QBTS · D-Wave Quantum
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $14.22
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
32.8% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $14.22, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 54.2% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $14.22, over the 50-day average of closes, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500; or a new system sale of $20 million or more announced before the fourth-quarter 2026 report.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Catalyst
Key figures from the filings · Technology
Quarter to 30 June 2026, filed 6 August 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 3.1
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- −0.6
- Gross margin (%)
- 55.4
- Operating margin (%)
- −1732.1
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- −119
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- 511
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 243.0
- Free-cash-flow yield (%)
- −3.4
All filed numbers
What D-Wave Quantum reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 3.1 | −0.6 | 55.4 | −1732.1 |
| first filed | 2.9 | −80.9 | 63.6 | −1914.9 |
| first filed | 2.8 | +19.2 | 64.8 | −1266.0 |
| first filed | 3.7 | +99.9 | 71.4 | −741.8 |
| first filed | 3.1 | +41.8 | 63.8 | −856.3 |
| first filed | 15.0 | +508.6 | 92.5 | −75.3 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | −48.0 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: −249 | −48.0 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 June 2025 | +22.7 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | −111 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 8.2 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | −119 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 546 |
| Debt ($M) non-current long-term debt | 34.9 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | 511 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) +89.9% on a year | 10.6 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) +667.9% on a year | 40.7 |
| Receivables ($M) | 2.0 |
| Inventory ($M) | 3.5 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 1,083 |
| Market value ($M) | 3,530 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 3,019 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 243.0 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to book value (×) | 3.3 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | −3.4 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 21.4% of shares outstanding sold short, 5.0 days of average trading to cover, +11.6% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $20K |
| 12 monthsfrom | $2K | $77.1M |
The thesis
D-Wave Quantum's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. New orders fell in the third quarter, and management gave no fourth-quarter revenue figure. Five brokers cut their targets on 11 November 2026. The case turns on whether the $20 million Florida Atlantic University (FAU) annealing system is delivered by 31 December 2026. The fourth-quarter report, expected around 26 February 2027, shows how much of it landed as revenue.
The 10 November 2026 results release reported third-quarter revenue of $4.513 million, up 21% from a year earlier and above the $4.333 million estimate Benzinga cited. The net loss was $48.2 million, or $0.13 per share, against a $0.10 estimate. Bookings, meaning new orders signed, fell 19% from a year earlier to $1.9 million.
The shares closed at $9.84 on 12 November 2026, below every target set after the report. StoneX's $20 target is the lowest of them. At that price the market is pricing in doubt that the FAU delivery and the larger sales pipeline turn into revenue on schedule.
Bullish and bearish views on D-Wave Quantum Inc.
The bull case on D-Wave Quantum Inc. (QBTS), in brief: one large system is due this quarter. The bear case: new orders slowed sharply.
Bull case
- One large system is due this quarter. On the 10 November 2026 call, acting Chief Financial Officer Greg Golkov said the $20 million FAU system is expected to be delivered in the fourth quarter of 2026. A substantial portion would be recognised on delivery and the rest over installation, likely in early 2027.
- A second system has shipped. The third-quarter release says D-Wave delivered a 4,400-plus-qubit Advantage2 system to Villa Saporiti in Como, Italy, in October 2026. Swiss Quantum Technology SA funds it.
- Nine-month orders are far above last year. Bookings for the first nine months of 2026 were $37.4 million, up 611% from a year earlier (release, 10 November 2026).
- Contracted backlog is large next to revenue. Remaining performance obligations, meaning contracted revenue not yet recognised, were $38.3 million at 30 September 2026. About 59% is expected within twelve months (release, 10 November 2026).
- The sales pipeline is growing. Golkov said on 10 November 2026 that the pipeline's dollar value rose more than 75% from the end of the second quarter. Rosenblatt's John McPeake wrote on 11 November 2026 that bookings and pipeline growth matter more than the timing of third-quarter revenue.
- Cash covers years of losses. Cash and marketable securities were $503.4 million at 30 September 2026, against a third-quarter adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation) loss of $37.7 million (release, 10 November 2026).
- Industry analysts rank the company highly. D-Wave said on 12 November 2026 that Gartner named it a Market Shaper in its November 2026 Emerging Market Quadrant for Quantum Computing, Established Vendors. It is one of six vendors in the upper-right quadrant.
Bear case
- New orders slowed sharply. Third-quarter bookings were $1.9 million, down 19% from a year earlier (release, 10 November 2026). Nearly all of the $37.4 million nine-month total came in the first half.
- No fourth-quarter figure anchors estimates. Management said in August that the fourth quarter would bring most of 2026 revenue. The 10 November 2026 release and call gave no number for it.
- Part of the FAU revenue moves into 2027. Golkov said more revenue would be recognised over installation, likely in early 2027. A delivery after 31 December 2026 pushes the bulk out of the fourth quarter.
- Losses are widening. The third-quarter adjusted EBITDA loss of $37.7 million was about 83% larger than a year earlier. Gross margin under generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) fell to 52.9% as lower-margin professional services grew as a share of revenue (release, 10 November 2026).
- Cash is falling. Cash and marketable securities dropped to $503.4 million at 30 September 2026 from $546.2 million at 30 June 2026 (second- and third-quarter releases).
- Federal money has not arrived. D-Wave signed for up to $100 million of CHIPS and Science Act funding, paid in milestone instalments. Golkov said none had been received by 30 September 2026.
- Brokers cut targets after the report. On 11 November 2026, Benzinga reported cuts by Canaccord Genuity to $31, Rosenblatt to $30, Evercore ISI to $27, Stifel to $23 and StoneX to $20, all keeping positive ratings.
Price setup
The shares closed at $9.84 on 12 November 2026, 69.6% below the 52-week intraday high of $32.39 set on 22 December 2025. Adjusted daily closes put them down 53.5% over three months, from $21.17 on 14 August 2026.
The 52-week closing low is $9.05, set on 5 November 2026. The shares rallied to $11.47 by 9 November 2026, ahead of the report. They then closed at $10.48 on 10 November 2026, $10.65 on 11 November 2026 and $9.84 on 12 November 2026. The 5 November 2026 low is the nearest reference below the price.
The 50-day average of adjusted closes was $14.09 and the 200-day average $18.57 on 12 November 2026. The price sits below both, and the 50-day average sits below the 200-day. Short sellers held about 21.6% of the float in early November, S&P Global Market Intelligence data cited by the Motley Fool on 4 November 2026 showed. Short interest that large can magnify moves in either direction around news.
SEC Form 4 filings from 16 September to 30 October 2026 show only stock awards and shares withheld for taxes. Chief Executive Alan Baratz had 52,320 shares withheld at $12.03 on 15 October 2026. None of these filings shows an open-market purchase or sale.
Catalysts ahead
- 15 December 2026: Lead-plaintiff deadline in the securities class action Fessler v. D-Wave Quantum Inc. A procedural step that shows how the litigation over 26 February to 25 August 2026 disclosures proceeds; it does not decide the claims.
- 31 December 2026: End of the fourth quarter of 2026, when management expects to deliver the $20 million Florida Atlantic University system. On-time delivery puts a substantial portion of the sale into fourth-quarter revenue; a slip moves the bulk of it into 2027.
- ~26 February 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 results release. Shows how much system revenue landed in the fourth quarter and whether bookings recovered from the third quarter's $1.9 million.
What would change the view
A daily close above $14.22, over the 50-day average of closes, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500; or a new system sale of $20 million or more announced before the fourth-quarter 2026 report.
What it trades with
D-Wave trades with the other listed quantum names, IonQ and Rigetti. Benzinga reported the shares rose about 14% on 6 November 2026 in a sector rally driven by IonQ's raised 2026 outlook, with no D-Wave news. On 12 November 2026, company news described quantum stocks sliding as Rigetti's and D-Wave's results disappointed and Nvidia's swings weighed on the group. In October 2026 the shares fell 35.7% while the S&P 500 slipped 0.9%, the Motley Fool reported on 4 November 2026.
So peer results and chip-sector sentiment can outweigh D-Wave's own news for weeks at a time. D-Wave also relies on SkyWater Technology, which rival IonQ owns, to manufacture its chips under an agreement signed 13 October 2026.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Third-quarter 2026 revenue was $4.513 million, up 21% from a year earlier, against a $4.333 million estimate; net loss was $48.2 million, or $0.13 per share, against a $0.10 estimate. D-Wave third-quarter 2026 results release (8-K Exhibit 99.1), 10 November 2026 · as of
- Third-quarter 2026 bookings were $1.9 million, down 19% from a year earlier; bookings for the first nine months of 2026 were $37.4 million, up 611%. D-Wave third-quarter 2026 results release, 10 November 2026 · as of
- Remaining performance obligations were $38.3 million at 30 September 2026, with about 59% expected to be recognised within twelve months. D-Wave third-quarter 2026 results release, 10 November 2026 · as of
- Cash and marketable securities were $503.4 million at 30 September 2026; third-quarter adjusted EBITDA loss was $37.7 million; GAAP gross margin was 52.9%. D-Wave third-quarter 2026 results release, 10 November 2026 · as of
- Acting CFO Greg Golkov said the $20 million Florida Atlantic University system is expected to be delivered in the fourth quarter of 2026, with more revenue recognised over installation, likely in early 2027. D-Wave third-quarter 2026 earnings call, 10 November 2026 · as of
- Golkov said the sales pipeline's dollar value rose more than 75% from the end of the second quarter and that no CHIPS Act funds had been received by 30 September 2026. D-Wave third-quarter 2026 earnings call, 10 November 2026 · as of
- Canaccord Genuity cut its target to $31, Rosenblatt to $30, Evercore ISI to $27, Stifel to $23 and StoneX to $20, each keeping a positive rating. Benzinga analyst-rating reports, 11 November 2026 · as of
- D-Wave was named a Market Shaper in Gartner's November 2026 Emerging Market Quadrant for Quantum Computing, Established Vendors, one of six vendors in the upper-right quadrant. D-Wave announcement reported by TipRanks, 12 November 2026 · as of
Sources
- D-Wave Quantum Inc. - Form 8-K - FY2026 · sec.gov ·
- D-Wave Quantum Q3 Earnings Call Highlights · finance.yahoo.com ·
- D-Wave (QBTS) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript · fool.com ·
- D-Wave Named Quantum Computing Market Shaper by Gartner · tipranks.com ·
- Why D-Wave Quantum Stock Led a Quantum Computing Crash in October · fool.com ·
- Rigetti Soars 17%, D-Wave Up 17% as IonQ Raises Guidance to “An Industry Record” · tikr.com ·
- D-Wave Reports Bookings Surge as Quarterly Revenue Holds Steady · thequantuminsider.com ·
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