ONON · On Holding

The thesis

On Holding's shares are rated modestly more likely than not to beat the S&P 500 over the next three months. The company kept its FY2026 sales guidance and plans for faster fourth-quarter (Q4) growth, and most covering firms held or raised targets after the report. US holiday trading from 27 November 2026 gives the first outside read, and the Q4 report, expected around March 2027, settles it.

The rating is Medium because the business met its guide while the shares fell. On reported on 10 November 2026 that third-quarter (Q3) net sales rose 17.2% to CHF 931.4 million (Swiss francs), or 17.8% in constant currency (growth with exchange-rate effects removed). Nine-month constant-currency growth was 21.8%. The shares closed at $37.53 on 9 November 2026, $34.70 on 10 November 2026 and $33.07 on 12 November 2026.

A one-off item flattered profit. A CHF 52.6 million US tariff refund lifted Q3 gross margin to 72.6%; without it, gross margin was 66.9%, against 65.7% a year earlier. The adjusted EBITDA margin (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) was 21.9% without the refund, below 22.6% a year earlier.

The Q4 report most likely falls just after the coming 63 trading sessions. Until then the shares trade on holiday-season demand and estimate revisions.

Bullish and bearish views on On Holding AG

The bull case on On Holding AG (ONON), in brief: sales met the guide against a hard comparison. The bear case: underlying profit margin slipped.

Bull case

• Sales met the guide against a hard comparison. Q3 constant-currency growth of 17.8% came against 34.5% growth in Q3 2025, according to the company's 12 November 2025 and 10 November 2026 releases.
• Results beat published estimates. Benzinga reported on 10 November 2026 that Q3 adjusted earnings per share of $0.66 beat the $0.46 estimate and sales of $1.147 billion beat the $1.140 billion estimate.
• Management guides to a faster Q4. On kept FY2026 growth in the low-20% range in constant currency, CHF 3.47–3.56 billion at spot rates, and said it plans for growth to accelerate in Q4 (Q3 release, 10 November 2026).
• Gross margin guidance went up. On now expects an FY2026 gross margin of about 67.5%, or about 66% excluding tariff refunds, against a prior floor of at least 65% (Q3 release, 10 November 2026).
• Several targets rose after the report. On 11 November 2026, JPMorgan raised its target to $46, Morgan Stanley to $43 and KeyBanc to $42, all at Overweight, and Cantor Fitzgerald reiterated Overweight with a $46 target (Benzinga, 11 November 2026).
• Own stores and website grew fastest. Direct-to-consumer sales rose 25.0% to CHF 393.3 million, 42.2% of net sales; apparel rose 38.7% to CHF 69.5 million (Q3 release, 10 November 2026).
• US wholesale sell-through improved. Investing.com's 10 November 2026 report on Goldman Sachs' note said US wholesale sell-out improved from Q2 and partner inventories are healthy.
• Cash keeps building. Cash and equivalents reached CHF 1,339.0 million on 30 September 2026, up from CHF 1,019.9 million at the end of 2025, and a $1 billion buyback is authorized through 31 December 2029.

Bear case

• Underlying profit margin slipped. Without the tariff refund, the Q3 adjusted EBITDA margin was 21.9% against 22.6% a year earlier. Selling, general and administrative expenses rose to CHF 481 million from CHF 397.5 million (Investing.com, 10 November 2026).
• Profit guidance did not rise without the refund. The FY2026 adjusted EBITDA margin guide stays at 19.5–20.0% excluding refunds; the 21.0–21.5% headline range includes them (Q3 release, 10 November 2026).
• Some targets fell. Goldman Sachs cut its target to $41 from $44 on 10 November 2026; Barclays lowered its target to $42 and UBS lowered its target to $65 on 11 November 2026, all keeping positive ratings (Investing.com; Benzinga).
• Direct sales and Asia-Pacific drew caution. Truist kept a Buy rating with a $40 target on 10 November 2026 while citing softer Asia-Pacific and direct-to-consumer trends (Investing.com, 10 November 2026).
• Growth was already reset once. Cantor Fitzgerald noted on 10 November 2026 that On had earlier cut FY2026 growth to the low-20% range by limiting US wholesale sell-in.
• Asia-Pacific carries brand risk. Chinese brands dropped Kylian Mbappé on 27 October 2026 after his "dictator" remark (Benzinga, 27 October 2026); Asia-Pacific grew 31.9% in Q3, the fastest region.

Price setup

The shares closed at $33.07 on 12 November 2026, down from $34.71 on 11 November 2026 and from $37.53 on 9 November 2026, the last close before the Q3 report. The 3-month change is 2.6%, measured from $32.22 on 14 August 2026.

The last close sits above the 50-day moving average of $32.06 and below the 200-day moving average of $36.19, both as of 12 November 2026. The 52-week intraday high is $51.08 from 9 January 2026, and the last close is 35.3% below it. The 52-week closing low is $26.76 from 15 September 2026.

The price reflects doubt about the Q4 acceleration: at $33.07 on 12 November 2026, the shares trade below every post-report target named above, the lowest being Truist's $40. A close back above the 200-day average would show the post-report selling reversing; the kill line sits below the 50-day average, at the 22 September 2026 investor-day close.

Catalysts ahead

• 27 November 2026: US Black Friday to Cyber Monday shopping period (through 30 November 2026). First outside read on the Q4 direct-to-consumer demand that the guided fourth-quarter acceleration depends on.
• ~March 2027 (est.): Q4 and FY2026 results. Shows whether Q4 constant-currency growth accelerated from Q3's 17.8%, whether low-20% FY2026 growth was delivered, and how much stock was repurchased.

What would change the view

A daily close below $30.52, the 22 September 2026 investor-day close, which would erase the gain since the 2029 targets and buyback were announced. A cut to FY2026 sales guidance, or Q4 constant-currency growth no faster than Q3's 17.8%, would also break the case.

The risks this note tracks, each with what would confirm it:

• The promised Q4 sales acceleration fails to arrive and FY2026 growth lands below the low-20% guide. Confirmed by: Q4 constant-currency growth at or below Q3's 17.8%, or a cut to FY2026 sales guidance at the Q4 report.
• Underlying profitability erodes as operating costs outpace sales. Confirmed by: FY2026 adjusted EBITDA margin excluding tariff refunds below 19.5%, after Q3's 21.9% fell short of 22.6% a year earlier.
• Analyst targets keep falling after the Q3 report, compressing the valuation. Confirmed by: more covering firms following the cuts by Goldman Sachs to $41 on 10 November 2026 and Barclays to $42 on 11 November 2026, or a rating downgrade from a covering firm.
• Asia-Pacific, the fastest-growing region, slows further, with the Mbappé backlash in China adding pressure. Confirmed by: Q4 Asia-Pacific constant-currency growth below Q3's 31.9%, or On ending or pausing the Mbappé ambassador deal.
• Discounting in athletic footwear spreads to On's wholesale accounts and premium pricing. Confirmed by: wholesale growth below Q3's 12.2%, more promotional activity disclosed, or further guidance cuts from peers after Deckers' 22 October 2026 trim.

What it trades with

On trades with premium athletic footwear and apparel peers; Deckers' guidance trim of 22 October 2026 and Nike's results move sentiment across the group. It reports in Swiss francs, so a stronger franc against the dollar lowers dollar-converted results. US tariff policy affects it directly, as the CHF 52.6 million Q3 refund shows. As a consumer discretionary growth name, it is also sensitive to US interest rates: the 10 November 2026 report session coincided with a hotter-than-expected October inflation print that pushed the 10-year Treasury yield to 5% (Benzinga, 10 November 2026).