Dormant
DVA · DaVita Inc.
Last analysed ·
Against its published line
Nothing is through its line on this close.
How to read this
The red mark is the published kill line — the price that would prove the pick wrong. The dot is where the name closed on the last session; a dot LEFT of the mark has closed through its line.
Distance is drawn on a square-root scale, so close calls get the room. Past 8% a row stops competing and reads well clear, with a hollow dot to say the figure is off the drawn scale. Rows run tightest first.
Resolved Graded and closed 2026-09-11 at medium conviction — the published kill line did not fire. Coverage continued after the close; the read below is dated 2026-09-13 and is not part of the scored record.
Current thesis
The census-recovery re-rate stayed dead through August, but the 2026-08-21 washout close of $173.82 held: DVA closed 2026-08-28 at $180.68 with RSI(14) back to 44.9 from 10.9. The 2026-08-25 Humana value-based deal (>10,000 MA members, CKD 3B–5, no disclosed economics) is the first company-dated item since the 08-04 print and does not address H2 revenue per treatment; the next 30 days hold no scheduled company event.
Kill line
A weekly close below $172 takes out the 2026-08-21 low weekly close of $173.82 and restarts the post-print de-rating toward the $165 low published target; secondary: the ~2026-10-28 (est.) Q3 print arriving with FY26 adjusted EPS revised below the $14.10 low end of the affirmed range.
Pick status
Played out resolved published kill line did not fire How this is scored →Latest analysis and events for DVA —
As of 13 September 2026, the latest FrontierPicks analysis for DaVita Inc. (DVA): The census-recovery re-rate stayed dead through August, but the 2026-08-21 washout close of $173.82 held: DVA closed 2026-08-28 at $180.68 with RSI(14) back to 44.9 from 10.9. The 2026-08-25 Humana value-based deal (>10,000 MA members, CKD 3B–5, no disclosed economics) is the first company-dated item since the 08-04 print and does not address H2 revenue per treatment; the next 30 days hold no scheduled company event.
Kill line: A weekly close below $172 takes out the 2026-08-21 low weekly close of $173.82 and restarts the post-print de-rating toward the $165 low published target; secondary: the ~2026-10-28 (est.) Q3 print arriving with FY26 adjusted EPS revised below the $14.10 low end of the affirmed range.
Current Thesis
DaVita's recovery case depends on Q3 2026 revenue per treatment stabilizing and its August earnings guidance holding; a weekly close below $172 invalidates the recovery structure. The operating test is Q3 revenue per treatment at or above the Q2 level of $415.87, with full-year adjusted earnings per share (EPS) guidance retaining at least the $14.10 lower end announced on 2026-08-04. These are research conditions, not company forecasts for Q3.
The 2026-09-11 adjusted reference close was $181.55, compared with $180.68 on 2026-08-28. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) rose to 62.6 from 44.9 over those dated observations. Momentum has improved, but the supplied closes alone cannot establish a durable base or show that treatment economics have recovered.
As an inference, the narrative is maturing — Zacks revisited the treatment-volume and Integrated Kidney Care story on 2026-09-03 and 2026-09-09, while the commercial-insurance mix problem identified in the 2026-08-04 call remains unresolved. The August distinction between a failed census-led revaluation and a possible recovery still applies. The new settlement headline concerns litigation, rather than evidence of stronger dialysis reimbursement. Zacks, September 3, Zacks, September 9.
Bullish and bearish views on DaVita Inc.
The model's bull view on DaVita Inc. (DVA), in brief: Treatment volumes supported the recovery case. The bear view: Treatment economics still constrain recovery. Both cases follow in full.
Bull Case
- Treatment volumes supported the recovery case. DaVita reported 7,226,600 US dialysis treatments for Q2 2026 on 2026-08-04, with normalized daily treatments up 1.09% sequentially. Consolidated revenue was $3.554 billion and adjusted EPS was $4.02. Q2 results filing.
- Guidance retained an earnings anchor. The 2026-08-04 release maintained FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $14.10–$15.20 and free cash flow guidance of $1.0–$1.25 billion. Those published ranges support a recovery hypothesis only while subsequent disclosures preserve them. Q2 results filing.
- Integrated care gained contracted reach. DaVita's 2026-08-25 announcement described a Humana partnership covering more than 10,000 Medicare Advantage members with chronic kidney disease stages 3B–5. Contract value and margin contribution were undisclosed, so membership coverage cannot establish an earnings contribution. DaVita announcement listing.
Bear Case
- Treatment economics still constrain recovery. The 2026-08-04 disclosure put Q2 revenue per treatment at $415.87, down from $417.59 in Q1. Management's accompanying call attributed pressure to commercial-insurance mix and phosphate-binder revenue, and described slightly negative second-half year-over-year revenue per treatment within its full-year growth guidance of 1–2%.
- Settlement adds a quantified liability. Healthcare Dive reported on 2026-09-02 that DaVita agreed to a $15 million proposed class settlement relating to the 2025 data breach; Benzinga reported preliminary court approval on 2026-09-04. Preliminary approval does not establish final resolution, and these reports do not establish the net earnings effect after insurance or existing provisions. Healthcare Dive, Benzinga.
- Analyst optimism lacks a fresh date. Stock Analysis displayed a $218.43 average analyst target when checked on 2026-09-13, but dated its latest target update to 2026-08-11. That aggregation supplies no evidence of an estimate upgrade following the September settlement news. Analyst forecast table.
Setup & Price Structure
At the 2026-09-11 adjusted close of $181.55, DaVita remained 24.7% below its adjusted 52-week high of $240.96 and down 13.0% over three months. The higher RSI describes improved recent momentum alongside a negative longer-window price change; it does not resolve that divergence.
The 2026-08-21 close of $173.82 remains the dated washout reference. The published $172 weekly-close threshold lies below that reference and remains the thesis-break condition. The available observations do not establish an unbroken sequence of weekly closes above it. No moving-average value or trading-volume series is supplied, so distance above a rising average and expanding participation cannot be assessed.
Retail-facing coverage appeared at Zacks on 2026-09-03 and 2026-09-09. That sample is too small to support a crowding claim, and article frequency is not a measurement of investor exposure. September 3 coverage, September 9 coverage.
Catalyst Calendar (next 30 days)
- 2026-09-14 through 2026-10-13: no confirmed company event identified. DaVita's investor events and release pages, checked on 2026-09-13, did not provide a Q3 2026 earnings announcement date. This is a scheduling limitation, not a prediction that no news will occur. Investor events, Company releases.
- ~2026-10-27 (est.): Q3 2026 results. ChartMill displayed this forecast date when checked on 2026-09-13; DaVita had not confirmed it on the reviewed company pages. This later event is included because Q3 revenue per treatment and the FY2026 guidance update settle the operating recovery test. ChartMill earnings forecast.
What Would Change Our Mind
Loss of the August washout structure would end the recovery case: a weekly close below $172 breaches the published threshold beneath the 2026-08-21 close of $173.82. A subsequent FY2026 adjusted EPS forecast below the $14.10 lower end announced on 2026-08-04 would separately invalidate the earnings support for the thesis.
The positive case plays out only if Q3 2026 revenue per treatment reaches at least the Q2 benchmark of $415.87 and the company retains an FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance floor of at least $14.10 before the price condition fires. Revenue per treatment below that benchmark would fail the stated stabilization test even if adjusted EPS guidance survives. A higher RSI alone cannot satisfy either operating condition.
Correlation Notes
This is a single-company earnings-recovery case. The 2026-08-04 call connected reimbursement pressure to commercial-insurance mix, while the 2026-08-25 Humana announcement connected the integrated-care business to Medicare Advantage membership. Those are operating exposures; they do not establish a measured share-price correlation with insurers or other healthcare companies.
No matched peer-return series accompanies the 2026-09-11 price observations. A numerical correlation or a claim that a healthcare group rally confirms DaVita's recovery is therefore unsupported.
Notes
- Berkshire Hathaway is the largest holder and a recurring seller; a standstill-linked repurchase agreement caps its stake at or below 45%, tying buyback size to that cap.
- Net leverage was 3.37x at the 2026-08-04 Q2 report; buybacks and deleveraging compete for the same free cash flow.
- CMS ESRD PPS rate-setting and recurring DaVita-versus-insurer litigation are permanent background variables for this name.
- Beta ~0.84-0.91. A defensive dialysis operator that re-rates on prints and estimate revisions rather than on tape velocity.
- DaVita had not announced a Q3 2026 conference-call date as of 2026-08-30; recent years put the Q3 print in late October (Q3 2025 was 2025-10-29).
- The 2026-08-25 Humana value-based agreement was announced without contract value, revenue contribution or margin disclosure.
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