GOLF · Acushnet Holdings
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $93.52
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
11.3% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $93.52, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 8.2% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $93.52, which would put the shares back over their 200-day average and show them leading the S&P 500. Full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA reported above the $470 million top of company guidance would also show that.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Consumer Discretionary
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 4 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 649
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- −1.3
- Gross margin (%)
- 49.6
- Operating margin (%)
- 12.4
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 238
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- −769
- Price to earnings (×)
- 21.5
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 2.0
All filed numbers
What Acushnet Holdings reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 649 | −1.3 | 49.6 | 12.4 |
| first filed | 820 | +13.8 | 54.4 | 21.5 |
| first filed | 753 | +7.1 | 47.2 | 16.0 |
| first filed | 477 | +7.2 | 44.1 | −3.8 |
| first filed | 658 | +6.0 | 48.5 | 14.1 |
| first filed | 721 | +5.4 | 49.2 | 15.2 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 67.4 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 221 | 49.2 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | −1.1 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 319 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 80.4 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 238 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 108 |
| Debt ($M) non-current long-term debt plus current maturities plus short-term borrowings | 877 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | −769 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) | Not reported |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 359 |
| Inventory ($M) | 573 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 867 |
| Market value ($M) | 4,745 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 5,513 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 2.0 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | 15.3 |
| Price to earnings (×) | 21.5 |
| Price to book value (×) | 5.5 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 5.0 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 4.4% of shares outstanding sold short, 7.6 days of average trading to cover, −7.5% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 days | Not available yet | Not available yet |
| 12 months | Not available yet | Not available yet |
The thesis
Acushnet Holdings, maker of Titleist balls and clubs and FootJoy shoes and gloves, is more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. Third-quarter 2026 sales fell 1.3% to $649.2 million, and the narrowed adjusted EBITDA guide of $455–470 million (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) includes about $30 million of net tariff refunds that do not recur. The fourth-quarter report, expected in late February 2027, settles whether the guide holds.
The company reaffirmed full-year sales of about $2,650–2,675 million and raised the low end of the EBITDA range from $450 million on 4 November 2026 (company release). The shares closed at $81.46 on 12 November 2026, down from $85.03 on 10 November 2026, and are 9.3% lower than three months earlier on adjusted closes.
The market has already priced in a weak report: the shares sit 31.9% below the intraday 52-week high of $119.65 set on 6 July 2026, and Benzinga's consensus page, which shows the 5 November 2026 price, lists an average target of $82 from five analysts at a Hold rating.
Bullish and bearish views on Acushnet Holdings Corp.
The bull case on Acushnet Holdings Corp. (GOLF), in brief: guidance was narrowed upward. The bear case: third-quarter results missed estimates.
Bull case
- Guidance was narrowed upward. On 4 November 2026 the company lifted the bottom of its adjusted EBITDA range to $455 million and held the top at $470 million. Nine-month adjusted EBITDA was $467.8 million, up 16.8% (company release).
- Golf balls are growing. Third-quarter golf ball sales rose 3.3% to $209.1 million (company release, 4 November 2026).
- Nine-month sales are still up. Net sales for the first nine months were $2,222.2 million, up 6.8% from a year earlier (company release, 4 November 2026).
- Earnings per share grew over the year. Third-quarter earnings were $0.83 against $0.81 a year earlier, and nine-month diluted earnings were $4.27 against $3.68 (company release, 4 November 2026).
- The company buys back stock. It repurchased 616,749 shares in the third quarter at an average of $89.81, and bought 583,527 shares from Magnus Holdings for $52.5 million on 15 October 2026 (company release). Form 4 filings show the disposition to the company at $89.97 per share.
Bear case
- Third-quarter results missed estimates. Earnings of $0.83 trailed a $1.03 estimate, and sales of $649.23 million trailed a $652.33 million estimate (news summary, 4 November 2026). Adjusted EBITDA fell 3.3% to $114.7 million, and the margin slipped to 17.7% from 18.0% (company release).
- Softness has spread beyond clubs. Third-quarter FootJoy sales fell 7.5% to $126.2 million, golf gear fell 9.5% to $55.4 million, and golf clubs fell 2.0% to $220.7 million (company release, 4 November 2026).
- Tariff refunds prop up earnings. Nine-month adjusted EBITDA includes about $33.8 million of refunds, and the full-year range includes about $30 million (company release, 4 November 2026). A TradingKey summary of the call says the guide implies fourth-quarter sales near $440 million and an adjusted EBITDA loss of about $5 million at the midpoint.
- The consensus target is at the share price. Benzinga's page, showing the 5 November 2026 price, lists an average target of $82 and a Hold consensus from five analysts. The 12 November 2026 close of $81.46 is just under it.
- Debt is high relative to cash. Total debt was about $876.6 million against $108.1 million of cash and restricted cash on 30 September 2026, after $500 million of 5.625% notes priced in July (company release).
Price setup
The last close was $81.46 on 12 November 2026. That is below the 50-day average of $82.91 and well below the 200-day average of $93.46 (adjusted daily closes, as of 12 November 2026).
Since the report the shares have moved in a narrow range: $83.62 on 5 November 2026, $80.74 on 6 November 2026, $84.61 on 9 November 2026, $85.03 on 10 November 2026 and $83.90 on 11 November 2026. The 52-week closing low of $77.55 was set on 20 November 2025.
The shares trade below the $89.81 average price the company paid for third-quarter repurchases. The only recent Form 4 filings are the 15 October 2026 disposition of 583,527 shares to the company and small director stock awards on 18 September 2026 at $80.55; they show no open-market insider sales.
Catalysts ahead
- 18 December 2026: Quarterly dividend of $0.255 per share payable. Shows whether the capital return continues after the company bought back the Magnus Holdings block.
- ~25 February 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 results. Tests the weak fourth quarter the guide implies and whether the roughly $30 million tariff refund is recognized as guided.
What would change the view
A daily close above $93.52, which would put the shares back over their 200-day average and show them leading the S&P 500. Full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA reported above the $470 million top of company guidance would also show that.
What it trades with
Acushnet trades with discretionary golf spending and with other consumer-discretionary equipment and apparel makers. Its sales depend on rounds played, retail inventory and new-product timing, so quarters track golf demand more than the broad market. Tariff and trade policy reach it through costs and through the refund assumption in guidance.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Third-quarter 2026 net sales were $649.2 million, down 1.3% (down 0.6% in constant currency); adjusted EBITDA was $114.7 million, down 3.3%, at a 17.7% margin versus 18.0%. Acushnet third-quarter 2026 results release (SEC Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1) · as of
- Third-quarter segment sales: golf balls $209.1 million (up 3.3%), golf clubs $220.7 million (down 2.0%), FootJoy $126.2 million (down 7.5%), golf gear $55.4 million (down 9.5%). Acushnet third-quarter 2026 results release (SEC Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1) · as of
- Full-year sales guidance reaffirmed at about $2,650–2,675 million; adjusted EBITDA guidance narrowed to about $455–470 million from $450–470 million, including about $30 million of net tariff refunds. Acushnet third-quarter 2026 results release (SEC Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1) · as of
- Nine-month adjusted EBITDA was $467.8 million, up 16.8%, and included about $33.8 million of tariff refunds; nine-month net sales were $2,222.2 million, up 6.8%. Acushnet third-quarter 2026 results release (SEC Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1) · as of
- Third-quarter earnings per share were $0.83 against a $1.03 estimate, and sales of $649.23 million against a $652.33 million estimate. News headline summary of the third-quarter 2026 report · as of
- The company bought 583,527 shares from Magnus Holdings for $52.5 million on 15 October 2026 and repurchased 616,749 shares in the third quarter at an average of $89.81. Acushnet third-quarter 2026 results release (SEC Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1) · as of
- Form 4 filings by Misto Holdings Corp. and three directors report a disposition to the company of 583,527 shares at $89.97 on 15 October 2026. SEC Form 4 filings, 16 October 2026 and 19 October 2026 · as of
- Cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash were $108.1 million and total debt about $876.6 million at quarter end. Acushnet third-quarter 2026 results release (SEC Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1) · as of
Sources