LTH · Life Time Group Holdings
Conviction · Medium · more likely to lead the S&P 500 over the next three months, by a modest margin
Wrong if: a weekly close below $43.00
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
8.2% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
The red mark is the price level of the published kill line: a close through it (a weekly close, on a weekly line) would prove the research note wrong on price. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026; a dot left of the mark has closed through its line.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a weekly close below $43.00, on record since 10 November 2026; only a weekly close settles it. The shares are up 2.6% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A weekly close below $43.00, under the $43.16 10 August sponsor placement price, which would erase the post-report gain. A cut to the 8.5%–8.7% full-year comparable-center revenue outlook would also break the case.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Consumer Discretionary
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 29 October 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 894
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +14.2
- Gross margin (%)
- 46.9
- Operating margin (%)
- 17.7
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- −206
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- −1,206
- Price to earnings (×)
- 24.9
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 3.5
All filed numbers
What Life Time Group Holdings reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 894 | +14.2 | 46.9 | 17.7 |
| first filed | 866 | +13.7 | 47.6 | 17.3 |
| first filed | 789 | +11.7 | 48.4 | 17.1 |
| first filed | 745 | +12.3 | 49.1 | 17.4 |
| first filed | 783 | +12.9 | 47.1 | 17.3 |
| first filed | 762 | +14.0 | 47.0 | 14.2 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 144 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 419 | 107 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +1.3 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 910 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 1,117 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | −206 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 286 |
| Debt ($M) long-term debt | 1,492 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | −1,206 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) +8.5% on a year | 60.7 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 25.8 |
| Inventory ($M) | 62.5 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 3,452 |
| Market value ($M) | 10,449 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 11,655 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 3.5 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | 20.4 |
| Price to earnings (×) | 24.9 |
| Price to book value (×) | 3.0 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | −2.0 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 6.3% of shares outstanding sold short, 5.0 days of average trading to cover, −0.9% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $430.0M |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $1.8B |
The thesis
Life Time Group Holdings' premium-club growth is confirmed by its 29 October 2026 third-quarter report, which beat estimates and raised the full-year comparable-center revenue outlook to 8.5%–8.7%. The call is that the shares are modestly more likely than not to beat the S&P 500 over the next three months. The fourth-quarter report and the six club openings planned for the quarter settle it.
Third-quarter revenue was $893.5 million, up 14.2% from a year earlier, against a consensus estimate of $874.7 million (company results release and news reports, 29 October 2026). Adjusted earnings per share were $0.51 against a $0.42 estimate. Comparable-center revenue grew 8.7%, and the full-year outlook rose from 7.9%–8.3%.
The market has already paid for the raise. The shares closed at $47.52 on 11 November 2026, 7.2% above the close of three months earlier (adjusted daily closes), and every sell-side target cited after the report except Mizuho's sits only modestly above that price.
Bullish and bearish views on Life Time Group Holdings, Inc.
The bull case on Life Time Group Holdings, Inc. (LTH), in brief: guidance was raised. The bear case: comparable growth is slowing.
Bull case
- Guidance was raised. Full-year revenue guidance is $3,380 million–$3,390 million and adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) guidance is $958 million–$962 million (Life Time Q3 2026 results, 29 October 2026).
- Profit grew faster than revenue. Adjusted EBITDA rose 16.5% to $256.3 million on revenue growth of 14.2%, and adjusted earnings per share reached $0.51 (Life Time Q3 2026 results, 29 October 2026).
- Price and mix drive growth. Center memberships were 858,747 at 30 September 2026, up 2.2% year over year across 196 centers, while average membership revenue per member rose (Life Time Q3 2026 results, 29 October 2026).
- Analysts set higher targets after the report. Barclays and KeyBanc each set $55, and Wells Fargo and Guggenheim each set $53, on 30 October 2026 (Benzinga analyst headlines). The 11 November 2026 close is below all four.
- The shares hold above the sponsor placement price. Leonard Green entities sold 5,118,099 shares at $43.16 on 10 August 2026 (Schedule 13D amendment), and the shares closed at $47.52 on 11 November 2026.
Bear case
- Comparable growth is slowing. Comparable-center revenue growth was 8.7% in the third quarter after 9.1% in the second (Life Time results, 30 July 2026 and 29 October 2026). The 8.5%–8.7% full-year range leaves little room for a weaker fourth quarter.
- Spending is heavy. Full-year 2026 growth capital expenditure is guided to $885 million–$910 million, and 14 new clubs are planned, seven opened by 30 September 2026 and six expected in the fourth quarter (Life Time Q3 2026 results, 29 October 2026). New large clubs take several quarters to ramp.
- Executives sold after the report. Chief Executive Officer Bahram Akradi sold 264,000 shares at $45.04 and Chief Financial Officer Erik Weaver sold 6,713 shares at $44.83, both on 30 October 2026 (SEC Form 4, filed 3 November 2026).
- Sponsor stakes remain. Director John Danhakl, a Leonard Green affiliate, sold 2,879,154 shares at $43.80 on 26 August 2026 (SEC Form 4). TPG held about 6.1% after the May 2026 transactions, and Leonard Green's residual stake is about 2.6%.
- Membership growth is modest. Center memberships grew 2.2% in the third quarter, so revenue leans on price and mix. Premium dues are a discretionary monthly cost.
Price setup
The shares closed at $47.52 on 11 November 2026. The 52-week intraday high is $48.61, set on 5 November 2026, and the last close is 2.2% below it. The close of $47.75 on 5 November 2026 is the highest close in the recent sessions, and closes since 4 November 2026 have held between $46.89 and $47.75.
The 50-day average is $42.09 and the 200-day average is $35.97 (adjusted daily closes, as of 11 November 2026). The shares sit above both. The close three months earlier, on 13 August 2026, was $44.31, and the 52-week closing low is $24.66 on 17 November 2025.
The shares cleared the $43.16 August placement price after the 29 October 2026 report and have stayed above it. A return below that price would put the shares back under the level where sponsors last sold.
Catalysts ahead
- ~31 December 2026 (est.): Six fourth-quarter club openings complete the 14-club 2026 plan. Openings feed 2027 revenue; slippage would weaken the growth case behind heavy capital spending.
- ~February 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 results. Shows whether comparable-center revenue growth lands inside the 8.5%–8.7% outlook.
What would change the view
A weekly close below $43.00, under the $43.16 10 August sponsor placement price, which would erase the post-report gain. A cut to the 8.5%–8.7% full-year comparable-center revenue outlook would also break the case.
The risks this note tracks, each with what would confirm it:
- Comparable-center revenue growth keeps slowing from 9.1% in the second quarter and 8.7% in the third, and misses the 8.5%–8.7% full-year range. Confirmed by: a fourth-quarter result or guidance update below the full-year range at the next report.
- Further sponsor or insider supply weighs on the shares. Confirmed by: a new TPG or Leonard Green offering, a Form 144 filing, or further executive open-market sales on Form 4.
- Heavy growth capital spending of $885 million–$910 million does not translate into new-club revenue on schedule. Confirmed by: fewer than 14 openings in 2026 or lower new-club revenue in 2027 guidance.
- A softer consumer weakens premium dues growth, since membership counts are rising only 2.2% a year. Confirmed by: center memberships falling or average membership revenue growth slowing in the fourth-quarter report.
What it trades with
Life Time trades with premium consumer-discretionary names, because dues at this price point are a monthly discretionary cost. It is also sensitive to interest rates, since growth is funded by heavy capital spending and sale-leaseback transactions. Sell-side sentiment after the October target increases and further sponsor or insider selling are the other moving parts. No theme grouping currently carries the name.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Third-quarter 2026 revenue was $893.5 million, up 14.2% year over year; adjusted EBITDA was $256.3 million, up 16.5%. Life Time Q3 2026 results release · as of
- Third-quarter comparable-center revenue grew 8.7%; full-year comparable-center outlook raised to 8.5%–8.7% from 7.9%–8.3%. Life Time Q3 2026 results release · as of
- Full-year 2026 revenue guidance is $3,380 million–$3,390 million; adjusted EBITDA guidance is $958 million–$962 million. Life Time Q3 2026 results release · as of
- Center memberships were 858,747 at 30 September 2026, up 2.2% year over year, across 196 centers. Life Time Q3 2026 results release · as of
- Full-year 2026 growth capital expenditure guided to $885 million–$910 million; 14 new clubs planned, seven opened by 30 September and six expected in the fourth quarter. Life Time Q3 2026 results release · as of
- Price targets after the report: Barclays $55, KeyBanc $55, Wells Fargo $53, Guggenheim $53. Benzinga analyst headlines · as of
- CEO Bahram Akradi sold 264,000 shares at $45.04 and CFO Erik Weaver sold 6,713 shares at $44.83 on 30 October 2026. SEC Form 4 filings, filed 3 November 2026 · as of
- Leonard Green entities sold 5,118,099 shares at $43.16 in the August 2026 placement and kept about 2.6%. Schedule 13D amendment · as of
Sources