LPG · Dorian Lpg

The thesis

Dorian LPG shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. The company is earning record freight rates because the Strait of Hormuz is largely shut, and a US-Iran agreement is the main threat to those rates. The December-quarter forward booking release, which management has promised but not dated, and any signed US-Iran agreement settle the case.

The rates are still high. The Baltic Exchange put its Houston–Chiba route (BLPG3) at a time charter equivalent (TCE, a ship's daily earnings after voyage costs) of $196,055 a day in the week to 6 November 2026, up $10,491 on the week. Dorian's own September-quarter TCE was $96,990 per available day, the highest in its history (5 November 2026 earnings call).

The talks are stuck, and the strait is still dangerous. On 12 November 2026 Al Jazeera reported that Iran's chief negotiator, parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, set seven conditions for a reopening, including an end to the US blockade of Iranian ports. Secretary of State Marco Rubio called the demands "unacceptable". The New Arab reported on 11 November 2026 that at least 10 ships were hit in the first 10 days of November, after 37 attacks in October, citing Washington Institute data.

The shares closed at $48.17 on 13 November 2026, 19.7% under the 52-week intraday high of $59.97 set on 17 September 2026, even though BLPG3 kept rising into November. At 4.3 times earnings, the market is pricing the record rates as temporary. The rating is Low because a reopening would cut rates faster than a booking release could support them. The view fails if December-quarter forward bookings come in above the $96,990 September-quarter TCE.

Bullish and bearish views on Dorian Lpg Ltd

The bull case on Dorian Lpg Ltd (LPG), in brief: third straight record quarter. The bear case: Washington signals a path to a deal.

Bull case

• Third straight record quarter. TCE of $96,990 per available day compares with $75,926 in the June quarter and $53,725 a year earlier. Revenue rose 78.4% to $221.3 million (5 November 2026 earnings call).
• A wide estimate beat. Adjusted earnings were $3.46 per share against a $2.63 estimate, and sales of $221.3 million beat a $187.9 million estimate (Benzinga, 5 November 2026).
• Spot rates are still climbing. BLPG3 reached $196,055 a day in the week to 6 November 2026 (Baltic Exchange weekly report). The company had fixed 99% of September-quarter days at more than $88,000 a day (company release, 4 September 2026).
• Washington rejected Iran's terms. Rubio called Iran's seven conditions "unacceptable", and Ghalibaf said the strait would "never return" to its pre-war status (Al Jazeera, 12 November 2026).
• Shipping attacks continue. At least 10 ships were hit in the first 10 days of November after 37 attacks in October, the highest monthly count of the conflict, per Washington Institute data (The New Arab, 11 November 2026). President Trump confirmed on 9 November 2026 that the naval blockade of Iranian ports continues.
• Strait traffic remains thin. Five commodity vessels crossed on 7 November 2026 and none on 8 November 2026, against 31 the weekend before, according to Reuters citing Kpler (Al Jazeera, 12 November 2026).
• Cash is building. The 10-Q filed 5 November 2026 shows $579 million of cash and short-term investments against $477 million of long-term debt at 30 September 2026. Management said on 5 November 2026 that cash stood at almost $785 million after October ship sales of about $167.4 million net, with gains "in excess of $88 million" due in the December quarter.

Bear case

• Washington signals a path to a deal. Trump said further strikes on Iran would not be necessary after the 9 November 2026 Qatar meeting, and Eurasia Group cut its estimate of renewed all-out hostilities to 30% from 60% (Bloomberg via Rigzone, 10 November 2026).
• A reopening offer is on the table. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the strait would reopen on day two once the US meets Iran's terms, including lifting the blockade and sanctions (Al Jazeera, 9 November 2026).
• Insiders sold near the high. SEC Form 4 filings show seven open-market sales by directors and officers between 8 September 2026 and 21 September 2026 at $53.12–$58.65 a share. Chief Commercial Officer Tim Hansen sold 50,000 shares on 9 September 2026, and director Christina Tan sold 10,000 at $58.65 on 17 September 2026, the day of the 52-week high.
• Oil is pricing less risk. Brent fell 1.6% to $91.10 in early trading on 10 November 2026, after its lowest close since August (Bloomberg via Rigzone).
• Gulf energy is partly moving. Iran said ships from India, China, Iraq and Qatar pass freely, and Kpler put October Gulf crude through Hormuz at 10.23 million barrels a day (Al Jazeera, 6 November 2026). Dorian's chartering head put Middle East exports at about half of pre-conflict levels (5 November 2026 earnings call).
• No December-quarter bookings yet. Management gave no forward booking figures on 5 November 2026 and said only that they would follow "in the near future".
• Reported profit overstates freight income. Net income of $213.9 million for the September quarter included $63.6 million of vessel-sale gains (5 November 2026 earnings call), which lifts the filed 97.3% operating margin for that quarter.

Price setup

The shares closed at $48.17 on 13 November 2026, a fourth straight gain from a $45.98 close on 9 November 2026. The 52-week intraday high is $59.97, set on 17 September 2026, and the 52-week closing low is $23.93, set on 30 December 2025. The shares are up 2.2% over three months.

As of 13 November 2026 the 50-day moving average stands at $52.43 and the 200-day moving average at $41.10. The price sits between the two. Trading under the 50-day average keeps the decline from the September high in force; holding above the 200-day average keeps most of the gain from the December 2025 low. A move back above the 50-day average would show the market pricing a longer closure.

The September peak coincided with the insider sales listed under Bear Case, and the 5 November 2026 record quarter did not lift the shares back toward it. The November recovery has come as the US-Iran talks stalled. The standard deviation of three-month returns across US stocks trading at least $5 million a day was 27% in 2026, so a move of this size is ordinary.

Catalysts ahead

• 20 November 2026: Baltic Exchange weekly LPG route assessments, BLPG1 to BLPG3 (published each Friday). Shows whether BLPG3 holds near the $196,055 a day of the week to 6 November 2026 while US-Iran talks stay stalled; these rates feed December-quarter and later earnings.
• ~30 November 2026 (est.): December-quarter forward booking disclosure; management promised it 'in the near future' and set no date. The first direct measure of earnings after the record quarter, against the $96,990 September-quarter TCE and the $88,000 a day September-quarter fixtures.
• ~4 February 2027 (est.): Fiscal 2027 third-quarter report for the quarter ending 31 December 2026. Shows whether TCE exceeds $96,990 and books the vessel-sale gains of more than $88 million that management expects.

What would change the view

A daily close above $56.74, the highest dividend-adjusted close of the past three months (17 September 2026), which would show the shares leading the S&P 500; December-quarter forward bookings above the $96,990 September-quarter TCE would also show the call wrong.

What it trades with

Dorian is the largest US-listed owner of very large gas carriers (VLGCs), and its shares move with Hormuz headlines. They tend to move with the oil risk premium: Brent's fall to $91.10 on 10 November 2026 and the shares' slide in the week of the 5 November 2026 report both followed de-escalation news. Peer VLGC owner BW LPG carries the same rate and strait exposure. US propane export volumes and Panama Canal congestion are secondary drivers, because both set how many ship-days the US-to-Asia route absorbs; management said on 5 November 2026 that canal auctions averaged about $2 million in August.