NTRA · Natera
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $363.76
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
12.3% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $363.76, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are up 1.6% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $363.76, the 5 November 2026 close before the third-quarter report, which would show the shares recovering the post-report loss and leading the S&P 500. Preliminary 2026 revenue above the $3.035 billion top of the guide would also show the shares leading.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Catalyst
Key figures from the filings · Health Care
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 5 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 794
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +34.1
- Operating margin (%)
- −8.6
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 52.5
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- 1,017
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 15.6
- Free-cash-flow yield (%)
- 0.1
All filed numbers
What Natera reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 794 | +34.1 | −8.6 |
| first filed | 753 | +37.7 | −10.1 |
| first filed | 697 | +38.8 | −13.4 |
| first filed | 666 | +39.8 | −3.4 |
| first filed | 592 | +34.7 | −16.5 |
| first filed | 547 | +32.2 | −20.2 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | −59.6 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: −165 | −59.9 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +5.0 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 213 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 160 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 52.5 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 1,097 |
| Debt ($M) short-term borrowings | 80.3 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | 1,017 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) +37.0% on a year | 52.4 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 471 |
| Inventory ($M) | 91.7 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 1,870 |
| Market value ($M) | 46,270 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 45,253 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 15.6 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to book value (×) | 24.7 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 0.1 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 4.0% of shares outstanding sold short, 3.4 days of average trading to cover, −7.9% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $104.8M |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $365.6M |
The thesis
Natera's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. The business keeps growing fast, but the abrupt change of chief executive on 5 November 2026 has kept the shares down. The fourth-quarter report, estimated for late February 2027, is the next full test of Signatera growth under new CEO Solomon Moshkevich, and it lands at the far end of that three-month window.
The rating is Low because the shares have not recovered from the post-report drop. They closed at $310.67 on 6 November 2026, the first session after the report. Over the next three sessions they closed between $311.98 and $320.39. The close of $319.82 on 11 November 2026 sits below the 50-day moving average of $379.91.
The business numbers did not weaken. Natera's 5 November 2026 release put third-quarter revenue at $794.0 million, up 34.1% from $592.2 million, against Benzinga's $704.9 million estimate. The company raised 2026 revenue guidance to $3.005–$3.035 billion from $2.85–$2.91 billion. The loss of $0.42 per share was wider than Benzinga's $0.29 estimate. MedTech Dive reported on 6 November 2026 that TD Cowen's Dan Brennan said "the immediacy of the move further created some initial angst from investors."
The price shows the market has given back the October run-up while broker targets stay high. On 11 November 2026 the shares closed 26.9% below the 52-week intraday high of $437.41 set on 6 October 2026. After the report, JPMorgan's target was $405, Evercore ISI's $400 and Baird's $403.
Two company events followed the report, and neither changes the case. On 10 November 2026 Natera announced a clinical collaboration with Incyte. On 12 November 2026 it filed a resale prospectus for up to 68,023 shares issued to buy a private company it did not name.
Bullish and bearish views on Natera, Inc.
The bull case on Natera, Inc. (NTRA), in brief: Signatera unit growth is speeding up. The bear case: the CEO left on results day.
Bull case
- Signatera unit growth is speeding up. Management said on the 5 November 2026 call that clinical molecular residual disease (MRD) tests reached about 316,000 in Q3, up 56% from 202,000. The gain of about 33,000 over Q2 was the second quarter in a row above 30,000.
- Price per test is rising. On the same call, management put Signatera's average selling price at about $1,290 in Q3, up from $1,271 in Q2.
- Drug developers design trials around Signatera. Natera said on 10 November 2026 that Incyte's Phase II trial of INCA33890 in stage 2 and 3 colorectal cancer will enrol patients who test MRD-positive on Signatera after surgery and chemotherapy. Signatera is both a primary and a secondary endpoint.
- Brokers kept positive ratings after the drop. JPMorgan kept Overweight with a $405 target and Evercore ISI kept Outperform with a $400 target on 6 November 2026, per Benzinga. Baird kept Outperform with a $403 target on 9 November 2026, per Benzinga. Piper Sandler reiterated Overweight and a $363.50 target on 6 November 2026, per Investing.com.
- The new CEO is a long-time insider. MedTech Dive reported on 6 November 2026 that Moshkevich spent 15 years at Natera and ran clinical diagnostics. BNP Paribas's Navann Ty said the promotion "should provide some continuity."
- Cash covers the spending plan. Cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash were $1,097.2 million at 30 September 2026, against $80.3 million of debt. Natera's Q3 release guides 2026 cash flow to be positive.
Bear case
- The CEO left on results day. Steve Chapman resigned as CEO, President and director effective 5 November 2026 after more than seven years, per the Q3 10-Q, which reports no disagreement. He stays on as a consultant and adviser to the board. The company gave no reason beyond timing.
- Losses were wider than forecast. The Q3 loss of $0.42 per share missed Benzinga's $0.29 estimate. The net loss was $59.9 million, per the 5 November 2026 release.
- Gains from revenue-estimate changes are shrinking. Changes in revenue estimates added about $32.3 million in Q3 2026, against $52.3 million in Q2 2026 and $55.1 million in Q3 2025, per the Q3 release and 10-Q. The Q3 amount lifted gross margin by 1.5 percentage points.
- Broker targets moved down. JPMorgan cut its target to $405 and Evercore ISI to $400 on 6 November 2026, per Benzinga. Baird's $403 target of 9 November 2026 was also a cut, per Benzinga.
- Senior managers sold shares just before the report. SEC Form 4 filings show that on 2 November 2026 Moshkevich sold 3,419 shares at an average of $409.77 and Chapman sold 3,801 at $411.80, both under Rule 10b5-1 trading plans. A Rule 10b5-1 plan sets a schedule of sales in advance.
Price setup
The shares closed at $391.03 on 4 November 2026 and fell to $310.67 on 6 November 2026, per adjusted daily closes. The close of $319.82 on 11 November 2026 is below the 50-day moving average of $379.91 and above the 200-day moving average of $270.49.
The price context puts the three-month change at 2.9%, measured from a close of $310.78 on 13 August 2026. In other words, the October run-up has been fully reversed. The 52-week intraday high is $437.41, set on 6 October 2026. The 52-week closing low is $182.65, set on 27 March 2026.
Insiders sold into the run-up and kept selling after the drop, all under 10b5-1 trading plans. On 2 November 2026, seven officers and directors sold at average prices between $394.97 and $411.80, per SEC Form 4 filings. Director Jonathan Sheena sold 3,150 shares at an average of $316.00 on 6 November 2026, per a Form 4 filed on 10 November 2026.
Catalysts ahead
- 8 December 2026: San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium, 8–11 December 2026; Natera has not announced any Signatera abstracts. Breast cancer is one of Signatera's largest monitoring markets; new data there would be the first clinical update under the new CEO.
- ~11 January 2027 (est.): JPMorgan Healthcare Conference, Moshkevich's first major investor appearance as CEO. Shows whether the new CEO keeps the $6 billion 2029 revenue goal and whether 2026 revenue is tracking above or inside the $3.005–$3.035 billion guide.
- ~25 February 2027 (est.): Q4 2026 report and 2027 guidance. Shows whether Signatera keeps adding more than 30,000 clinical units a quarter and whether growth holds as gains from revenue-estimate changes shrink.
What would change the view
A daily close above $363.76, the 5 November 2026 close before the third-quarter report, which would show the shares recovering the post-report loss and leading the S&P 500. Preliminary 2026 revenue above the $3.035 billion top of the guide would also show the shares leading.
What it trades with
Natera trades with other cancer-diagnostics stocks, especially companies selling MRD and liquid-biopsy tests such as Guardant Health. Medicare coverage decisions and payer news on MRD testing tend to move these stocks together. The 6 November 2026 drop was specific to Natera: it followed the CEO change and the wider loss. Benzinga listed DraftKings and Atlassian among other large stocks falling in that day's pre-market session for their own reasons. As a fast-growing healthcare company that is not yet profitable under GAAP, Natera also tends to move with investors' appetite for growth stocks.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Q3 2026 revenue was $794.0 million, up 34.1% from $592.2 million; about 339,500 oncology tests were processed, up 60.9%. Natera Q3 2026 results release, 8-K Exhibit 99.1 · as of
- Full-year 2026 revenue guidance was raised to $3.005–$3.035 billion from $2.85–$2.91 billion; 2026 cash flow is guided to be positive. Natera Q3 2026 results release, 8-K Exhibit 99.1 · as of
- Q3 2026 loss per share was $0.42 against a $0.29 estimate; revenue beat the $704.9 million estimate. Benzinga, 5 November 2026 · as of
- Clinical MRD units were about 316,000, up 56% from 202,000 and up about 33,000 from Q2; Signatera's average selling price was about $1,290. Natera Q3 2026 earnings call · as of
- Steve Chapman resigned as CEO effective 5 November 2026; Solomon Moshkevich, a 15-year Natera executive, was named CEO. Natera Q3 2026 10-Q; MedTech Dive 6 November 2026 · as of
- JPMorgan lowered its target to $405 (Overweight), Evercore ISI to $400 (Outperform) and Baird to $403 (Outperform). Benzinga, 6 November 2026 and 9 November 2026 · as of
- Natera and Incyte agreed a Phase II colorectal cancer trial of INCA33890 that enrols Signatera MRD-positive patients and uses Signatera as a primary and secondary endpoint. Natera press release, 10 November 2026 · as of
- Natera registered up to 68,023 shares for resale by holders of a private company it acquired under a merger agreement of 2 November 2026; 45,533 shares were issued at closing. Natera Form S-3ASR, 12 November 2026 · as of
Sources
- Natera, Inc. - Form 8-K - FY2026 · sec.gov ·
- Natera, Inc. - Form 10-Q - FY2026 · sec.gov
- Natera promotes Solomon Moshkevich to CEO · medtechdive.com ·
- Natera Announces Clinical Collaboration with Incyte on Interventional Phase II Study in Colorectal Cancer · natera.com
- Natera, Inc. - Form S-3ASR - FY2026 · sec.gov ·
- Natera (NTRA) Q3 2026 Earnings Call: MRD Growth and $6 Billion 2029 Target · tradingkey.com
- Piper Sandler reiterates Natera stock rating on CEO transition · investing.com
- Media Registration Now Open: San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium 2026, December 8-11 · aacr.org
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