ARQQ · Arqit Quantum
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $18.93
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
22.0% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $18.93, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 39.4% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $18.93, which would put the shares back above their 50-day average and show them leading the S&P 500 again. Full-year revenue above the $1,000,000 top of the preliminary range would also show the case failing.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Technology
Filed figures are not available: no quarterly report in US GAAP with the SEC (a foreign filer reports on Form 20-F or 40-F).
All filed numbers
What Arqit Quantum reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): the share of shares outstanding is not available, 7.2 days of average trading to cover, +0.9% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $369K |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $2.9M |
The thesis
Arqit Quantum is more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. Preliminary fiscal 2026 revenue of $975,000 to $1,000,000 missed the roughly $1.2 million that existing contracts were expected to produce, after a Middle East customer's contract stopped producing revenue. The full-year results, which the company says will come in December 2026, show whether a NATO contract and about $51 million of cash restart growth.
The company published the preliminary figures on 8 October 2026 in a Form 6-K (exhibit 99.1). They are unaudited, and the company's independent accounting firm has not reviewed them.
The shares closed at $14.86 on 12 November 2026. That is 39.0% lower than three months earlier, when the close was $24.36 on 14 August 2026. A sharp rebound from $12.28 on 5 November 2026 to $16.86 on 9 November 2026 has since faded over three sessions. No company release in that window explains the rebound.
Bullish and bearish views on Arqit Quantum Inc.
The bull case on Arqit Quantum Inc. (ARQQ), in brief: a NATO contract is new revenue. The bear case: second-half revenue fell.
Bull case
- A NATO contract is new revenue. On 6 October 2026 Arqit signed, within a winning consortium, to provide secure networking services to NATO. The contract runs one year with two annual renewal options, and the value was not disclosed (Form 6-K, 8 October 2026).
- Sirius links Arqit to defence work. Arqit announced a strategic investment in Sirius Computer on 20 October 2026 to develop quantum-safe defence communications. Terms were not disclosed.
- Cash was about $51 million. The preliminary figure is for 30 September 2026 (Form 6-K, 8 October 2026).
- Contract wins continued. Arqit signed seven new contracts in fiscal 2026, including three for its Encryption Intelligence product in the second half (Form 6-K, 8 October 2026).
- Full-year revenue still grew. Preliminary fiscal 2026 revenue of $975,000 to $1,000,000 compares with $530,000 in fiscal 2025.
Bear case
- Second-half revenue fell. Second-half revenue of $355,000 to $380,000 is below the $463,000 of the second half of fiscal 2025 and the $623,000 of the first half of fiscal 2026 (Form 6-K, 8 October 2026).
- One contract carried too much weight. Arqit stopped recognising revenue under a material contract with a Middle East customer affected by geopolitical events (Form 6-K, 8 October 2026).
- Cash burn dwarfs revenue. Operating cash outflow was $25.7 million for the half-year to 31 March 2026, against $623,000 of revenue (first-half fiscal 2026 operating review).
- Share sales fund the business. The company raised about $18 million through at-the-market sales in that half. A programme set up in January 2026 permits sales of up to $125 million.
- Executives sold shares. SEC Form 4 filings show chief executive Andrew Leaver sold 2,573 shares at $16.40 on 13 October 2026. On 6 October 2026 the chief operating officer, the US general manager and a director also sold small blocks at $24.19.
Price setup
The shares closed at $14.86 on 12 November 2026. That is below both the 50-day average of $18.82 and the 200-day average of $17.74, calculated from adjusted daily closes.
The 52-week closing low is $11.78, set on 27 March 2026. The latest close is 54.6% below the 52-week intraday high of $32.72, set on 12 November 2025.
The close of $12.28 on 5 November 2026 was followed by $15.96 on 6 November 2026 and $16.86 on 9 November 2026. Closes then slipped to $15.74 on 10 November 2026, $15.59 on 11 November 2026 and $14.86 on 12 November 2026. The shares have not recovered the 50-day average.
Crowding evidence consists of executive selling in October, an at-the-market programme that allows new shares to be sold into the market, and a results report expected in December.
Catalysts ahead
- ~9 December 2026 (est.): Full fiscal 2026 results and conference call; the company has said only 'December 2026'. Confirms the unaudited revenue and cash figures, shows second-half cash burn and share sales, and states whether the Middle East contract is written off.
What would change the view
A daily close above $18.93, which would put the shares back above their 50-day average and show them leading the S&P 500 again. Full-year revenue above the $1,000,000 top of the preliminary range would also show the case failing.
What it trades with
Arqit's revenue is too small for its shares to follow earnings. The price has tracked sentiment toward quantum-safe security and defence-linked technology. The NATO contract and the Sirius stake tie the company to European defence communications spending. The Middle East contract loss shows its exposure to regional geopolitical events.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Preliminary fiscal 2026 revenue of $975,000 to $1,000,000, against $530,000 in fiscal 2025 Arqit Form 6-K exhibit 99.1, 8 October 2026 · as of
- Second-half fiscal 2026 revenue of $355,000 to $380,000, against $463,000 a year earlier and $623,000 in the first half Arqit Form 6-K exhibit 99.1, 8 October 2026 · as of
- Arqit stopped recognising revenue under a material contract with a Middle East customer affected by geopolitical events Arqit Form 6-K exhibit 99.1, 8 October 2026 · as of
- Cash and cash equivalents of about $51 million; preliminary and not reviewed by the independent accounting firm Arqit Form 6-K exhibit 99.1, 8 October 2026 · as of
- Arqit signed, within a winning consortium, a one-year NATO secure networking contract with two annual renewal options; value not disclosed Arqit Form 6-K exhibit 99.1, 8 October 2026 · as of
- Operating cash outflow of $25.7 million for the half-year, with about $18 million raised through at-the-market share sales First-half fiscal 2026 operating review, Form 6-K exhibit 99.3 · as of
- Chief executive Andrew Leaver sold 2,573 shares at $16.40 on the open market SEC Form 4, filed 15 October 2026 · as of
- Closed at $14.86, below the 50-day average of $18.82 and the 200-day average of $17.74; down 39.0% over three months Adjusted daily closes · as of
Sources
- Arqit Quantum Inc. Announces Select Preliminary Financial Results for the Second Half and Full Fiscal Year 2026 · globenewswire.com ·
- Arqit Announces Preliminary Fiscal 2026 Financial Results · thequantuminsider.com ·
- Arqit Quantum H1 earnings call highlights · nasdaq.com
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