AEHR · Aehr Test Systems
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $84.86
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
32.9% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $84.86, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 60.9% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $84.86, over both the 50-day and 200-day averages and 29% above the 11 November 2026 close, would show the shares leading the S&P 500 again. A fiscal 2027 revenue outlook raised above $150 million would point the same way.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Technology
Quarter to 25 September 2026, filed 6 November 2026
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 33.0
- Gross margin (%)
- 47.5
- Operating margin (%)
- 18.3
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- 105
All filed numbers
What Aehr Test Systems reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 33.0 | — | 47.5 | 18.3 |
| first filed | 18.8 | +33.7 | 42.6 | −6.4 |
| first filed | 10.3 | −43.7 | 32.7 | −41.0 |
| first filed | 9.9 | −26.5 | 25.7 | −47.0 |
| first filed | 11.0 | −16.4 | 33.9 | −37.1 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 6.9 |
| Net income ($M) | 7.2 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) | Not available |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | Not available |
| Capital spending ($M) | Not available |
| Free cash flow ($M) | Not available |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 105 |
| Debt ($M) | None reported |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) no debt reported | 105 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) | 8.0 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | Not reported |
| Inventory ($M) | 53.1 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 222 |
| Market value ($M) | 1,869 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) no debt reported | 1,764 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | Not available |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not available |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not available |
| Price to book value (×) | 8.4 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | Not available |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 17.1% of shares outstanding sold short, 2.0 days of average trading to cover, +7.7% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $0 |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $60.4M |
The thesis
Aehr Test Systems delivered a strong first fiscal quarter and raised its full-year revenue outlook to $150 million, but the shares closed at $65.78 on 11 November 2026, below both their 50-day and 200-day averages. The shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months than to beat it. The second-quarter report, expected in January 2027, and any production order from a second AI-processor customer settle whether the business outruns the selloff.
Aehr makes burn-in systems, which stress chips to weed out early failures before they ship. On 2 November 2026 it reported fiscal first-quarter revenue of $33.0 million, up 200% from a year earlier and 75% from the prior quarter, with GAAP net income of $7.2 million (SEC Form 8-K exhibit 99.1). Benzinga put the consensus estimate at $27.072 million of revenue and $0.11 of adjusted earnings per share; the company reported $0.28.
The price reaction has not followed the results. The shares closed at $60.84 on 4 November 2026, fell to $49.16 on 5 November 2026, and recovered to $65.78 on 11 November 2026. They are 46.7% lower than the $123.30 close of 13 August 2026.
Bullish and bearish views on Aehr Test Systems
The bull case on Aehr Test Systems (AEHR), in brief: record quarter with profit. The bear case: the shares sold off on good news.
Bull case
- Record quarter with profit. Revenue of $33.0 million in the quarter ended 25 September 2026 compares with $11.0 million a year earlier. GAAP net income was $7.2 million, against a $2.1 million loss in the year-earlier quarter (2 November 2026 results release).
- Guidance rose above the street. The company lifted fiscal 2027 revenue guidance to $150 million from a $130–150 million range and expects non-GAAP net income of at least 20% of revenue. Benzinga listed the consensus estimate at $137.057 million on 2 November 2026.
- Backlog keeps growing. Bookings were $46.7 million in the quarter, a book-to-bill ratio of about 1.4. Effective backlog, which includes orders received after quarter end, was $109.3 million on 1 November 2026.
- A second AI processor has qualified. The lead hyperscale customer's second processor completed qualification on the Sonoma system, with follow-on orders for production sampling and a ramp in calendar 2027. Aehr is shipping more than a dozen Sonoma systems a month for the first processor's ramp (2 November 2026 release).
- A new customer is testing. An AI accelerator, CPU and network-processor supplier bought a FOX-XP test cell for a Taiwan packaging partner, with installation planned for early calendar 2027 and a production decision several months later (2 November 2026 release).
- Analysts stay positive. Jefferies kept its Buy rating on 3 November 2026 and cut its target to $140 from $175. StockTwits reported Jefferies called the $150 million outlook conservative because backlog already covers most of the year. Lake Street kept Buy and cut its target to $90 from $110 on 3 November 2026.
Bear case
- The shares sold off on good news. After the 2 November 2026 report, the close of $49.16 on 5 November 2026 was below the $54.89 close of 30 October 2026. Both analyst firms lowered targets on 3 November 2026 despite the beat.
- Guidance only reaches the top of the old range. The $150 million outlook equals the upper end of the $130–150 million range given on 14 July 2026, so the raise removes the low end of that range.
- One customer drives the ramp. The release ties the Sonoma ramp and the second-processor qualification to the same lead hyperscale customer. The Taiwan FOX-XP order is a test installation, with a production decision still months away.
- Cash fell while profit rose. Cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash were $105.1 million on 25 September 2026, down from $116.5 million on 29 May 2026 (2 November 2026 release).
- Insiders have sold heavily. Massive.com's insider page showed 13 insiders reporting open-market sales of $63.3 million across 49 filings in the 12 months to 26 October 2026, with no open-market purchases. SEC Form 4 filings from 20 October to 2 November 2026 show tax withholding, a director grant and an option exercise.
- Issuance remains possible. A $60 million at-the-market equity programme (authorised 8 April 2026) and a universal shelf registration (filed 27 July 2026) allow share sales that appear only in filings.
Price setup
The last close was $65.78 on 11 November 2026. The 50-day average is $78.73 and the 200-day average is $75.60, both as of that close, so the shares sit below each. The 52-week intraday high is $147.40 on 14 August 2026, and the last close is 55.4% below it. The 52-week closing low is $19.40 on 20 November 2025.
The post-report range runs from a $49.16 close on 5 November 2026 to the latest close. Between those closes the shares gained 33.8%, but they have not yet reclaimed either moving average. The three-month change is −46.7%.
The market has already priced in a sharp de-rating: the shares trade 55.4% below the August high while the company has raised its revenue outlook, and Jefferies' $140 target is above double the 11 November 2026 close.
AEHG, a 2x leveraged single-stock fund on the shares launched 26 June 2026, rebalances daily and can amplify moves in either direction.
Catalysts ahead
- ~12 January 2027 (est.): Fiscal 2027 second-quarter results (quarter ending late December 2026); date not yet announced. Shows whether bookings and shipments keep pace with the $150 million full-year outlook after a $33.0 million first quarter.
- ~15 February 2027 (est.): Installation of the FOX-XP test cell at a Taiwan packaging partner for an AI accelerator, CPU and network-processor supplier, planned for early calendar 2027. A production decision several months after installation would show whether a second AI-processor customer follows the lead hyperscaler.
What would change the view
A daily close above $84.86, over both the 50-day and 200-day averages and 29% above the 11 November 2026 close, would show the shares leading the S&P 500 again. A fiscal 2027 revenue outlook raised above $150 million would point the same way.
What it trades with
Aehr trades with other test and burn-in equipment makers and with AI-chip demand, since the company guided about 70% of fiscal 2027 revenue to come from AI on 14 July 2026. Its silicon-photonics and silicon-carbide lines tie it to optical and power-chip capital spending. On 19 August 2026, 24/7 Wall St. reported Aehr falling 10% on a day Teradyne fell 5% and FormFactor 6%. The leveraged fund AEHG adds daily-rebalancing flows that can move the shares apart from those groups.
The evidence, claim by claim (7)
- First-quarter fiscal 2027 revenue was $33.0 million (up 200% year over year), GAAP net income $7.2 million, bookings $46.7 million, effective backlog $109.3 million on 1 November 2026. Aehr 2 November 2026 results release (SEC Form 8-K exhibit 99.1) · as of
- Fiscal 2027 revenue outlook raised to $150 million from a $130–150 million range, with non-GAAP net income of at least 20% of revenue. Aehr 2 November 2026 results release (SEC Form 8-K exhibit 99.1) · as of
- Adjusted EPS of $0.28 and revenue of $33.007 million compared with consensus estimates of $0.11 and $27.072 million; guidance compared with a $137.057 million consensus. Benzinga, 2 November 2026 · as of
- Cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash were $105.1 million on 25 September 2026, against $116.5 million on 29 May 2026. Aehr 2 November 2026 results release (SEC Form 8-K exhibit 99.1) · as of
- Lead hyperscale customer's second AI processor completed qualification on Sonoma; Aehr ships more than a dozen Sonoma systems per month. Aehr 2 November 2026 results release (SEC Form 8-K exhibit 99.1) · as of
- Jefferies kept Buy and cut its target to $140 from $175; Lake Street kept Buy and cut its target to $90 from $110. Benzinga analyst-action headlines, 3 November 2026 · as of
- 13 insiders reported open-market sales of $63.3 million across 49 filings in the 12 months to 26 October 2026, with no open-market purchases. Massive.com insider-trading page · as of
Sources
- AEHR TEST SYSTEMS - Form 8-K - FY2026 · sec.gov
- Aehr Test Systems (AEHR) Q1 2027 Earnings Call Transcript · webull.com
- Strong Quarterly Bookings of $46.7 Million; Effective Backlog Reaches $109.3 Million · finviz.com
- Aehr Test Aktie: Jefferies und Lake Street kappen die Ziele · boerse-global.de
- AEHR Stock Heads For Biggest Single-Day Gain Since July — Analysts Cut Targets Despite Earnings Beat, Raised Guidance · stocktwits.com
- 24/7 Wall St. ·
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