ANDG · Andersen Group
Conviction · Medium · more likely to lead the S&P 500 over the next three months, by a modest margin
Wrong if: a daily close below $55.00
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
9.2% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
The red mark is the price level of the published kill line: a close through it (a weekly close, on a weekly line) would prove the research note wrong on price. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026; a dot left of the mark has closed through its line.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close below $55.00, on record since 10 November 2026. The shares are up 22.6% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close below $55.00, under the 50-day moving average, which would show the re-rating since August unwinding despite the raised guidance. A business break would be a fourth-quarter report that puts 2026 revenue below $990 million, the low end of the raised range.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Industrials
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 12 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 337
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +18.7
- Gross margin (%)
- 45.8
- Operating margin (%)
- 30.4
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 206
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- −94.1
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 1.1
- Free-cash-flow yield (%)
- 21.2
All filed numbers
What Andersen Group reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 337 | +18.7 | 45.8 | 30.4 |
| first filed | 218 | +23.7 | 20.3 | −4.1 |
| first filed | 241 | +15.7 | 30.9 | 10.0 |
| first filed | 170 | — | 24.8 | −117.5 |
| first filed | 284 | — | 56.4 | 41.3 |
| first filed | 176 | — | −28.0 | −59.8 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 99.6 |
| Net income ($M) | −9.0 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) | Not available |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 226 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 19.4 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 206 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 194 |
| Debt ($M) long-term debt | 288 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | −94.1 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) | 15.6 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 267 |
| Inventory ($M) | Not reported |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | −720 |
| Market value ($M) | 974 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 1,068 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 1.1 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not available |
| Price to book value (×) | Not meaningful |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 21.2 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 15.2% of shares outstanding sold short, 7.3 days of average trading to cover, −18.2% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $0 |
| 12 monthsfrom | $8.2M | $13.5M |
The thesis
Andersen Group's shares are modestly more likely to lead the S&P 500 over the next three months. The third-quarter report on 12 November 2026 beat on revenue, raised both 2026 ranges and set a 2027 revenue outlook above the pre-report estimate. The fourth-quarter report, expected in mid-March 2027, will show whether the outlook holds as the signed deals close.
Third-quarter revenue was $337.3 million, up 18.7% from $284.3 million a year earlier (company release, 12 November 2026). The estimate was $333.64 million. Management raised 2026 revenue guidance to $990 million–$1.01 billion from $980 million–$1.0 billion. It raised 2026 adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) guidance to $255–275 million from $225–250 million (12 November 2026 earnings call). For 2027 the company guides revenue of $1.275–1.325 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $320–340 million. A 12 November 2026 market news report put the 2027 revenue estimate before the report at $1.175 billion.
The price had already moved ahead of the report. The shares closed at $65.42 on 12 November 2026, up 33.8% over three months. They then fell 5.5% to $61.82 in after-hours trading that evening, according to Investing.com. That drop suggests investors weighed slower organic growth more heavily than the raised guidance. The rating is Medium because the guidance is strong evidence but the first reaction cuts against it.
Bullish and bearish views on Andersen Group Inc.
The bull case on Andersen Group Inc. (ANDG), in brief: both 2026 ranges went up. The bear case: organic growth slowed.
Bull case
- Both 2026 ranges went up. On 12 November 2026, revenue guidance rose to $990 million–$1.01 billion and adjusted EBITDA guidance to $255–275 million, according to the earnings call. Revenue for the first nine months was $795.7 million, up 19.1% (company release).
- The 2027 outlook beat expectations. The 2027 revenue range of $1.275–1.325 billion compares with a $1.175 billion estimate reported on 12 November 2026. On the call, management said it expects about 9% pricing growth in 2027.
- Margin held at the seasonal peak. Third-quarter adjusted EBITDA was $154.5 million, a 45.8% margin, against 45.7% a year earlier. The nine-month margin was 34.8% (company release, 12 November 2026).
- More deals are queued to close. The company says it has signed 24 deals in 2026 worth about $228 million in annualized revenue, with 16 completed (company releases, 10 November 2026 and 12 November 2026). Five deals signed on 10 November 2026 are expected to close in the first quarter of 2027.
- The firm is adding people quickly. Headcount was 2,930 on 30 September 2026, up from 2,296 on 31 December 2025 (company release, 12 November 2026).
Bear case
- Organic growth slowed. On the 12 November 2026 call, Deutsche Bank's analyst put third-quarter organic growth at about 15%, against the 20.6% cited for the second quarter on 12 August 2026. Management did not give its own figure.
- U.S. attrition rose. Annualized U.S. attrition was 15.8%, up from 14.2% a year earlier, according to the 12 November 2026 release. It was 15.7% in the second quarter.
- Adjusted profit fell. Adjusted net income fell 8.3% to $115.7 million, which the company attributes to higher tax and interest costs after its reorganization (release, 12 November 2026). The net loss attributable to Class A holders was $9.0 million, or $0.55 per share, after $47.5 million of equity-based compensation.
- The acquired share of 2027 is undisclosed. On the 12 November 2026 call, management said the 2027 range includes closed and signed deals plus a few more it expects to close. It declined to split organic from acquired revenue.
- Selling holders have supplied shares before. A secondary offering of 4,927,125 shares priced at $44.00 on 21 August 2026, after the 15 June 2026 lock-up expiry.
Price setup
The shares closed at $65.42 on 12 November 2026. That is 4.4% below the 52-week intraday high of $68.41 set on 5 November 2026. In the six sessions to 12 November 2026, closes ranged from $65.00 (6 November 2026) to $66.27 (5 November 2026). The three-month gain is 33.8% from the $48.89 close on 14 August 2026.
As of 12 November 2026, the 50-day moving average is $58.85 and the 200-day is $41.18. The $61.82 after-hours price on 12 November 2026 was above the 50-day average. The kill line sits below that average. A close under it would show the market rejecting the raised guidance and the re-rating since August unwinding. The $44.00 secondary price from 21 August 2026 marks where the last large block of shares changed hands. The 52-week closing low of $18.34 on 11 February 2026 shows how far the shares have already re-rated.
Catalysts ahead
- ~16 March 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 results; the 2025 report came on 17 March 2026. Shows whether 2026 revenue lands inside the raised $990 million–$1.01 billion range and whether the 2027 outlook of $1.275–1.325 billion holds or rises.
- ~31 March 2027 (est.): End of the company-stated first-quarter 2027 window for closing the remaining signed deals. Closing the five deals signed on 10 November 2026 and the Mexico, South Africa and Italy deals moves the acquired revenue built into the 2027 range from signed to reported.
What would change the view
A daily close below $55.00, under the 50-day moving average, which would show the re-rating since August unwinding despite the raised guidance. A business break would be a fourth-quarter report that puts 2026 revenue below $990 million, the low end of the raised range.
The risks this note tracks, each with what would confirm it:
- Organic growth keeps slowing while acquisitions fill the gap, which weakens the case for the 2027 range. Confirmed by: management confirming organic growth below the about 15% that Deutsche Bank's analyst cited for the third quarter of 2026.
- The 2027 outlook depends on deals that are not yet closed or not yet signed. Confirmed by: signed deals slipping past the first quarter of 2027, or the 2027 revenue range lowered at the fourth-quarter report.
- Integration strain from 24 deals in one year at a firm whose main asset is its people. Confirmed by: U.S. annualized attrition above the 15.8% reported for the third quarter of 2026.
- Margin gains stall as lower-margin acquired businesses grow as a share of revenue. Confirmed by: the 2026 adjusted EBITDA result below $255 million, or the 2027 adjusted EBITDA range of $320–340 million cut.
- More selling-stockholder supply, with the shares well above the 21 August 2026 secondary price of $44.00. Confirmed by: a new resale registration, a follow-on offering filing, or Form 4 sales by large holders.
- Higher tax and interest costs after the reorganization keep adjusted net income falling even as revenue grows. Confirmed by: fourth-quarter 2026 adjusted net income down from a year earlier.
What it trades with
Andersen Group trades on its own news more than with any sector. Its largest dated moves followed the 12 August 2026 second-quarter beat, the 21 August 2026 secondary, the October–November run of deal releases and the 12 November 2026 report. Revenue depends on corporate tax, legal and advisory work. A slowdown in corporate advisory spending would therefore hit it along with other professional-services firms. The Up-C share structure and the history of selling stockholders make share supply a factor specific to this stock.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Third-quarter 2026 revenue was $337.3 million, up 18.7% from $284.3 million a year earlier; adjusted EBITDA was $154.5 million, a 45.8% margin against 45.7% a year earlier. Andersen Group third-quarter 2026 results release · as of
- 2026 guidance was raised to revenue of $990 million–$1.01 billion (from $980 million–$1.0 billion) and adjusted EBITDA of $255–275 million (from $225–250 million). Andersen Group 12 November 2026 earnings call · as of
- Initial 2027 guidance calls for revenue of $1.275–1.325 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $320–340 million; the 2027 revenue estimate before the report was $1.175 billion. Andersen Group results release; market news report, 12 November 2026 · as of
- Adjusted net income fell 8.3% to $115.7 million; the net loss attributable to Andersen Group was $9.0 million, or $0.55 per Class A share, with $47.5 million of equity-based compensation. Andersen Group third-quarter 2026 results release · as of
- Annualized U.S. attrition was 15.8%, up from 14.2%; headcount was 2,930 on 30 September 2026, up from 2,296 on 31 December 2025. Andersen Group third-quarter 2026 results release · as of
- Deutsche Bank's analyst put third-quarter organic growth at about 15% on the call; management declined to split 2027 guidance between organic and acquired revenue. Andersen Group 12 November 2026 earnings call transcript · as of
- The company says it has signed 24 deals in 2026 worth about $228 million in combined annualized revenue, 16 of them completed; five signed on 10 November 2026 are expected to close in the first quarter of 2027. Andersen Group press release, 10 November 2026 · as of
- The shares fell 5.5% to $61.82 in after-hours trading on 12 November 2026, after the results release. Investing.com, Andersen Q3 2026 earnings call coverage · as of
Sources
- Andersen Group Reports Third Quarter Revenue Growth of 18.7% to $337.3 Million · investor.andersen.com ·
- Earnings call transcript: Andersen Group posts strong Q3 2026 growth as stock falls · in.investing.com ·
- Andersen Q3 2026 slides: 18.7% revenue growth as stock falls 5.5% · in.investing.com
- Andersen Group Expands Global Platform with Five New Acquisition Agreements Across the U.S., India and Europe · investor.andersen.com ·
- Andersen Group Inc Reports Q3 2026 Revenue of $337.3 Million, Beating Estimates; GAAP EPS Falls Short at $0.55 · gurufocus.com
- Andersen to Announce Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Financial Results · businesswire.com ·
- Andersen Group Q2 Earnings Call Highlights · marketbeat.com ·