VRDN · Viridian Therapeutics
Conviction · Medium · more likely to lead the S&P 500 over the next three months, by a modest margin
Wrong if: a daily close below $24.50
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
26.0% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
The red mark is the price level of the published kill line: a close through it (a weekly close, on a weekly line) would prove the research note wrong on price. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026; a dot left of the mark has closed through its line.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close below $24.50, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are up 33.7% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close below $24.50, the price of the chief legal officer's 19 August 2026 open-market sale, which would give back both November catalysts; fourth-quarter Lumvoa net revenue below the third quarter's $24.7 million would also break the case.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Catalyst
The business · as of
Viridian Therapeutics develops and sells antibody drugs for thyroid eye disease and autoimmune conditions. Its first product, Lumvoa (veligrotug), an infused treatment approved by the FDA in June 2026, is sold in the US; the company reported $25.75 million of revenue in the quarter ended 30 September 2026, $24.7 million of it Lumvoa net product sales.
What is changing, and what follows · as of
- What is changing now
- On 4 November 2026 Viridian reported $24.7 million of Lumvoa sales in its first full quarter, and on 9 November 2026 VRDN-008 lowered IgG by 74% at peak in a phase 1 study.
- What follows for the company
- Selling, general and administrative expense rose to $57.6 million in the third quarter from $24.3 million a year earlier; cash was $955.2 million at 30 September 2026, with an elegrobart filing planned for early 2027.
- What follows for its customers, suppliers and competitors
- Lumvoa competes with Amgen (AMGN) Tepezza in thyroid eye disease; VRDN-008 would enter an FcRn market led by argenx (ARGX), with Immunovant (IMVT) and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) also in it.
What the price assumes · as of
At the 13 November 2026 close (filed figures to 4 November 2026) the shares trade at 110.8 times sales and 6.0 times book, with earnings multiples not meaningful and a free-cash-flow yield of −9.8%, for an enterprise value of $2,914 million; that holds only if Lumvoa revenue grows many times over from $25.75 million a quarter before the $343 million yearly cash burn uses up $591 million of net cash.
Key figures from the filings · Health Care
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 4 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 25.8
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- −63.5
- Gross margin (%)
- 94.1
- Operating margin (%)
- −401.8
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- −343
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- 591
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 110.8
- Free-cash-flow yield (%)
- −9.8
All filed numbers
What Viridian Therapeutics reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 25.8 | −63.5 | 94.1 | −401.8 |
| first filed | 0.3 | +278.7 | — | −44460.6 |
| first filed | 0.1 | +95.8 | — | −82389.4 |
| first filed | 0.1 | +83.3 | — | −92991.7 |
| first filed | 70.6 | +81958.1 | 100.0 | −56.7 |
| first filed | 0.1 | +4.2 | — | −142356.0 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | Not reported |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: −454 | −101 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) quarter to 30 September 2025, filed 4 November 2026; against the quarter to 30 September 2024 | +23.1 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | −342 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 1.9 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | −343 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 955 |
| Debt ($M) convertible debt plus secured debt plus other long-term debt | 364 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | 591 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) at 30 June 2026, filed 6 August 2026; −37.2% on a year | 0.2 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 29.8 |
| Inventory ($M) | 0.1 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 581 |
| Market value ($M) | 3,506 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 2,914 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 110.8 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to book value (×) | 6.0 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | −9.8 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 15.8% of shares outstanding sold short, 8.0 days of average trading to cover, +0.2% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $348K |
| 12 monthsfrom | $20.0M | $419K |
Linked companies · as of
The thesis
Viridian Therapeutics' shares are modestly more likely than not to beat the S&P 500 over the next three months. Lumvoa, its first drug, beat analysts' sales estimate in its first full quarter, and VRDN-008 data on 9 November 2026 added a second program in autoimmune disease. Fourth-quarter Lumvoa sales, expected around late February 2027, show whether the launch keeps its pace. The elegrobart filing planned for the first quarter of 2027 shows whether Viridian can offer an at-home alternative to Amgen's Tepezza.
The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved Lumvoa (veligrotug), an intravenous antibody for thyroid eye disease, in June 2026, according to the company's 10-Q. Net product revenue was $24.7 million in the quarter ended 30 September 2026, with more than 100 patients on therapy at quarter end, per the company's 4 November 2026 release. GuruFocus cited a $19.16 million estimate.
On 9 November 2026 the company reported phase 1 results for VRDN-008, its neonatal Fc receptor (FcRn) inhibitor. Two doses given under the skin lowered immunoglobulin G (IgG), the antibody class behind several autoimmune diseases, by 74% at peak, and the effect held through eight weeks, per the company release. Viridian plans a pivotal trial in myasthenia gravis from mid-2027, pending regulatory feedback.
The shares closed at $30.87 on 13 November 2026, up 33.7% over three months, so the price already carries the third-quarter sales beat and the VRDN-008 data. The rating is medium because the case rests on one quarter of sales, and no new sales figure arrives until the fourth-quarter report.
Bullish and bearish views on Viridian Therapeutics, Inc.
The bull case on Viridian Therapeutics, Inc. (VRDN), in brief: the first full quarter beat the estimate. The bear case: the VRDN-008 study was very small.
Bull case
- The first full quarter beat the estimate. Lumvoa net product revenue was $24.7 million in the quarter ended 30 September 2026, against the $19.16 million estimate GuruFocus cited. Chief executive Steve Mahoney said on the 4 November 2026 call that the launch "has exceeded expectations."
- VRDN-008 data support eight-week dosing. The 9 November 2026 release reported a 74% peak IgG reduction, a half-life of 15 to 18 days and no serious adverse events. The company said albumin and low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol were spared, a known weakness of some FcRn drugs.
- Brokers raised targets after both events. On 5 November 2026 Leerink Partners raised its target to $54 and RBC Capital to $41 from $38, per Benzinga, and Truist reaffirmed its Buy rating, per fiscal.ai. Wedbush moved to $44 from $42 on 9 November 2026, and Wells Fargo went to $39 on 10 November 2026, five days after a raise to $34 from $31.
- A permanent billing code starts in January. The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services assigned Lumvoa permanent code J3242, effective 1 January 2027, per the third-quarter release. A permanent code usually simplifies reimbursement for infusion sites.
- The at-home follow-on is close to filing. Viridian expects to file its Biologics License Application (BLA) for elegrobart in the first quarter of 2027, per the 4 November 2026 release. The company plans an autoinjector with every-four-week and every-eight-week dosing at home.
- The balance sheet funds the plan. Cash, equivalents and marketable securities were $955.2 million at 30 September 2026, up from $874.7 million at 31 December 2025, against $364 million of debt, per the 10-Q. The company says this cash plus product revenue funds current plans "through profitability."
Bear case
- The VRDN-008 study was very small. TipRanks, summarising the 9 November 2026 disclosure, reported six healthy volunteers. That sample is too small to rank VRDN-008 against approved FcRn drugs, and no patients with myasthenia gravis have been dosed.
- Launch revenue may include stocking. The $24.7 million third-quarter figure is the first full quarter of sales and may include first orders from distributors and infusion sites. The fourth-quarter report is the first check against the previous quarter.
- Amgen's under-the-skin Tepezza works. Amgen reported on 6 April 2026 that Tepezza given by on-body injector produced a 76.7% proptosis response at week 24 against 19.6% for placebo, per HCPLive. An approval before elegrobart would blunt Viridian's at-home advantage.
- Spending is rising fast. Third-quarter selling, general and administrative expense was $57.6 million against $24.3 million a year earlier, and the net loss was $101.2 million, per the 10-Q. Free cash flow over the four quarters to 30 September 2026 was negative $343 million.
- Reported revenue fell from a year earlier. Total third-quarter revenue was $25.75 million against $70.57 million a year earlier, per the 10-Q's XBRL data. The year-ago quarter predates Lumvoa's June 2026 approval, so headline revenue comparisons do not track the launch.
- Debt and royalties take a cut. Viridian carries $250 million of 1.75% convertible notes due 2032, and DRI collects tiered royalties starting at 7.5% of annual US Lumvoa net sales up to $600 million, per the 10-Q.
- An insider sold into the summer gains. Chief legal officer Jennifer Tousignant exercised 10,000 options and sold 14,212 shares on the open market on 19 August 2026, per an SEC Form 4. Chief medical officer Radhika Tripuraneni exercised 40,000 options on 14 August 2026 with no sale reported.
Price setup
The shares closed at $30.87 on 13 November 2026, 10.0% below the 52-week intraday high of $34.29 set on 14 January 2026. The 52-week closing low was $13.30 on 29 April 2026. The 3-month gain of 33.7% runs from a $23.09 close on 17 August 2026.
The VRDN-008 data moved the price in one step. The shares closed at $28.49 on 6 November 2026, the last session before the data, and at $30.19 on 9 November 2026, the day of the release. They reached $31.25 on 11 November 2026, eased to $30.48 on 12 November 2026 and closed at $30.87 on 13 November 2026, holding the post-data gain for four sessions.
At the 13 November 2026 close the 50-day moving average was $22.75 and the 200-day moving average $21.56, both well under the price. The January high is the nearest prior level above the price; a close above it would put the shares at a new 52-week high. The kill line sits below the 6 November 2026 pre-data close and above both moving averages.
Published broker targets all sit above the last close: Wells Fargo at $39, RBC Capital at $41, Wedbush at $44 and Leerink Partners at $54.
Catalysts ahead
- 16 November 2026: Jefferies Global Healthcare Conference fireside chat in London, 11:30 GMT. It is management's first scheduled appearance after the VRDN-008 data and may add detail on Lumvoa patient starts in the fourth quarter.
- 17 November 2026: UBS Global Biopharma London Conference fireside chat, 16:40 GMT. A second appearance gives management another chance to update on Lumvoa demand and the FcRn trial plans.
- ~31 December 2026 (est.): Planned start of the VRDN-292 (TSHR antibody) phase 1 trial in Graves' disease. An on-time fourth-quarter start shows the thyroid pipeline beyond Lumvoa and elegrobart advancing as guided.
- 1 January 2027: Permanent billing code J3242 for Lumvoa takes effect. Sales after this date test whether a permanent code eases reimbursement and speeds patient starts.
- ~26 February 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter 2026 financial report. It is the first test of Lumvoa demand against the third quarter's $24.7 million.
- ~31 March 2027 (est.): Elegrobart Biologics License Application submission to the FDA. The filing advances the at-home autoinjector Viridian needs to compete with Amgen's Tepezza, including its under-the-skin version.
What would change the view
A daily close below $24.50, the price of the chief legal officer's 19 August 2026 open-market sale, which would give back both November catalysts; fourth-quarter Lumvoa net revenue below the third quarter's $24.7 million would also break the case.
The risks this note tracks, each with what would confirm it:
- Lumvoa's first full-quarter revenue may include initial stocking by distributors and infusion sites, overstating underlying demand. Confirmed by: fourth-quarter net revenue below $24.7 million, or revenue growing more slowly than patients on therapy.
- Amgen's under-the-skin Tepezza could reach patients before elegrobart and blunt its at-home advantage. Confirmed by: an Amgen regulatory filing or FDA approval for under-the-skin Tepezza before Viridian has filed its elegrobart application.
- VRDN-008's six-volunteer result may not carry over to patients with myasthenia gravis. Confirmed by: regulatory feedback delaying the mid-2027 pivotal start, or later data showing albumin or LDL effects or weaker IgG reduction in patients.
- Commercial spending could outrun Lumvoa revenue and force new financing. Confirmed by: a new share or convertible offering, or quarterly selling, general and administrative expense rising faster than product revenue.
- Elegrobart's regulatory timetable could slip. Confirmed by: company guidance moving the application past the first quarter of 2027, or an FDA request for additional trial work.
- After a 33.7% three-month gain, the shares have no new sales figure until the fourth-quarter report. Confirmed by: management commentary at the 16 November 2026 or 17 November 2026 conferences signalling slower fourth-quarter patient starts.
What it trades with
Viridian's own drivers are company-specific: Lumvoa sales, the elegrobart filing and Amgen's (AMGN) progress with under-the-skin Tepezza in thyroid eye disease. Amgen news on Tepezza bears directly on Lumvoa's market. In FcRn inhibitors, data from argenx (ARGX), Immunovant (IMVT) and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) set the bar VRDN-008 is measured against.
A common market view is that small and mid-cap biotech shares move with sector sentiment and interest-rate expectations, so a broad biotech sell-off could pull the shares down without any company news. The spread of 63-session returns across liquid US stocks had a standard deviation of 27% in 2026, so a three-month move of the size seen since August is common across the market.
Caveats
- Share count differs by measure: 113,558,449 common shares at 2 November 2026 per the 10-Q, and 125,636,093 as-converted shares at 30 September 2026 per the company's results release. Form 10-Q for the third quarter of 2026 and third-quarter 2026 results release · as of
- DRI holds a revenue participation on Lumvoa, with tiered royalties starting at 7.5% of annual US net sales up to $600 million. Form 10-Q for the third quarter of 2026 · as of
- Viridian has $250 million of 1.75% convertible senior notes due 2032, issued in May 2026, which can convert into shares. Form 10-Q for the third quarter of 2026 · as of
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Lumvoa net product revenue was $24.7 million in the third quarter of 2026, with more than 100 patients on therapy at quarter end. Viridian third-quarter 2026 results release · as of
- VRDN-008 lowered IgG by 74% at peak after two under-the-skin doses, with the reduction sustained through eight weeks, a 15 to 18 day half-life and no serious adverse events. Viridian press release, 9 November 2026 · as of
- The VRDN-008 phase 1 study enrolled six healthy volunteers. TipRanks company-announcement summary, 9 November 2026 · as of
- Wedbush raised its Viridian price target to $44 from $42 on 9 November 2026, and Wells Fargo raised its target to $39 on 10 November 2026, after a raise to $34 from $31 on 5 November 2026. Benzinga, 10 November 2026 · as of
- Cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities totaled $955.2 million, up from $874.7 million at 31 December 2025. Viridian third-quarter 2026 results release · as of
- Third-quarter net loss was $101.2 million, with selling, general and administrative expense of $57.6 million against $24.3 million a year earlier. Form 10-Q for the third quarter of 2026 · as of
- Viridian expects to submit its elegrobart Biologics License Application to the FDA in the first quarter of 2027. Viridian third-quarter 2026 results release · as of
- Amgen's on-body-injector Tepezza produced a 76.7% week-24 proptosis response against 19.6% for placebo in a phase 3 trial in active thyroid eye disease. HCPLive, 6 April 2026 · as of
Sources
- Viridian Therapeutics Reports Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results and Highlights Recent Business Progress · biospace.com ·
- Viridian Therapeutics Announces Positive VRDN-008 Phase 1 Results Supporting Potential Best-in-Class Profile with Every-8-Week Subcutaneous Dosing · biospace.com ·
- SEC EDGAR
- Viridian (VRDN) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript · fool.com ·
- Viridian Therapeutics Reports Q3 2026 Results: Revenue of $24.7 Million Exceeds $19.16 Million Estimate · gurufocus.com
- Tepezza OBI Achieves Proptosis Reduction in Thyroid Eye Disease in Phase 3 Trial · hcplive.com ·
- Viridian Reports Positive Phase 1 Results for VRDN-008 · tipranks.com
- Viridian Therapeutics Stock Rallies on Positive VRDN-008 Trial Results, Eyes 8-Week Dosing · benzinga.com
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