TBI · Trueblue
Conviction · Medium · more likely to lead the S&P 500 over the next three months, by a modest margin
Wrong if: a daily close below $10.85
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
14.4% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
The red mark is the price level of the published kill line: a close through it (a weekly close, on a weekly line) would prove the research note wrong on price. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026; a dot left of the mark has closed through its line.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close below $10.85, on record since 10 November 2026. The shares are up 24.8% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close below $10.85, the highest close before the 4 November 2026 report, which would put the shares back under their pre-report high. A fourth-quarter gross margin under the 19.8% low end of the outlook, or a return to a GAAP loss, would add to the break.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Industrials
Quarter to 27 September 2026, filed 4 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 521
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +20.7
- Gross margin (%)
- 20.5
- Operating margin (%)
- 2.3
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- −72.3
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- −82.5
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 0.3
- Free-cash-flow yield (%)
- −19.1
All filed numbers
What Trueblue reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 521 | +20.7 | 20.5 | 2.3 |
| first filed | 443 | +11.8 | 20.7 | −0.3 |
| first filed | 399 | +7.6 | 19.8 | −4.5 |
| first filed | 418 | +8.3 | 21.5 | −7.0 |
| first filed | 431 | +12.8 | 22.7 | 0.0 |
| first filed | 396 | 0.0 | 23.6 | −0.7 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 10.3 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: −45.5 | 9.2 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 28 September 2025 | +9.2 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | −60.8 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 11.5 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | −72.3 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 19.8 |
| Debt ($M) non-current long-term debt | 102 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | −82.5 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) | Not reported |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 327 |
| Inventory ($M) | Not reported |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 267 |
| Market value ($M) | 378 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 461 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 0.3 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to book value (×) | 1.4 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | −19.1 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 1.4% of shares outstanding sold short, 2.1 days of average trading to cover, −34.9% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $170K |
| 12 monthsfrom | $149K | $185K |
The thesis
TrueBlue's staffing recovery is in reported results, and the shares are more likely than not to beat the S&P 500 over the next three months. Third-quarter revenue of $520.7 million topped the company's $461–481 million outlook, and the fourth-quarter outlook of $499–519 million sits above the $441.1 million analyst estimate Benzinga cited. The fourth-quarter report, expected in late February 2027, shows whether gross margin and cash flow keep pace with growth.
TrueBlue reported on 4 November 2026 after the market closed. Revenue rose 20.7% from $431.3 million a year earlier. PeopleReady, its blue-collar temporary-labor unit, grew 34.4% to $338.0 million against a management outlook of 11%–15% (10-Q for the quarter ended 27 September 2026). Net income was $9.2 million, or $0.28 per diluted share, against a net loss of $1.9 million a year earlier. Benzinga put adjusted earnings per share at $0.33 against a $0.19 estimate.
The shares rose 21.95% in the regular session on 5 November 2026 (Benzinga mover list). They closed at $12.35 on 12 November 2026, up 20.7% over three months, and have held between $12.15 and $12.68 at the close in the six sessions since the report. The 52-week intraday high is $13.59, set on 5 November 2026.
The market has priced in the beat and a large part of the guidance: the shares trade well above the 50-day average of $9.6 and the 200-day average of $7.07, both as of 12 November 2026.
Bullish and bearish views on Trueblue, Inc.
The bull case on Trueblue, Inc. (TBI), in brief: revenue beat the outlook by a wide margin. The bear case: gross margin fell as growth rose.
Bull case
- Revenue beat the outlook by a wide margin. Third-quarter revenue was $520.7 million against management's August outlook of $461–481 million and a $455.7 million analyst estimate (Benzinga, 4 November 2026). The fourth-quarter outlook of $499–519 million implies the pace continues.
- PeopleReady growth far exceeded the outlook. Segment revenue reached $338.0 million, up 34.4%, led by energy-related skilled work. Nine-month PeopleReady revenue was $825.3 million, up 26.2% (10-Q, 4 November 2026).
- GAAP profit has arrived. Net income of $9.2 million follows a $3.4 million net loss in the second quarter and a $19.8 million net loss in the first quarter of 2026. Adjusted earnings per share of $0.33 compares with $0.03 a year earlier (finsee.ai review, 5 November 2026).
- Liquidity rose despite heavier borrowing. Total liquidity was $86.2 million at 27 September 2026, including $66.5 million of unused borrowing capacity, against $79 million at the end of the second quarter (10-Q). The $175 million revolving credit facility matures 9 February 2029, and the company reported compliance with its terms.
- Revenue guidance sits above analyst estimates. The fourth-quarter sales outlook of $499–519 million compares with a $441.149 million estimate (Benzinga, 4 November 2026). Estimate revisions after the report would show whether analysts move toward the company.
Bear case
- Gross margin fell as growth rose. Gross margin was 20.5% against 22.7% a year earlier, on gross profit of $107.0 million, up 9.3% (10-Q, 4 November 2026). finsee.ai attributes the drop to lower-margin energy pass-through costs.
- Fourth-quarter margin outlook is lower. finsee.ai reports a fourth-quarter gross margin outlook of 19.8%–20.2%, below the 20.5% just reported. Revenue growth is not yet producing proportionate gross profit.
- Growth sits in one segment. PeopleManagement grew 1.9% to $135.4 million and PeopleSolutions grew 0.9% to $47.4 million (10-Q). PeopleReady's energy-related work drives the beat.
- Cash flow was negative. finsee.ai shows operating cash flow of negative $26.1 million and free cash flow of negative $28.3 million for the quarter. Revolver debt rose to $102.3 million from $82 million at the end of the second quarter, and cash was $19.8 million.
- An executive sold shares after the jump. Garrett Ferencz, executive vice president and chief legal officer, sold 14,214 shares on the open market at an average of $11.96 on 9 November to 10 November 2026 (SEC Form 4, filed 12 November 2026). Other recent Form 4 filings are tax withholdings on share awards and a director grant.
- The covenant structure changes. The 10-Q says a minimum excess availability covenant is replaced by a springing fixed charge coverage ratio covenant starting in the fiscal fourth quarter of 2026.
Price setup
The shares closed at $12.35 on 12 November 2026, 9.1% below the 52-week intraday high of $13.59 from 5 November 2026. The 3-month reference close was $10.23 on 14 August 2026. The 52-week closing low is $3.31 on 27 March 2026.
Closes since the report: $12.36 on 5 November 2026, $12.15 on 6 November 2026 and 9 November 2026, $12.68 on 10 November 2026 and $12.50 on 11 November 2026. The highest close before the report was $10.85, in adjusted closes through 22 October 2026, when the shares were trading near $8.82. The shares have held above that level every session since the report.
Both moving averages as of 12 November 2026 trail the price: $9.6 for the 50-day and $7.07 for the 200-day. The 60-month beta was 1.60 on 11 August 2026, so moves of this size can reverse quickly around earnings or labor data.
Catalysts ahead
- ~4 December 2026 (est.): U.S. November Employment Situation report. Temporary-help employment gives a sector demand check on the staffing recovery.
- ~27 December 2026 (est.): End of TrueBlue's fiscal fourth quarter of 2026 and start of the springing fixed charge coverage covenant. Liquidity and covenant headroom matter more as revolver debt rises.
- ~23 February 2027 (est.): TrueBlue fourth-quarter 2026 results; date unconfirmed by the company. Tests the $499–519 million revenue outlook and the 19.8%–20.2% gross margin range.
What would change the view
A daily close below $10.85, the highest close before the 4 November 2026 report, which would put the shares back under their pre-report high. A fourth-quarter gross margin under the 19.8% low end of the outlook, or a return to a GAAP loss, would add to the break.
The risks this note tracks, each with what would confirm it:
- Gross margin keeps falling as lower-margin energy work grows. Confirmed by: fourth-quarter 2026 gross margin below the 19.8% low end of the reported outlook range.
- Working-capital needs consume cash and push borrowing higher. Confirmed by: total liquidity below the $86.2 million reported at 27 September 2026, or revolver debt above $102.3 million.
- Growth depends on one segment and one end market. Confirmed by: PeopleReady growth slowing sharply while PeopleManagement and PeopleSolutions stay near flat.
- Further insider selling after the roughly 22% one-day jump signals limited internal confidence in the new price range. Confirmed by: additional open-market sales by executives or directors in SEC Form 4 filings.
What it trades with
TrueBlue's results track U.S. temporary-help employment and industrial hiring. The beta of 1.60 means the shares tend to move more than the S&P 500 in both directions. Energy-related skilled work links PeopleReady to oil and gas activity, so a drop in energy-sector hiring would hit the segment driving the beat. Industrial staffing peers react to the same labor releases. Some data providers tag TrueBlue as managed care, but it is industrial staffing.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Third-quarter 2026 revenue was $520.7 million, up 20.7% from $431.3 million; PeopleReady revenue was $338.0 million, up 34.4%. TrueBlue Form 10-Q, quarter ended 27 September 2026 · as of
- Third-quarter gross profit was $107.0 million, up 9.3%; gross margin was 20.5% against 22.7% a year earlier. TrueBlue Form 10-Q, quarter ended 27 September 2026 · as of
- Third-quarter net income was $9.2 million ($0.28 per diluted share) against a net loss of $1.9 million a year earlier. TrueBlue Form 10-Q, quarter ended 27 September 2026 · as of
- Cash was $19.8 million, revolver debt $102.3 million and total liquidity $86.2 million at quarter-end. TrueBlue Form 10-Q, quarter ended 27 September 2026 · as of
- Third-quarter adjusted EPS was $0.33 against a $0.19 estimate; sales of $520.737 million beat a $455.7 million estimate. Benzinga · as of
- TrueBlue guided fourth-quarter 2026 sales to $499–519 million against a $441.149 million analyst estimate. Benzinga · as of
- The shares rose 21.95% in the regular session on 5 November 2026 after rising 29.26% in pre-market trading. Benzinga mover lists · as of
- Chief Legal Officer Garrett Ferencz sold 14,214 shares on the open market at an average of $11.96 on 9 November to 10 November 2026. SEC Form 4 filed 12 November 2026 · as of
Sources
- TrueBlue, Inc. - Form 10-Q - FY2026 · sec.gov
- TrueBlue (TBI) Q3 2026 earnings review · finsee.ai
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