RGTI · Rigetti Computing
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $13.76
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
30.1% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $13.76, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 48.5% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $13.76, over the 50-day average of closes and the $12.98 post-IonQ high of 9 November 2026, would show the shares leading the S&P 500 and prove this call wrong; so would a new system order larger than the $8.4 million C-DAC contract.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Technology
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 10 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 1.4
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- −27.5
- Gross margin (%)
- 60.7
- Operating margin (%)
- −2351.9
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- −111
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- 45.8
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 253.7
- Free-cash-flow yield (%)
- −3.4
All filed numbers
What Rigetti Computing reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 1.4 | −27.5 | 60.7 | −2351.9 |
| first filed | 5.1 | +185.3 | 42.6 | −546.2 |
| first filed | 4.4 | +198.9 | 31.3 | −589.8 |
| first filed | 1.9 | −17.9 | 34.9 | −1209.7 |
| first filed | 1.9 | −18.1 | 20.7 | −1055.4 |
| first filed | 1.8 | −41.6 | 31.4 | −1103.9 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | −3.1 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: −40.8 | −3.1 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +4.3 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | −64.0 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 47.2 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | −111 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 45.8 |
| Debt ($M) | None reported |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) no debt reported | 45.8 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) +463.0% on a year | 3.9 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) −47.3% on a year | 2.9 |
| Receivables ($M) | 3.9 |
| Inventory ($M) | Not reported |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 542 |
| Market value ($M) | 3,298 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) no debt reported | 3,252 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) no debt reported | 253.7 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to book value (×) | 6.1 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | −3.4 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 20.7% of shares outstanding sold short, 4.5 days of average trading to cover, +8.2% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $2.6M |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $30.1M |
The thesis
Rigetti Computing's shares look more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. Third-quarter 2026 revenue fell to $1.41 million against a $3.52 million consensus, and the full-year outlook now rests on a single customer acceptance. That event is India's Centre for Development of Advanced Computing (C-DAC) accepting its 108-qubit system by 31 December 2026, and it settles whether the outlook holds.
The 10 November 2026 report showed revenue of $1.411 million, down from $1.947 million a year earlier, and an adjusted loss of $0.06 a share against a $0.05 estimate (company results via Benzinga, 10 November 2026). Management guided 2026 revenue to about $20 million, below the $22.9 million consensus, "assuming C-DAC customer acceptance and revenue recognition" in the fourth quarter. On the call, management described the C-DAC system as still being brought up in India and gave no acceptance date (earnings call transcript, Investing.com, 10 November 2026).
Analysts cut targets the next day. Needham lowered its target to $15 from $31 and StoneX to $20 from $25, both keeping Buy ratings, and Jefferies kept a Hold with a $12 target (Benzinga, 11 November 2026). The shares closed lower in each of the three sessions after the report, from $12.98 on 9 November 2026 to $10.33 on 12 November 2026.
The market already prices a weak 2026: the 12 November 2026 close of $10.33 sits below Jefferies' $12 target and 45.1% below where the shares stood three months earlier. The rating is low because the next dated test is a single acceptance with no announced date, spending stays elevated into 2027, and the shares have moved with the quantum group rather than with Rigetti's own results.
Bullish and bearish views on Rigetti Computing, Inc.
The bull case on Rigetti Computing, Inc. (RGTI), in brief: cash still covers years of spending. The bear case: revenue missed by a wide margin.
Bull case
- Cash still covers years of spending. Rigetti held $497.1 million of cash, equivalents and available-for-sale investments with no debt at 30 September 2026 (third-quarter results, 10 November 2026).
- One acceptance lifts full-year revenue. The $8.4 million C-DAC order was announced 20 January 2026, and management's roughly $20 million 2026 outlook assumes it is recognized in the fourth quarter (10 November 2026 results).
- Analysts blame timing, not demand. Needham's Quinn Bolton attributed the weak quarter to the timing of system deliveries while cutting his target to $15 (Benzinga, 11 November 2026).
- The 108-qubit system reached its fidelity target. Rigetti reported 99.5% median two-qubit gate fidelity on its Cepheus-1-108Q system, built from 12 linked 9-qubit chiplets (third-quarter presentation, Investing.com, 10 November 2026).
- Margins and nine-month revenue improved. Third-quarter gross margin was 61% against 21% a year earlier, and nine-month revenue was $10.9 million, up 110% from $5.2 million (Investing.com, 10 November 2026).
- Federal funding is available but not yet drawn. The up-to-$100 million Commerce Department agreement signed in September 2026 pays as costs are incurred; none had been drawn as of September (10 November 2026 call).
Bear case
- Revenue missed by a wide margin. Third-quarter revenue of $1.411 million compares with $5.14 million in the second quarter and the $3.519 million estimate (Benzinga, 10 November 2026).
- Guidance sits below consensus and on one event. The approximately $20 million 2026 outlook compares with $22.9 million expected by analysts and assumes C-DAC acceptance in the fourth quarter (10 November 2026 results).
- Losses and spending are widening. The third-quarter operating loss was $33.2 million against $20.5 million a year earlier, with research and development spending of $25.5 million and stock-based compensation of about $8 million (10 November 2026 call).
- Capital spending stays high into 2027. Nine-month 2026 capital spending was $42.6 million, and the chief financial officer said 2027 capital spending would be "relatively consistent" with 2026 to support the 1,000-qubit plan (10 November 2026 call; Benzinga, 11 November 2026).
- Cash is falling steadily. Cash and investments fell to $497.1 million at 30 September 2026 from $541.3 million at 30 June 2026 and $589.8 million at 31 December 2025 (third-quarter results).
- Targets keep coming down. Jefferies' $12 target with a Hold rating, set on 11 November 2026, sits within reach of the current price, and Needham's cut to $15 from $31 halved its target (Benzinga, 11 November 2026).
- Executives sold at higher prices. Chief executive Subodh Kulkarni sold 120,000 shares at $15.68 on 9 September 2026 and the chief financial officer sold 25,000 shares at $15.00 on 3 September 2026, both after option exercises under Rule 10b5-1 plans (SEC Form 4 filings).
Price setup
The shares closed at $10.33 on 12 November 2026, 67.4% below the 52-week intraday high of $31.65 set on 12 November 2025 and just above the 52-week closing low of $9.85 from 5 November 2026. The three-month change is a fall of 45.1%, from a reference close of $18.82 on 14 August 2026.
The 50-day moving average of adjusted closes stood at $13.67 and the 200-day at $16.61 as of 12 November 2026, and the shares trade below both. The rally from $9.85 on 5 November 2026 to $12.98 on 9 November 2026 followed IonQ's results across the quantum group. The three closes after Rigetti's report, $12.15, $11.11 and $10.33, erased most of it.
The $9.85 closing low of 5 November 2026 is the nearest level below. A close under it would put the shares at a new 52-week closing low. On the upside, the 9 November 2026 close of $12.98 and the 50-day average mark the range the shares failed to hold after the report.
Catalysts ahead
- ~31 December 2026 (est.): End of the fourth-quarter window for C-DAC acceptance of the 108-qubit system. Acceptance is the stated condition for the roughly $20 million 2026 revenue outlook; a slip into 2027 leaves 2026 revenue well short of guidance.
- ~5 March 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 report. Shows whether C-DAC revenue was recognized, how far cash fell, and the 2027 spending and revenue outlook.
What would change the view
A daily close above $13.76, over the 50-day average of closes and the $12.98 post-IonQ high of 9 November 2026, would show the shares leading the S&P 500 and prove this call wrong; so would a new system order larger than the $8.4 million C-DAC contract.
What it trades with
Rigetti trades closely with IonQ, D-Wave Quantum and Quantum Computing Inc. On 6 November 2026, D-Wave rose about 14% after IonQ beat third-quarter revenue estimates, and Rigetti rose with it (Benzinga, 6 November 2026). On 12 November 2026 the group fell together, with company news headlines tying the slide to disappointing Rigetti and D-Wave results and turmoil in Nvidia shares that overshadowed IonQ's raised outlook. Leveraged single-stock exchange-traded funds on the quantum names add to swings in both directions, and group moves and moves in large chip stocks can outweigh Rigetti's own news over short periods.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Third-quarter 2026 revenue was $1.411 million against a $3.519 million estimate, down from $1.947 million a year earlier; the adjusted loss was $0.06 a share against a $0.05 estimate. Rigetti third-quarter 2026 results, via Benzinga · as of
- Rigetti guided 2026 revenue to about $20 million against a $22.9 million consensus, assuming C-DAC customer acceptance and revenue recognition in the fourth quarter. Rigetti third-quarter 2026 results and earnings call · as of
- Needham cut its target to $15 from $31 and StoneX to $20 from $25, both keeping Buy ratings; Jefferies kept a Hold rating with a $12 target. Benzinga, 11 November 2026 · as of
- Third-quarter operating loss was $33.2 million against $20.5 million a year earlier; research and development spending was $25.5 million. 10 November 2026 earnings call transcript, Investing.com · as of
- Cash, equivalents and available-for-sale investments were $497.1 million with no debt, down from $541.3 million at 30 June 2026 and $589.8 million at 31 December 2025. Rigetti third-quarter 2026 results · as of
- Nine-month 2026 capital spending was $42.6 million, and the chief financial officer expects 2027 capital spending to be relatively consistent with 2026. 10 November 2026 earnings call transcript, Investing.com · as of
- Rigetti reported 99.5% median two-qubit gate fidelity on its Cepheus-1-108Q system; third-quarter gross margin was 61% against 21% a year earlier. Third-quarter 2026 presentation, Investing.com · as of
- Chief executive Subodh Kulkarni exercised 150,000 options at $0.96 and sold 120,000 shares at $15.68 under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. SEC Form 4 filed 10 September 2026 · as of
Sources
- These Analysts Lower Their Forecasts On Rigetti Computing After Downbeat Q3 Results · benzinga.com
- Rigetti Computing Stock Sinks Nearly 7% After Hours as CFO Signals Another Year of Heavy Spending: CapEx · benzinga.com
- Rigetti Stock Slumps After Q3 Results Miss the Mark · benzinga.com
- Rigetti Q3 2026 presentation: milestone overshadowed by revenue miss · investing.com ·
- Earnings call transcript: Rigetti Computing misses Q3 2026 revenue forecast · in.investing.com
- Rigetti Computing Q3 Disappoints, But Analysts Praise 'Real Engineering Progress' · benzinga.com
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