DVA · DaVita

The thesis

DaVita is modestly more likely than not to beat the S&P 500 over the next three months, because the third-quarter earnings beat lifted the low end of 2026 guidance and the shares have since fallen below both moving averages. The fourth-quarter report with 2027 guidance, which the CFO placed in February 2027, settles whether treatment growth and costs support that floor.

On 29 October 2026 DaVita reported third-quarter adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $3.82 against a $3.61 estimate, and raised the low end of full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $14.30 from $14.10. The top end stayed at $15.20.

The shares closed at $194.82 on 5 November 2026 and $174.07 on 12 November 2026, giving back the post-report recovery. On 10 November 2026 Washington's attorney general sued DaVita and Fresenius Medical Care in Thurston County Superior Court over physician noncompete terms, per Reuters as relayed by PYMNTS. DaVita disputes the allegations and says it will contest them. No other company news is dated in the last two weeks.

The market price already reflects a legal and competition overhang and thin volume growth: the 12 November 2026 close sits below the 50-day average of $182.80 and the 200-day average of $180.57, and 29.7% below the 52-week intraday high.

Bullish and bearish views on DaVita Inc.

The bull case on DaVita Inc. (DVA), in brief: earnings beat and guidance moved up. The bear case: a state antitrust suit adds a legal overhang.

Bull case

• Earnings beat and guidance moved up. DaVita reported revenue of $3.578 billion against a $3.508 billion estimate on 29 October 2026. It lifted the low end of adjusted operating income guidance to $2,175 million from $2,150 million and kept free cash flow guidance at $1.0–$1.25 billion.
• The Medicare rate beat the proposal. CEO Javier Rodriguez said on the 29 October 2026 call that the final 2027 headline increase for large dialysis organizations is 3.5%, up 1.5 points from the proposed rule. CFO Joel Ackerman estimated the net impact on DaVita at 1.5% to 2%, with each 1% worth about $30 million a year.
• Kidney care profit guidance rose. Rodriguez said on 29 October 2026 that Integrated Kidney Care should deliver at least $65 million of adjusted operating income in 2026, at least $25 million above prior guidance.
• Buybacks continued after the quarter. DaVita repurchased 0.6 million shares for $111 million in the third quarter and 0.5 million for $87 million from quarter-end through 27 October 2026, per the 29 October 2026 release.
• Management expects better 2027 volume. Ackerman said on 29 October 2026 that 2027 volume growth should exceed 2026 and that pharmaceutical costs should come down. UBS raised its target to $287 and TD Cowen to $228 after the report, per 2 November 2026 headlines.

Bear case

• A state antitrust suit adds a legal overhang. Washington's attorney general alleged on 10 November 2026 that DaVita and Fresenius required medical-director nephrologists to sign noncompetes that make it harder for rivals to open centers. The state seeks an order voiding the provisions and civil penalties of up to $7,500 per violation, per Reuters as relayed by PYMNTS. A July 2024 Politico report said the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) had opened an investigation into both companies' noncompete practices.
• Revenue per treatment slipped again. US dialysis revenue per treatment was $415.25 in the third quarter, $0.62 below the second quarter, per the 29 October 2026 release. Ackerman cited lower commercial mix and lower phosphate binder reimbursement and put the Affordable Care Act-related commercial mix headwind at $40 million for 2026.
• Costs rose while pricing slipped. Patient care costs reached $280.22 per treatment, up $2.82 from the second quarter. Adjusted EPS fell to $3.82 from $4.02 in the second quarter, and Ackerman said medical supply and professional liability costs ran above plan.
• Underlying volume growth is thin. Normalized non-acquired treatment growth was 0.4% from a year earlier. Average treatments per normalized day fell to 92,546 from 92,649 in the second quarter, and Ackerman flagged an approximately 1% fourth-quarter volume headwind from day mix.
• Leverage and a recurring large seller. Total debt was $10.8 billion and the leverage ratio 3.38 times at the third quarter. Berkshire Hathaway, a 10% owner, sold 382,563 shares at $180.43 on 27 October 2026, per its SEC Form 4 filed 29 October 2026. Barclays cut its target to $216 with an equal-weight rating on 2 November 2026.

Price setup

DaVita closed at $174.07 on 12 November 2026, down from $183.50 on 11 November 2026, $179.28 on 10 November 2026 and $185.54 on 9 November 2026. The 5 November 2026 close was $194.82. The 3-month change is –3.3%, measured from the $180.06 close on 14 August 2026.

The close sits below the 50-day average of $182.80 and the 200-day average of $180.57, both as of 12 November 2026. The 52-week intraday high is $247.49 on 3 August 2026, and the 52-week closing low is $103.87 on 14 January 2026.

The published kill line has not been crossed. The last close is above it, and the test uses weekly closes, so the week ending 13 November 2026 is the next reading. The visible supply is Berkshire Hathaway's recurring sales, which DaVita offsets through repurchases to hold Berkshire at 45% ownership.

Catalysts ahead

• ~30 November 2026 (est.): Expanded hemodialysis dialyzer national rollout reaches most eligible patients, per the CEO's November timing. It checks execution; management expects no material net effect on adjusted operating income in 2026 or 2027.
• ~15 February 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter 2026 report and 2027 guidance; the CFO said February, and no date is published. It shows whether full-year adjusted EPS clears $14.30 and whether 2027 guidance reflects the volume and drug-cost improvement management described.

What would change the view

A weekly close below $172, under the 12 November 2026 close of $174.07, which would erase the recovery since the August selloff. A fourth-quarter report showing full-year 2026 adjusted EPS below $14.30, or 2027 guidance with a low end below $14.30, would also break the case.

The risks this note tracks, each with what would confirm it:

• The Washington antitrust suit widens into other states or a federal action on noncompetes, restricting how DaVita contracts with medical directors. Confirmed by: an FTC complaint or another state attorney general filing naming DaVita's physician contracts, or a Washington court order voiding the challenged provisions.
• Commercial payor mix keeps pulling dialysis revenue per treatment down. Confirmed by: fourth-quarter revenue per treatment below the third-quarter figure of $415.25, with lower commercial mix cited again.
• Supply and liability costs stay high and erode dialysis margins. Confirmed by: fourth-quarter patient care costs per treatment above the third-quarter figure of $280.22.
• Treatment volume fails to recover from the third-quarter dip in daily treatments. Confirmed by: fourth-quarter treatments per normalized day at or below 92,546.
• The Medicare drug add-on falls faster than management expects, shrinking the 2027 rate gain. Confirmed by: a 2027 net Medicare rate impact guided below the CFO's 1.5% to 2% estimate at the February report.

What it trades with

DaVita trades with dialysis and kidney care peers, chiefly Fresenius Medical Care. The two together hold about 74% of the US dialysis market per the HHS Kidney Care National Plan of 20 October 2026, and both are named in the Washington suit. Medicare's annual dialysis payment rule and commercial insurer mix drive both. The shares also respond to Berkshire Hathaway's selling and DaVita's matching repurchases. Its drivers are company-specific health services factors, with little link to technology or commodity cycles.