quarter. The same analysis calculates that the raised guide implies fourth-quarter US sales of $259.9–264.9 million, 12% to 14% above the third quarter.
The price has already absorbed the raise. The shares closed at $65.76 on 11 November 2026, up from $59.83 before the report and 3.3% below the $68.03 intraday 52-week high set on 10 November 2026. On 10 November 2026 Evercore ISI kept its Outperform rating but lowered its target to $71.
Bullish and bearish views on TG Therapeutics, Inc.
The bull case on TG Therapeutics, Inc. (TGTX), in brief: guidance went up, not just held. The bear case: third-quarter sequential growth slowed sharply.
Bull case
- Guidance went up, not just held. The 9 November 2026 release lifted the full-year US BRIUMVI range to $915–920 million and global revenue to about $1 billion. Third-quarter revenue of $259.94 million beat the $245.5 million consensus Benzinga cited on the day.
- Demand indicators were at record levels in October. On the 9 November 2026 call, Chief Commercial Officer Adam Waldman cited a record month for prescribers in October and a record week of new-patient enrollments into the support hub. He said treatment-naive patients are about 40% of new starts, up from about 25% at launch (Biotech Catalyst Calendar, 10 November 2026).
- Profits now fund buybacks. Third-quarter net income was $55.5 million, or $0.35 per diluted share (8-K, 9 November 2026). The company bought back about $100 million of stock in the quarter, roughly 2.0 million shares at an average of $49.43, bringing cumulative repurchases to $300 million.
- The product plan runs past 2026. The company guides a simplified intravenous starting dose potentially in mid-2027 and a subcutaneous launch potentially in 2028 (8-K, 9 November 2026). It also has Phase 2 trials under way in myasthenia gravis and treatment-resistant schizophrenia.
- Comparative data supports the sales pitch. On 12 October 2026 the company reported a five-year matching-adjusted indirect comparison. It showed BRIUMVI with 44% lower risk of disability progression than ocrelizumab and 49% lower than ofatumumab.
Bear case
- Third-quarter sequential growth slowed sharply. US BRIUMVI rose from $227.7 million in the second quarter to $232.6 million in the third. The guide now depends on a steeper fourth-quarter ramp than the third quarter showed.
- Net pricing faces pressure. On the 9 November 2026 call, management said payer mix, government discounts and contracting will keep weighing on gross-to-net revenue, partly offset by price increases (Biotech Catalyst Calendar, 10 November 2026).
- Revenue is concentrated in one product. US BRIUMVI was $232.6 million of $259.9 million total third-quarter revenue (8-K, 9 November 2026). The about $1 billion global target includes projected payments from the company's international partner (Seeking Alpha, 9 November 2026).
- Cash fell as buybacks continued. Cash, cash equivalents and investment securities fell to $556.7 million at 30 September 2026 from $612.3 million at 30 June 2026. Full-year operating expense guidance of about $450–500 million, excluding non-cash compensation, was reaffirmed.
- Analyst targets sit close to the price. Evercore ISI's $71 target, lowered on 10 November 2026, is about 8% above the 11 November 2026 close.
- A director sold shares. An SEC Form 4 filed 14 September 2026 shows director Laurence N. Charney selling 5,000 shares in the open market at $54.96 on 10 September 2026.
Price setup
The shares closed at $65.76 on 11 November 2026. The 50-day moving average is $56.39 and the 200-day moving average is $45.03, both as of that close. The three-month change is 37.2%, measured from the $47.94 close of 13 August 2026.
The report moved the shares to a new high. The close was $59.83 on 6 November 2026, the last session before the report, then $63.38 on 9 November 2026 and $64.26 on 10 November 2026. The intraday 52-week high of $68.03 was set on 10 November 2026. The prior closing high was $61.63 on 4 November 2026.
The 52-week closing low is $26.94, from 12 March 2026, so the shares have more than doubled since March. With the price near its high and the 50-day average about $9 below it, the next test is whether the shares hold the post-report gain into the subcutaneous readout.
Catalysts ahead
- ~31 December 2026 (est.): Subcutaneous BRIUMVI Phase 3 topline (guided year-end 2026 or Q1 2027). Shows whether the subcutaneous form meets its exposure non-inferiority endpoint, which underpins the potential 2028 launch.
- ~11 January 2027 (est.): J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference week; any preliminary 2026 BRIUMVI revenue update from the company. A preliminary full-year figure would show whether fourth-quarter US sales reached the $915–920M guide.
- ~26 February 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 results. Confirms whether US BRIUMVI sales sped up from the third quarter, and sets 2027 guidance.
What would change the view
A daily close below $57.98, the 5 November 2026 close, which would erase the post-report gain; or full-year 2026 US BRIUMVI net revenue below $915 million, or a subcutaneous BRIUMVI Phase 3 primary-endpoint miss.
The risks this note tracks, each with what would confirm it:
- The fourth-quarter ramp falls short of the raised US BRIUMVI guide. Confirmed by: full-year 2026 US BRIUMVI net revenue below $915M, or a preliminary figure under that level.
- Gross-to-net pressure from payer mix, government discounts and contracting slows net revenue growth. Confirmed by: fourth-quarter US BRIUMVI sequential growth in low single digits again, with management citing deeper discounts.
- Subcutaneous BRIUMVI fails to extend the dosing-convenience argument. Confirmed by: the Phase 3 topline misses its prespecified exposure non-inferiority endpoint, or the readout slips past Q1 2027.
- Spending and buybacks erode the cash position. Confirmed by: operating expenses above the $450–500M full-year guide, or cash and investments falling well below $556.7M without matching revenue gains.
- Analysts see little room above the current price. Confirmed by: more price-target cuts after the 10 November 2026 Evercore ISI cut to $71, with targets moving below the share price.
What it trades with
TG Therapeutics trades mainly on its own BRIUMVI sales and trial news. Sector moves matter less. Its closest commercial reference points are the anti-CD20 multiple-sclerosis drugs named in the 12 October 2026 comparison: Roche's ocrelizumab and Novartis's ofatumumab. Like other mid-cap biotech shares, it is exposed to swings in investor appetite for the biotech sector. No measured correlation figure is cited here.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Q3 2026 total revenue $259.9M vs $161.7M a year earlier; US BRIUMVI net product revenue $232.6M, about 52% above Q3 2025. TG Therapeutics Q3 2026 results release (8-K) · as of
- 2026 US BRIUMVI net revenue guidance raised to about $915–920M from $890–905M; total global revenue guidance raised to about $1B from about $950M. TG Therapeutics Q3 2026 results release (8-K) · as of
- Q3 2026 net income $55.5M, diluted EPS $0.35; R&D $51.3M and SG&A $80.7M. TG Therapeutics Q3 2026 results release (8-K) · as of
- Cash, cash equivalents and investment securities $556.7M at 30 September 2026; about $100M repurchased in Q3 (about 2.0M shares at $49.43 average), $300M cumulative. TG Therapeutics Q3 2026 results release (8-K) · as of
- US BRIUMVI net revenue was $194.8M in Q1, $227.7M in Q2 and $232.6M in Q3 2026; the raised guide implies Q4 US sales of $259.9–264.9M. Biotech Catalyst Calendar analysis of company filings · as of
- Evercore ISI maintained Outperform on TG Therapeutics and lowered its price target to $71. Evercore ISI rating action, reported by Benzinga · as of
- Director Laurence N. Charney sold 5,000 shares in the open market at $54.96 on 10 September 2026. SEC Form 4 filed 14 September 2026 · as of
- Five-year matching-adjusted indirect comparison: BRIUMVI 44% lower risk of disability progression vs ocrelizumab and 49% vs ofatumumab. TG Therapeutics release · as of
Sources
- TG THERAPEUTICS, INC. - Form 8-K - FY2026 · sec.gov ·
- TG Therapeutics ($TGTX) Q3 2026: outlook to $1B, Q4 carries the year · biotechcatalystcalendar.substack.com ·
- TG Therapeutics targets $1B 2026 global revenue as it plans mid-2027 simplified IV dosing and 2028 subcu launch · seekingalpha.com
- TG THERAPEUTICS, INC. - Form 8-K - FY2026 · sec.gov ·
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