CXW · CoreCivic
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $35.54
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
12.0% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $35.54, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 6.9% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $35.54, just under the 18 September 2026 intraday high of $36.55, would show the shares leading the S&P 500. So would ICE extending the California City and Midwest operating contracts beyond their August 2027 expiry.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Real Estate
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 5 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 744
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +28.2
- Operating margin (%)
- 9.0
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- −395
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- −82.4
- Price to earnings (×)
- 1.9
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 1.1
- Enterprise value to operating income (×)
- 10.7
All filed numbers
What CoreCivic reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 744 | +28.2 | 9.0 |
| first filed | 685 | +27.3 | 10.1 |
| first filed | 615 | +25.8 | 11.4 |
| first filed | 604 | +26.0 | 9.2 |
| first filed | 580 | +18.1 | 8.7 |
| first filed | 538 | +9.8 | 12.0 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 1,849 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 1,446 | 1,344 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | −14.0 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | −267 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 128 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | −395 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 547 |
| Debt ($M) | 630 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | −82.4 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) −40.9% on a year | 6.0 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 535 |
| Inventory ($M) | Not reported |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 2,278 |
| Market value ($M) | 2,705 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 2,787 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 1.1 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | 10.7 |
| Price to earnings (×) | 1.9 |
| Price to book value (×) | 1.2 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | −14.6 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 15.1% of shares outstanding sold short, 6.3 days of average trading to cover, −6.0% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $5.8M |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $18.0M |
The thesis
CoreCivic's case is a federal customer that bought four of its detention facilities for $2.2 billion and left the company to run them. The third-quarter report of 4 November 2026 beat expectations and raised recurring guidance, but the rating is Low because two of the operating contracts expire in August 2027 and federal detention funding is set each year. What settles it is whether ICE (US Immigration and Customs Enforcement) renews the contracts at the sold sites, starting with California City and Midwest, and whether a further sale follows.
The release reported revenue of $744.1 million, up 28.2% from a year earlier. Net income was $1,344.1 million, including a $1,770.7 million net gain on the facility sales. Adjusted diluted earnings per share, which exclude that gain, were $0.49 (CoreCivic 8-K exhibit 99.1, 4 November 2026).
The shares closed at $28.23 on 5 November 2026, the session after the report, and at $32.55 on 11 November 2026. That is above the 4 November 2026 close of $30.52 and above both the 50-day average of $32.21 and the 200-day average of $26.17. The market has priced in the guidance raise and the larger buyback; the August 2027 contract expiries are still unresolved.
Bullish and bearish views on CoreCivic, Inc.
The bull case on CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW), in brief: guidance rose again. The bear case: two contracts expire in about nine months.
Bull case
- Guidance rose again. On 4 November 2026 the company lifted 2026 adjusted diluted EPS guidance to $1.74–$1.80 from $1.64–$1.73. Adjusted EBITDA guidance rose to $442.5–$445.5 million from $434.5–$439.5 million.
- Cash earnings beat. Funds from operations (FFO), a cash-earnings measure for property owners, were $0.84 per share against a $0.65 estimate. Revenue beat a $697.5 million estimate (news reports, 4 November 2026).
- Occupancy is climbing. Occupancy was 84.0% in the third quarter of 2026, against 78.4% in the second quarter and 76.7% a year earlier (8-K, 4 November 2026).
- A new ICE contract adds revenue. The Appleton facility's five-year ICE contract began 11 August 2026. It is expected to bring about $75 million of annual revenue once fully activated in the second quarter of 2027.
- Buyback capacity grew. The board added $500 million on 4 November 2026, taking total authorization to $1.7 billion with $755.8 million available. The $500 million accelerated repurchase delivered 12.4 million shares initially.
- More sales are under discussion. The release says further facility sales to ICE are in preliminary discussions. Guidance excludes any such sale.
Bear case
- Two contracts expire in about nine months. California City and Midwest run to August 2027, Otay Mesa to December 2029 and Appleton to August 2031. ICE can end its contracts for non-appropriation or convenience (8-K, 4 November 2026).
- Headline earnings guidance fell. GAAP diluted EPS guidance for 2026 is $15.42–$15.48, down from $15.62–$15.82. Net income guidance is $1.461–$1.467 billion, down from $1.492–$1.511 billion.
- Political risk rose. A 4 November 2026 news headline reported that GEO Group and CoreCivic fell after Democratic gains in the midterm elections.
- Federal concentration is high. ICE made up about 53% of residential-segment revenue in the second quarter of 2026 (second-quarter release, 5 August 2026).
- Detainee-death scrutiny continues. The San Francisco Chronicle reported on 6 November 2026 on ICE findings about dozens of detainee deaths. That adds legal and reputational pressure on private operators.
- Insiders sold into the September highs. Form 4 filings show Chief Corrections and Reentry Officer Daren Swenson sold 20,000 shares at $34.85 on 11 September 2026, and director Mark Emkes sold 30,000 shares at $34.25 on 24 August 2026. On 10 November 2026 Chief Development Officer Anthony Grande disposed of 25,000 shares to the company at $31.49.
Price setup
The last close was $32.55 on 11 November 2026. That is 10.9% below the 52-week intraday high of $36.55 set on 18 September 2026, and the three-month change is 3.0% (adjusted daily closes). The 52-week closing low is $16.13, set on 18 November 2025.
The shares fell from $30.52 on 4 November 2026 to $28.23 on 5 November 2026, then rose on each of the next four sessions: $28.67, $29.83, $31.59 and $32.55. The 50-day average of $32.21 sits just under the last close. The 200-day average of $26.17 is the next reference point below it.
The case turns on the September high zone. A close above it would show the market treating the post-sale contracts as secure.
Catalysts ahead
- 31 December 2026 (est.): First ICE detainees expected at the Appleton facility (fourth quarter of 2026). Starts the roughly $75 million of annual revenue expected at full activation in the second quarter of 2027.
- ~February 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 report. Tests the $1.74–$1.80 adjusted EPS guidance and occupancy against the 84.0% third-quarter level.
- ~30 June 2027 (est.): Final settlement of the $500 million accelerated share repurchase, due before the end of the second quarter of 2027. Sets the final share count delivered after the 12.4 million shares received initially.
- ~August 2027 (est.): California City and Midwest operating contracts reach their August 2027 expiry. Renewal or non-renewal decides whether operating income at the sold sites continues.
What would change the view
A daily close above $35.54, just under the 18 September 2026 intraday high of $36.55, would show the shares leading the S&P 500. So would ICE extending the California City and Midwest operating contracts beyond their August 2027 expiry.
What it trades with
GEO Group, the other large US private detention operator, fell alongside CoreCivic on 4 November 2026 (news headline), so federal immigration and detention policy drives both. The shares respond to ICE funding decisions and the political calendar rather than to technology or consumer spending. The company has a government counterparty on both the property it sold and the contracts it kept.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Q3 2026 revenue was $744.1M, up 28.2% year over year; adjusted diluted EPS $0.49; FFO $0.84 per diluted share; occupancy 84.0% versus 76.7% a year earlier. CoreCivic 8-K exhibit 99.1, Q3 2026 results · as of
- Q3 2026 net income was $1,344.1M, including a $1,770.7M net gain on sale of real estate from four facilities sold to DHS for $2.2B gross proceeds. CoreCivic 8-K exhibit 99.1, Q3 2026 results · as of
- 2026 adjusted diluted EPS guidance raised to $1.74–$1.80 from $1.64–$1.73; adjusted EBITDA guidance $442.5M–$445.5M; GAAP diluted EPS guidance $15.42–$15.48. CoreCivic 8-K exhibit 99.1, Q3 2026 results · as of
- Buyback authorization raised by $500M to $1.7B in total, with $755.8M available; the $500M accelerated repurchase delivered 12.4M shares initially. CoreCivic 8-K exhibit 99.1, Q3 2026 results · as of
- Management contracts at sold facilities expire: California City and Midwest August 2027, Otay Mesa December 2029, Appleton August 2031; ICE can terminate for non-appropriation or convenience. CoreCivic 8-K exhibit 99.1, Q3 2026 results · as of
- Appleton five-year ICE contract began 11 August 2026 and is expected to produce about $75M of annual revenue once fully activated in Q2 2027. CoreCivic 8-K exhibit 99.1, Q3 2026 results · as of
- Chief Development Officer Anthony Grande disposed of 25,000 shares to the company at $31.49 on 10 November 2026. SEC Form 4, filed 10 November 2026 · as of
- Close of $32.55 was 10.9% below the 52-week intraday high of $36.55 (18 September 2026); the three-month price change was 3.0%. Adjusted daily closes · as of
Sources
- CoreCivic, Inc. - Form 8-K - FY2026 · sec.gov