AMR · Alpha Metallurgical Resources
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $185.24
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
16.9% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $185.24, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 9.0% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $185.24, over the 200-day average of $181.83 and 18% above the 11 November 2026 close, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500. A raised 2027 outlook or fourth-quarter Met-segment realization well above its cost of coal sales would also show it.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Energy
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 6 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 562
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +6.7
- Gross margin (%)
- 9.4
- Operating margin (%)
- −1.4
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- −13.8
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- 331
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 0.8
- Free-cash-flow yield (%)
- −0.7
All filed numbers
What Alpha Metallurgical Resources reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 562 | +6.7 | 9.4 | −1.4 |
| first filed | 493 | −10.4 | 10.0 | −2.1 |
| first filed | 525 | −1.3 | 9.6 | −2.0 |
| first filed | 521 | −15.7 | 8.1 | −4.1 |
| first filed | 527 | −21.6 | 12.4 | −0.5 |
| first filed | 550 | −31.6 | 12.8 | 0.5 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | −15.0 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: −49.8 | −9.3 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | −2.5 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 135 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 149 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | −13.8 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 334 |
| Debt ($M) long-term debt | 2.7 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | 331 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) | Not reported |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) +93.2% on a year | 99.8 |
| Receivables ($M) | 242 |
| Inventory ($M) | 253 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 1,493 |
| Market value ($M) | 1,948 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 1,617 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 0.8 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to book value (×) | 1.3 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | −0.7 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 10.6% of shares outstanding sold short, 5.4 days of average trading to cover, −4.3% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $12.6M | $0 |
| 12 monthsfrom | $46.0M | $3.1M |
The thesis
Alpha Metallurgical Resources is more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months: its 2027 guidance puts cost of coal sales at $104–$110 per ton, above the revised 2026 range of $103–$107, while the coal already committed for 2027 sells at lower prices than a year ago. The fourth-quarter report, expected around February 2027, settles whether realized prices pull away from costs.
The company reported definitive third-quarter results on 6 November 2026: a net loss of $9.3 million, or $0.73 per diluted share, on 3.9 million tons sold, with adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) of $29.4 million. The shares closed at $143.27 on 5 November 2026, rose to $157.64 on 10 November 2026 and closed at $156.98 on 11 November 2026. That is 38.2% below the intraday 52-week high of $253.82 on 15 January 2026. The market is pricing a thin-margin year, not a recovery.
Bullish and bearish views on Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc.
The bull case on Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. (AMR), in brief: volumes and cash earnings are rising. The bear case: Alpha still lost money.
Bull case
- Volumes and cash earnings are rising. Alpha sold 3.9 million tons in the third quarter, against about 3.5 million in the second, and adjusted EBITDA was $29.4 million against $25.6 million (8-Ks of 6 November 2026 and 7 August 2026). Met-segment net realization was $121.09 per ton, up from $118.71.
- The balance sheet carries almost no debt. At 30 September 2026 Alpha held $334.1 million in cash, $10.6 million of long-term debt and $443.4 million of liquidity, with no borrowings on its asset-based credit line.
- 2027 shipments are guided higher. The 6 November 2026 release guides total Met-segment shipments to 14.3–15.7 million tons, against 14.2–15.4 million for 2026. Management expects several hundred thousand tons of premium low-volatility coal from its Wildcat mine for seaborne sale in 2027.
- Directors bought in the open market. SEC Form 4 filings show Kenneth Courtis bought shares on 20 August 2026, 21 August 2026, 25 August 2026, 28 August 2026 and 8 September 2026 at average prices from $193.50 to $228.99. Michael Gorzynski, a director and 10% owner, bought 10,000 shares at $208.92 on 21 August 2026. All of those prices sit above the 11 November 2026 close.
Bear case
- Alpha still lost money. The third-quarter net loss was $9.3 million, or $0.73 per diluted share, in the 6 November 2026 release.
- 2027 costs are guided up. Cost of coal sales is guided to $104–$110 per ton, against $103–$107 for 2026. The third-quarter Met-segment figure was $106.93 per ton, against realization of $121.09 per ton, before freight, handling and idled-mine costs.
- Little of 2027 is priced, and domestic prices are lower. As of 29 October 2026, Alpha had committed and priced 3.6 million tons of metallurgical coal for 2027, 26% of the guide, at $134.46 per ton. Domestic tons were 3.5 million at $135.48 per ton. Finviz's earnings analysis puts the domestic tons booked for 2026 at 4.1 million at $136.30 per ton.
- Terminal damage lasts into 2028. Management said on 6 November 2026 that the stacker reclaimer damaged at Dominion Terminal Associates in June needs full replacement, a roughly two-year custom build, according to Finviz's call summary. The company says other Hampton Roads terminals can be used meanwhile.
- Chinese steel demand weakened. China's National Bureau of Statistics reported August crude-steel output of 74.61 million tonnes, down 3.7% year over year, and coke output down 6.2% (release of 16 September 2026).
- Buybacks have slowed. Alpha spent $39.7 million on repurchases in the first nine months of 2026. Cumulative repurchases are about 7.1 million shares for about $1.2 billion, at roughly $166.31 per share, under a $1.5 billion authorization.
Price setup
The shares closed at $143.27 on 5 November 2026, $147.93 on 6 November 2026, $155.15 on 9 November 2026, $157.64 on 10 November 2026 and $156.98 on 11 November 2026. The 52-week closing low is $137.16 on 31 July 2026. The three-month price change is 0.9%, from a close of $155.60 on 13 August 2026.
The last close is below both moving averages as of 11 November 2026: the 50-day average is $176.47 and the 200-day average is $181.83 (adjusted daily closes). The shares closed at $209.93 on 24 August 2026 and have not been back above either average since the decline.
The average repurchase price of about $166.31 per share through 31 October 2026 is above the last close. Shares outstanding were 12,662,046 at 31 October 2026, so a small number of shares traded can move the price sharply.
Catalysts ahead
- ~16 November 2026 (est.): China National Bureau of Statistics October industrial-output release. Shows whether crude-steel output, down 3.7% year over year in August, kept falling, which weighs on coking-coal demand.
- ~20 February 2027 (est.): Alpha fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 results. Shows whether Met-segment realization pulls away from cost of coal sales, which 2027 guidance puts at $104–$110 per ton.
What would change the view
A daily close above $185.24, over the 200-day average of $181.83 and 18% above the 11 November 2026 close, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500. A raised 2027 outlook or fourth-quarter Met-segment realization well above its cost of coal sales would also show it.
What it trades with
Alpha's shares follow seaborne metallurgical coal prices and Chinese steel demand more than the broad market. Finviz reported that the Australian premium low-volatility index rose from $244 to $272.10 per tonne and the US East Coast high-volatility A index from $157 to $195 over the third quarter, then partly reversed after quarter end. That rally did not carry the shares higher.
Alpha reports realizations per short ton, while seaborne benchmarks are quoted per metric tonne, so index moves do not map directly onto its results. Management said 2027 guidance assumes diesel in the low-to-mid $5 range per gallon, which ties costs to oil prices.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Third-quarter 2026 net loss $9.3 million, or $0.73 per diluted share; 3.9 million tons sold; adjusted EBITDA $29.4 million; Met-segment net realization $121.09 per ton; cost of coal sales $106.93 per ton. Alpha third-quarter 2026 results (8-K) · as of
- 2027 guidance: Met-segment shipments 14.3–15.7 million tons; cost of coal sales $104–$110 per ton; capital expenditures $145–$165 million; SG&A $53–$59 million. Alpha third-quarter 2026 results release · as of
- 2027 metallurgical tons committed and priced: 3.6 million at $134.46 per ton (26% of the guide); domestic 3.5 million tons at $135.48 per ton. Alpha third-quarter 2026 results release (position as of 29 October 2026) · as of
- Liquidity $443.4 million, including $334.1 million cash; long-term debt $10.6 million; no borrowings on the asset-based credit line. Alpha third-quarter 2026 results release · as of
- About 7.1 million shares repurchased for about $1.2 billion (about $166.31 per share) through 31 October 2026; 12,662,046 shares outstanding. Alpha third-quarter 2026 results release · as of
- Second-quarter Met-segment net realization $118.71 per ton; adjusted EBITDA $25.6 million. Alpha second-quarter 2026 results release (8-K) · as of
- Director Kenneth Courtis bought 10,000 shares at an average $225.83 on 8 September 2026; director Michael Gorzynski bought 10,000 shares at $208.92 on 21 August 2026. SEC Form 4 filings · as of
- August China crude-steel output was 74.61 million tonnes, down 3.7% year over year; coke output fell 6.2%. China National Bureau of Statistics · as of
Sources
- Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. - Form 8-K - FY2026 · sec.gov
- Alpha Announces Financial Results for Third Quarter 2026 · finviz.com
- Alpha Metallurgical misses badly as rising costs outrun recovering volumes and 2027 guidance locks in the squeeze · finviz.com
- Press Release Alpha Announces 3Q26 Results 11 6 26 · s22.q4cdn.com