FLY · Firefly Aerospace
Conviction · Medium · more likely to lead the S&P 500 over the next three months, by a modest margin
Wrong if: a daily close below $23.70
Note written ·
How this view changed
- · Rating raised from Low to Medium. Results, 10 November 2026: Firefly reported third-quarter 2026 revenue of $110.7 million against a $102.3 million estimate, raised the low end of its 2026 revenue guide to $440 million and reported a record $1.7 billion backlog.
Price against the kill line
6.4% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
The red mark is the price level of the published kill line: a close through it (a weekly close, on a weekly line) would prove the research note wrong on price. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026; a dot left of the mark has closed through its line.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close below $23.70, set on 12 November 2026. The shares are down 7.2% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close below $23.70, the 10 November 2026 close before the third-quarter report, which would erase the post-report gain; or a company schedule placing the Alpha Block II debut after 31 December 2026.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Industrials
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 10 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 111
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +259.6
- Gross margin (%)
- 22.9
- Operating margin (%)
- −91.8
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- −350
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- 510
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 10.4
- Free-cash-flow yield (%)
- −8.1
All filed numbers
What Firefly Aerospace reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 111 | +259.6 | 22.9 | −91.8 |
| first filed | 118 | +656.9 | 20.3 | −80.9 |
| first filed | 80.9 | +44.8 | 21.6 | −118.3 |
| first filed | 57.7 | +538.4 | 27.7 | −148.4 |
| first filed | 30.8 | +37.6 | 27.6 | −202.1 |
| first filed | 15.5 | −26.2 | 25.7 | −349.5 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | −94.2 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: −324 | −94.2 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +79.4 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | −281 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 68.7 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | −350 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 535 |
| Debt ($M) non-current long-term debt plus current debt | 25.1 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | 510 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) +28.0% on a year | 217 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) −24.0% on a year | 549 |
| Receivables ($M) | 56.4 |
| Inventory ($M) | Not reported |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) including non-controlling interests | 1,144 |
| Market value ($M) | 4,330 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 3,820 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 10.4 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to book value (×) | 3.8 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | −8.1 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 7.8% of shares outstanding sold short, 4.0 days of average trading to cover, +12.9% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $0 |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $384.3M |
The thesis
Firefly Aerospace's third-quarter report on 10 November 2026 makes it modestly more likely than not that the shares beat the S&P 500 over the next three months. Revenue beat estimates, the low end of the 2026 revenue guide rose, and backlog hit a record. The Alpha Block II debut, which management placed in the fourth quarter of 2026, settles whether launch delivery can carry the year-end revenue the guide now requires.
Firefly reported third-quarter revenue of $110.7 million, up 259% from a year earlier, against a $102.3 million estimate (company 8-K and Benzinga, 10 November 2026). The company raised its 2026 revenue range from $420–450 million to $440–450 million. Backlog reached a record $1.7 billion, up from $1.5 billion at the end of the second quarter.
The shares closed at $26.61 on 11 November 2026, up from $23.70 the session before the report and from a 52-week closing low of $15.18 on 5 November 2026. At $26.61 the market has priced a recovery to roughly the 200-day moving average, still 57.2% below the 52-week high of $62.17 set on 26 May 2026, and has not yet priced a successful Block II flight.
Bullish and bearish views on Firefly Aerospace Inc.
The bull case on Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY), in brief: revenue and loss both beat. The bear case: the year-end quarter depends on Alpha.
Bull case
- Revenue and loss both beat. Third-quarter revenue of $110.7 million topped the $102.3 million estimate, and the adjusted loss of 45 cents per share beat the 48-cent estimate (Benzinga, 10 November 2026).
- The guidance floor moved up. Firefly raised the low end of 2026 revenue guidance to $440 million from $420 million on 10 November 2026, after cutting planned 2026 Alpha launches from four to three earlier in the year (Earnings Whispers, 3 November 2026).
- Backlog grew to a record. Backlog reached $1.7 billion at 30 September 2026, up from $1.5 billion a quarter earlier. On the 10 November 2026 call, management credited a $94 million Space Force ground-based radar digitization award, more hardware orders and an Alpha hypersonics task order.
- Commercial launch demand is broadening. Firefly signed Synspective for up to 10 Alpha launches through 2030 and SSC Space for two launches from Esrange in Sweden, its first European launch contracts (company 8-K, 10 November 2026). The AST SpaceMobile engine agreements, announced on 6 November 2026, are valued at more than $1.3 billion.
- Analysts raised targets after the report. On 11 November 2026, B. Riley raised its Buy-rated target to $54 from $40, and Barclays raised its Equal-Weight target to $35 (Benzinga).
Bear case
- The year-end quarter depends on Alpha. Management placed the Alpha Block II debut in the fourth quarter of 2026 on 11 August 2026 (Spaceflight Now). The 10 November 2026 release says only that Block II is "moving toward launch," with no date.
- The new guide sits close to consensus. The $440–450 million range compares with a $439.69 million consensus (Benzinga, 10 November 2026), and Chartmill reported the shares slipped after hours on the in-line outlook before rising in the next session.
- Losses are larger. Net loss was $94.2 million in the third quarter, and gross profit was $25.3 million on $110.7 million of revenue (company 8-K, 10 November 2026).
- Cash use is heavy. Net cash used in operating activities was $213.8 million over the first nine months of 2026, plus $56.6 million of capital spending. Cash stood at $409.3 million, with $125.4 million of short-term investments, at 30 September 2026 (company 8-K).
- Reported growth is partly acquired. Revenue includes SciTec, acquired in late 2025, so the headline growth rate overstates organic launch progress.
Price setup
The shares closed at $26.61 on 11 November 2026. The 50-day moving average is $20.55 and the 200-day moving average is $26.82, so the last close sits just under the longer average and well above the shorter one. Over three months the shares are down 0.6%, measured from a $26.77 close on 13 August 2026.
The move has been fast. The shares closed at $15.18 on 5 November 2026, $20.76 on 6 November 2026 after the AST SpaceMobile announcement, $23.70 on 10 November 2026 before the report, and $26.61 after it. The $23.70 close marks the level before the report; the $15.18 close is the 52-week closing low. A sustained move above the 200-day average would put the shares above the level they have traded under since the slide from the $62.17 high of 26 May 2026.
SEC Form 4 filings from 18 August to 7 October 2026 show grants, option exercises and shares withheld for tax, including the chief executive's exercise of 43,278 options at $2.31 on 22 September 2026. None is an open-market purchase or sale. The registered resale lock-up expired on 12 August 2026, so pre-IPO holders can sell.
Catalysts ahead
- ~31 December 2026 (est.): End of management's fourth-quarter 2026 window for the Alpha Block II debut. A completed flight supports the fourth-quarter revenue the raised $440 million guidance floor requires; a slip past year-end puts the guide and the case at risk.
What would change the view
A daily close below $23.70, the 10 November 2026 close before the third-quarter report, which would erase the post-report gain; or a company schedule placing the Alpha Block II debut after 31 December 2026.
The risks this note tracks, each with what would confirm it:
- The Alpha Block II debut slips beyond the fourth-quarter 2026 window management set on 11 August 2026. Confirmed by: a company schedule placing the debut after 31 December 2026, or the quarter ending without the flight.
- Full-year 2026 revenue falls short of the $440–450 million guide raised on 10 November 2026. Confirmed by: reported 2026 revenue below $440 million at the fourth-quarter results, or a guidance cut before then.
- Cash use leads to new equity or convertible issuance. Confirmed by: an equity or convertible offering announced, or year-end cash and short-term investments well below the $534.7 million reported at 30 September 2026.
- A launch failure or test anomaly resets the Alpha schedule, as the April 2025 Flight 6 anomaly did. Confirmed by: a company disclosure of a flight or ground-test anomaly on Alpha Block II.
What it trades with
AST SpaceMobile is a named customer through the model agreements, and both stocks rose on 6 November 2026. They diverged on results: AST missed estimates on 10 November 2026 while Firefly beat (Benzinga). Rocket Lab posted record revenue but delayed its Neutron rocket in the same week (Benzinga, 10 November 2026), so launch-company shares react to the same flight-schedule news. SciTec's missile-warning work and the $981 million NITE-STAR program, a ceiling shared among several vendors, link part of Firefly's revenue to Space Force budgets rather than commercial launch demand.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Third-quarter 2026 revenue was $110.7 million, up 259% year over year; net loss was $94.2 million; gross profit was $25.3 million. Firefly Aerospace Q3 2026 results, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 · as of
- Backlog reached a record $1.7 billion, up from $1.5 billion at the end of the second quarter. Firefly Aerospace Q3 2026 results, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 · as of
- Full-year 2026 revenue guidance was raised from $420–450 million to $440–450 million, against a $439.69 million consensus. Benzinga, 10 November 2026 · as of
- Third-quarter adjusted loss of 45 cents per share beat the 48-cent estimate; revenue beat the $102.3 million estimate. Benzinga, 10 November 2026 · as of
- Cash was $409.3 million plus $125.4 million of short-term investments; nine-month net cash used in operations was $213.8 million. Firefly Aerospace Q3 2026 results, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 · as of
- Firefly signed Synspective for up to 10 Alpha launches through 2030. Firefly Aerospace announcement via Benzinga · as of
- B. Riley raised its Buy-rated price target to $54 from $40; Barclays raised its Equal-Weight target to $35. Benzinga analyst notes, 11 November 2026 · as of
- Management moved the Alpha Block II debut to the fourth quarter of 2026. Spaceflight Now, 11 August 2026 · as of
Sources
- Firefly Aerospace Inc. - Form 8-K - FY2026 · sec.gov
- Firefly Aerospace Tops Expectations in Q3, Lifts 2026 Outlook · benzinga.com
- Firefly Aerospace Announces Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results With Record Backlog of $1.7 Billion · globenewswire.com ·
- Firefly Aerospace Inc (FLY) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Highlights: Record $1.7 Billion Backlog and Transformative $1.3 Billion AST SpaceMobile Deal · gurufocus.com
- Firefly Aerospace (NASDAQ:FLY) Posts Q3 Beat as Revenue Tops Estimates, Shares Slip on In-Line Outlook · chartmill.com
- Firefly Aerospace pushes debut of Alpha Block 2 rocket to the fourth quarter of 2026 · spaceflightnow.com ·
- Finviz ·
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